September 2024

[steve392]

First hoodie day of fall/winter/spring 24/25!

[MJO812]

[MANDA]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yay for the 540! 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

weather forecasters bust for today was not expecting much got soaked..instead...

I don't think so, but maybe where you live?  NWS was pretty good for the past 5 days or so.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Still pouring sheet drizzle on the uws. Very constistant band that had just not moved all day.

[psv88]

Hasn’t rained here all day 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still pouring sheet drizzle on the uws. Very constistant band that had just not moved all day.

Actually a decent soaking in SW Nassau as well, up to 0.25” per radar. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow through Wednesday will be variably cloudy with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. It will likely turn somewhat milder late in the week. Cooler air could arrive during the weekend.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. As of 2:15 MST, Phoenix had reached 113°, which demolished the daily record of 107° from 2003. The extreme heat will persist into at least midweek.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +2.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.282 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal).

 

[bluewave]

Only a 3° difference between the high and low in NYC today is the tied for the 2nd smallest for the month of September since 1943.
 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         63   1055 AM  88    1945  71     -8       63       
  MINIMUM         60    838 AM  42    1888  58      2       59   

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=NYC&v=smallest&month=sep&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[steve392]

Rain guage is just under 1 inch if rain since this mist has started Friday. 

[SRRTA22]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not happening, it's too early...it is nice to start seeing the change in the long run though

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1945)
NYC: 88 (1945)
LGA: 86 (1945)
JFK: 82 (1948)

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1942)
NYC: 42 (1942)
LGA: 43 (1942)
JFK: 44 (2000)

Historical:

 

1927 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Oklahoma to Indiana caused 81 deaths and 25 million dollars damage. A tornado (possibly two tornadoes) cut an eight-mile long path across Saint Louis MO, to Granite City IL, killing 79 persons. The damage path at times was a mile and a quarter in width. The storm followed a similar path to tornadoes which struck in 1871, 1896, and 1959. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - A storm produced 28 inches of snow at Colorado Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Heavy rains began in central and eastern Arizona which culminated in the worst flood in the history of the state. Eight to ten inch rains across the area caused severe flooding in southeastern Arizona which resulted in thirteen deaths and 178 million dollars damage. President Reagan declared eight counties of Arizona to be disaster areas. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A week of violent weather began in Oklahoma which culminated in one of the worst flooding events in the history of the state. On the first day of the week early morning thunderstorms caused more than a million dollars damage in south Oklahoma City. Thunderstorms produced 4 to 7 inches of rain from Hobart to Ponca City, and another round of thunderstorms that evening produced 7 to 10 inches of rain in north central and northeastern sections of Oklahoma. (Storm Data)

1987 - A slow moving cold front produced rain from the Great Lakes Region to the Central Gulf Coast Region. A late afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. In Oregon, the afternoon high of 96 degrees at Medford was a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High pressure brought freezing temperatures to parts of Vermont and New York State. Burlington VT dipped to 30 degrees, and Binghamton NY reported a record low of 34 degrees. The high pressure system also brought cold weather to the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Alamosa CO reported a record low of 18 degrees, and Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of just five degrees above zero. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the 80s and low 90s in the Northern Plateau and Northern Plains Region. Record highs included 91 degrees at Boise ID, and 92 degrees at Sheridan WY. The high of 100 degrees at Tucson AZ marked their 51st record high of the year, and their 92nd day of 100 degree weather. (National Weather Summary)

[bluewave]

September will finish very close to average temperatures as the warm and cool departures canceled each other out. 
 

EWR….+0.5

NYC….-0.4

LGA….-1.3….strong flow off Sound kept LGA the coolest

JFK…..+1.1…easterly flow from Nassau reduced the usual SW sea breeze

HPN….+0.2

ISP…...-0.1

BDR….-0.9

New Brunswick…0.0

SMQ….+0.6

POU……+0.6

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Nyc-ewr close to a inch of rain yesterday with that stationary band of rain 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 58 cloudy although some breaks.  Hung up upper low that sucked up Helene slowly pushing out offshore the next 48 hours.  Mainly cloudy and near normal till then with little rain other than more drizzle showers.  Sunnier by later Wed and Thu and into the coming weekend, Fri near 80 and the warmest for a while / till next year  (Sat potential showers).     Cooler look by the 7/8th and some chill showing up on some forecasts so perhaps 40s metro and 30s inland mid month between 9th - 12/13.  Likely ridging returns after mid month.

 

[wdrag]

Minor interest example: big forest fire in WY as seen in pix yesterday and the 06z/30 HRRR vertically integrated smoke, plus its modeled east and south spread by late Tuesday night. Click for clarity and see the legend info.  Vertically integrated implies where coverage is heavy...hazy sunshine... but does not reflect near surface smoke which is expected to be confined to WY and possibly w Dakoas. 

[Eduardo]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Oh dear.  As pretty as it looks my man, let’s not start torturing ourselves already….. 

[forkyfork]

a month of blocking and the best we could do was match our highest 30 year sept average ever

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

a month of blocking and the best we could do was match our highest 30 year sept average ever

Where are you going to get cold air this time of year?   Arctic sea ice is at its lowest extent in Sept.   

[Dark Star]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Where are you going to get cold air this time of year?   Arctic sea ice is at its lowest extent in Sept.   

Not cold air, but cooler air should have been expected with this setup.  Obviously it is not winter.  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1986)
NYC: 89 (1986)
LGA: 88 (1988)
JFK: 84 (1986)


Lows:

EWR: 38 (1942)
NYC: 39 (1912)
LGA: 43 (1947)
JFK: 43 (1991)

Historical:

1896 - A hurricane formed on September 22 and lasted until September 30. It formed directly over the Lesser Antilles and hit Cuba, Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. Its maximum sustained winds were at 130 mph. The heaviest rainfall deposited in association with the storm was 19.96 inches at Glennville, Georgia. This hurricane was responsible for an estimated 130 deaths and $1.5 million in damage (1896 dollars).

1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data)

1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: The past month was the coldest September ever recorded in interior Alaska. Fairbanks averaged a frigid 31.7° which was 13.2° below normal and the first below freezing September ever. Beginning on the 9th and on every day for the rest of the month, a new record low was set for either low minimums or low maximums, or both. On this date, the city plunged to 3° to set a new all-time record low for September. Snowfall for the month totaled 24.4 inches which was more than three times the previous record for September.

 

 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

a month of blocking and the best we could do was match our highest 30 year sept average ever

Can we just get a good costal storm? 

[steve392]

Gorgeous day out.  72 degrees. Nice to see the sun out again. 

[kat5hurricane]

So much for the gloomy cloudy day. Gorgeous cloudless day here in Midtown.

[Dark Star]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

So much for the gloomy cloudy day. Gorgeous cloudless day here in Midtown.

Ridge's nose must be exactly over our area?

[Cfa]

Clear skies for the first time in ages.

[donsutherland1]

September finished with a mean temperature of 68.8° in New York City. That was 0.4° below normal.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be variably cloudy with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. It will likely turn somewhat milder late in the week. Cooler air could arrive during the weekend.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. As of 2 pm MST, Phoenix had a high temperature of 106°. The extreme heat will persist into the weekend.

October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +6.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.156 today.

[psv88]

72 today

[donsutherland1]

New York City's daily summary for September.

[EWR757]

Less than 1" of rain for much of the area in September, yet the average cloud cover was 60% with the second half of the month being relatively cloudy.