October 2024

[FPizz]

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Getting bad 

 

No rain on the 12z euro for the rest of the month 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Getting bad 

 

No rain on the 12z euro for the rest of the month 

Just really impressive to see model cycle after model cycle with little or no precipitation for 10 day periods.

Only a trace here (on two days) for the month to date. 

Just so dry.  Will be interesting to see new Drought Monitor release tomorrow.

[steve392]

If this don't happen to the nyc metro area this winter... 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/ipzx5w8pREviutcR/

[Stormlover74]

Ewr made it to 61

[Allsnow]

Ct did not break their 24 hour rain total this summer. NWS deemed both reports invalid 

 

 

[forkyfork]

the wind dropped so much dust everywhere

[SACRUS]

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1958)
NYC: 87 (1897)
LGA: 82 (1958)
JFK: 79 (2008)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1944)
NYC: 34 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)
LGA: 39 (2006)

Historical:

 

1913 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco soared to 101 degrees to equal their record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1937 - An unlikely winter-like storm produced as much as ten inches of snow in Minnesota and Iowa.

1944: The 1944 Cuba – Florida hurricane, also known as the Pinar del Rio Hurricane, struck western Cuba on this day as a Category 4. This storm killed an estimated 300 people in Cuba and nine in Florida. This hurricane is currently the 7th costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricane, with an estimated $46.9 billion (2015 USD) in damages.

1987 - Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Augusta GA marked their third straight morning of record cold. A cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to parts of the central U.S. Lightning struck a bull and six cows under a tree near Battiest OK. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Late afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado north of Nappanee IN which caused half a million dollars damage. Six cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 100 degrees at Red Bluff CA was the latest such reading of record for so late in the autumn season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988: An F2 tornado carved a 6 mile long, east-northeast path through a mostly rural area of north-central Indiana. The extremely slow-moving tornado touched down 1.5 miles north of Nappanee, just 300 yards north of a high school, and shortly after that moved through a subdivision where 11 homes sustained damage.

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the foothills of Colorado. Up to three inches was reported around Denver. Echo Lake was buried under nineteen inches of snow. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the eastern and south central U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 84 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1999: Hurricane Irene moved across the Florida Keys producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves. A gust 102 mph was reported in Big Pine Key.

 

2007: A blinding sandstorm in the high desert north of Los Angeles wreaks havoc with local traffic causing a highway pileup involving dozens of vehicles. Two people die, and 16 are injured as a result of the storm, which reportedly raised dust to 1000 foot high.

 

2015: A well-defined waterspout was visible from Marquette, Michigan.

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, TriPol said:

What are the analogs of a dry autumn and la nina winter in the northeast? I bet they're not pretty.

I think the transition to la nina winters are good.

 

So I have heard guys talk about on here.

Something has to click eventually though

[cardinalland]

shades of last winter on the 2 week forecast, with the greatest positive departures over the midwest and central canada.

[cardinalland]

6 hours ago, TriPol said:

What are the analogs of a dry autumn and la nina winter in the northeast? I bet they're not pretty.

the 3 best analogs I could find (for a dry 60 period leading up to 10/15 and a La Niña) are 1964 (24.4" snow at KNYC), 1973 (23.5" snow at KNYC) and 1984 (24.1" snow at KNYC). A remarkably average set of years, for snowfall at least...

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. The mercury will recover to the upper 50s tomorrow and then lower and middle 60s on Friday. The warming trend will continue during the weekend. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern forecast to develop, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October.

The probability of a 60° October mean temperature in New York City has increased to just over 40%. Since 2020, 2021 (62.0°) and 2023 (60.5°) have seen such warmth. Since regular recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has only seen two consecutive 60° or warmer Octobers on three occasions: 1946-1947, 1949-1950, and 1953-1954.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -11.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.290 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.5° (1.6° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Back to back highs of 62 here.  

[lee59]

58 my high.

[Cfa]

Only 0.40” for September and October (so far) combined, October only at 0.10”, meanwhile March and August saw nearly a foot of rain each.

Temps have been overperforming even during this cool spell, forecasted highs in the upper 50’s have meant highs in the low/mid 60’s, I’ve been overdressed the past two days.

[FPizz]

48 minutes ago, lee59 said:

58 my high.

58 here as well

[uofmiami]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

58 here as well

Same for both my stations.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 62
JFK: 62
New Brnswck:  61
ACY: 61
TEB: 61
PHL: 60
BLM: 59
LGA: 59
ISP: 59
TTN: 59
NYC: 59

[SnoSki14]

I'm noticing rivers and creaks drying up. Will likely see moderate drought conditions expand. 

[psv88]

Currently 46 and I don’t see us dropping into the 30s. Looks like first frost will be in November this year. 

[Rjay]

0z Gfs and Cmc through day 10

 

[bluewave]

The offshore low is forecast to pull down dew points in the 20s this afternoon to further dry things out. 
 

[Tatamy]

32 with widespread frost.

[lee59]

38 here, no frost

[ForestHillWx]

35 here; 29 in the valley. 

[dmillz25]

42 here

[Poker2015]

33 here

[SACRUS]

 

37 / 32 partly cloudy.  A touch warmer today - low 60s.  Warming trend continues Fri and a beautiful weekend (another one) with low - mid 70s on Saturday and Mid/upper 70s on sunday - mainly sunny.   Mon - Tue warmest near / low 80s (in the warm spots).  Overall warmer than normal  the next 7 - 10 days and the dry continues for 9 of 10 weeks and couting.

 

[SACRUS]

Dry domain - last meaningful rain for most / widespread was Sep 29th