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50 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

The same idea applies, radiant heat loss, it's science. 

Wait, you just implied that the temperature at ground level is different than where it is officially observed, a few feet above the ground.  Then I asked what about frost that forms at higher levels even though the temperature is above freezing.  I understand radiant heat loss...

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16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Wait, you just implied that the temperature at ground level is different than where it is officially observed, a few feet above the ground.  Then I asked what about frost that forms at higher levels even though the temperature is above freezing.  I understand radiant heat loss...

So you asked a question about rooftop frost when the temp is above freezing when you already knew the answer. Ok, noted. 

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ISP tied the lowest October dew point on record at only 12°. The relative humidity was 2nd lowest at 17%. So places like the Pine Barrens can experience some strong radiational cooling tonight. 
 

MacArthur/ISP  MOSUNNY   57  12  17


https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=oct&sday=1027&eday=1231&var=min_dwpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

IMG_1692.thumb.png.0bea3345ec7c548d105afac428886651.png

IMG_1691.thumb.png.48f11776a1e882fda8247d5dc167ebc8.png

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Tomorrow will be another fair but chilly day. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 50s after starting in the 30s outside New York City and lower 40s in New York City. Afterward, it will warm up quickly early next week. The month could end with widespread temperatures well into the 70s.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 27 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. The prior record was 0.05", which was set in 1947. Today is Philadelphia's 29th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. That ties the record streak of 29 days set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. That record will very likely be broken tomorrow.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +13.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.421 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.5° (2.6° above normal).

 

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A top 10 warmest October for spots like JFK with the average high in 2nd place.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2017 71.0 0
2 2024 70.5 4
3 1971 70.2 0
4 2007 70.1 0
5 2021 69.9 0
6 1963 69.2 0
7 1995 69.0 0
8 1949 68.7 0
9 1984 68.6 0
10 1990 68.4 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1971 63.5 0
2 2017 63.2 0
3 2021 63.0 0
- 2007 63.0 0
4 1984 61.7 0
5 1995 61.6 0
6 1990 61.3 0
7 2024 61.1 4
- 1949 61.1 0
8 1954 60.1 0
9 2013 60.0 0
10 1975 59.9 0
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50 / 26 off a low of 30 and the coolest for the next 7 - 10 days.   Mid / upper 60s a bit warmer tomorrow but more clouds Tue / Wed.  Wed upper 70s / near 80.  Thu upper near /  low 80s.   Mostly dry front Thu evening into Fri morning.  Brief cool down this coming weekend before more ridging and overall above normal into the 6th.  Next shot of rain with trough/front between 6 - 8.  Dry for the next week.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Interesting. Went to take a look at this alleged streak in 1924, and one thing that caught my eye:

image.png.fd127b21e3423a4e3243288033ca0f56.png

image.png.c951b2348bda71e81b7f13fe72f267c6.png

High of 66, low of 45, with a general heavy frost throughout the Park. Wtf? I feel like you need to chop 10F off these old records to make them comparable to modern day readings. What a joke!

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5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. Went to take a look at this alleged streak in 1924, and one thing that caught my eye:

image.png.fd127b21e3423a4e3243288033ca0f56.png

image.png.c951b2348bda71e81b7f13fe72f267c6.png

High of 66, low of 45, with a general heavy frost throughout the Park. Wtf? I feel like you need to chop 10F off these old records to make them comparable to modern day readings. What a joke!

Maybe at the top of the stone castle! But zero chance with a properly sited station 5 feet AGL. I wonder how many record lows New York was cheated out of in that era due to improper siting?

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33 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Have you been below freezing yet this season? 31 for the low here. 

Nope, have hit 32 twice and 33 a few. Until the leaves are completely down i tend to run a degree or two warmer than some other local spots, thereafter im usually a degree colder.

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