August 2024

[SI Mailman]

Looks like something blowing up over Newark and heading south directly towards me

[mob1]

13 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Looks like something blowing up over Newark and heading south directly towards me

Getting torrential rain now

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1948)
NYC: 103 (1948)
LGA: 103 (1948)
JFK: 100 (1948)


Lows:

EWR: 51 (1942)
NYC: 53 (1887)
LGA: 53 (1940)
JFK: 53 (1963)

Historical:


 

1864 - A train running from Cincinnati to Chicago was derailed by a tornado in Dearborn County, Indiana, or 75 miles southeast of Indianapolis. Two passenger cars were lifted from the tracks and dropped in a ravine which injured 30 people.

1883 - Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. (David Ludlum)

1949 - A hurricane made landfall at Delray Beach. Winds reached 153 mph at the Jupiter Lighthouse before the anemometer failed. The hurricane caused 45 million dollars damage to crops, and also caught the Georgia and South Carolina coast resulting in another two million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1965 - Late night severe thunderstorms associated with an unusually strong late summer cold front produced 100 mph winds straight line winds in the Chicago area and northwest Indiana. In Lake County IND, high winds derailed a train near Crown Point, and left a canoe suspended among telephone lines. Two nights later the temperature at Midway Airport in Chicago dipped to 43 degrees, establishing a record for the month of August. (Storm Data) (Hugh Crowther)

1976 - A weak tornado touched down briefly in the Hockley Hills near Kiana, AK, about 29 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms drenched northern Illinois during the morning and afternoon hours pushing August rainfall totals for Chicago, Moline and Peoria to new all-time highs for any month of the year. By the end of August, Chicago had received 17.10 inches of rain, which easily surpassed the previous record of 14.17 inches established in September 1961. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A dozen cities in Texas, Colorado and California reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 100 degrees at Pueblo CO, 106 degrees at Wichita Falls TX, and 109 degrees at Redding CA. Afternoon thunderstorms in Utah deluged the town of Beaver with more than an inch of rain in twenty minutes. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Anchorage, AK, was soaked with a steady rain, and the 24 hour total of 4.12 inches smashed their previous 24 hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. It also pushed their rainfall total for the month past their previous record for August. (The National Weather Summary)

1992 - Hurricane Andrew made a second landfall near Burns Point, LA as a Category 3 hurricane. Morgan City, LA recorded sustained winds of 92 mph with a peak gust of 108 mph. Hammond, LA was deluged with 11.92 inches of rain. As Andrew moved inland and weakened, it spawned 47 tornadoes from this date through the 28th from the South to the Mid-Atlantic States.

[SACRUS]

1948 heatwave

 

https://mholloway63.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/what-happened-on-august-26th-the-northeastern-heat-wave-of-1948/

[psv88]

Estimates now that the Suffolk floods caused more than $100 million in damage. Glad to see a federal disaster declared so the area can be repaired and renewed. 

[Rtd208]

SPC Day 2 Outlook

 

[bluewave]

Looks like mid to perhaps a few upper 90s tomorrow at the usual warm spots. Even the areas from Huntington to Commack can reach these highs with strong westerly flow. Then we get backdoored with much cooler temps and Canadian high pressure to follow. Trying to figure out convection with back doors and westerly flow can be tricky. So will probably be a nowcast event. 
 

 

 

[jm1220]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like mid to perhaps a few upper 90s tomorrow at the usual warm spots. Even the areas from Huntington to Commack can reach these highs with strong westerly flow. Then we get backdoored with much cooler temps and Canadian high pressure to follow. Trying to figure out convection with back doors and westerly flow can be tricky. So will probably be a nowcast event. 
 

 

 

At least with back doors this time of year they don’t come with gunky stratus clouds and mist. But if we’re going back to a pattern with troughs/high pressure to our NE it will be hard to sustain any kind of heat. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

67 / 65 clear.   Warm today more mid-upper 80s and we'll see if there are some 90/low 90s in the warmer spots.  Wed hottest day till next year (likely) mid 90s, if clouds dont get in the way perhaps some upper 90s.  Isolated storms overnight wed into Thu.  Onshore (NE) flow keeps it in the upper 70s to around 80 Thu and again Fri - perhaps a touch warmer on Friday more scattered storms possible both days so cloudy at times.  Saturday and Sunday both could have showers/storms, Saturday looks cloudy with front nearby.   Drier Labor day and very nice near 80.   Cooler Sep 3 - 6th. 

 

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least with back doors this time of year they don’t come with gunky stratus clouds and mist. But if we’re going back to a pattern with troughs/high pressure to our NE it will be hard to sustain any kind of heat. 

Looks like Wed  will be the last shot of 90 through Sep 7th.  Beyond there we'll see but appear more humid than hot.  Perhaps a second half Sep warmup .

[Stormlover74]

Thunderstorm coverage looks pretty sparse for tomorrow despite being in a slight risk.

[gravitylover]

Can we please have today's weather on Saturday 

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thunderstorm coverage looks pretty sparse for tomorrow despite being in a slight risk.

yeah models literally have nothing until you are well S and W of NYC

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

We need rain 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We need rain 

Gfs is wet this weekend

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We need rain 

I'll just change that to we need "some" rain.  Things are starting to crisp again.  Especially with the sunny skies and late season heat of yesterday, today and tomorrow.  So we need "some" rain just not the deluges of late.  Either too much or not enough.  We need rain totals to be spread out more evenly. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah models literally have nothing until you are well S and W of NYC

Hrrr has activity now. Nam hits Philly to AC

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has activity now. Nam hits Philly to AC

That’s why I mentioned that convection forecasts with backdoors can be tricky. Sometimes the westerly flow ahead of the front instead of SW can limit moisture convergence. So we end up with widely scattered to not much. But on a few occasions we’re were able to manage more widespread severe storms. So probably a nowcast since each model is showing the convection in different locations. 

[steve392]

These temps just kill ya when you got an upper respiratory infection.  Just don't want to even stay outside even though fresh air would better for me. 

 

90 in little ferry, nj. 

[jm1220]

Severe threat trimmed north of I-195 for tomorrow, looks like a better shot for the South Jersey Alley stretch. 

[Allsnow]

Rain chances quickly evaporating 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Rain chances quickly evaporating 

hopefully they go away for this weekend too

[donsutherland1]

The temperature rose to 86° in New York City and 87° at Newark. Tomorrow will be even warmer as an air mass that brought the temperature to a record 99° in Chicago comes eastward.

The temperature could soar to 90° or above as far north as southern New England. It is likely that Baltimore and Washington, DC will reach heatwave status as the mercury rises into the upper 90s and approaches 100°.

A fresh shot of Canadian air will arrive late in the week to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +22.09 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.801 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

 

[winterwx21]

It hit 91 here today. The last 2 days it was 89, so we just barely missed having a 4 day heat wave here. 

[winterwx21]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr has activity now. Nam hits Philly to AC

I see on the 18z run the HRRR has almost nothing for tomorrow, but then hits us during the overnight hours. We'll be coming up on 10 days without rain so we could use some, but I'm not very high on this threat. It looks mostly to the south but we'll see. 

[doncat]

87° the popular number for high temp last 3 days.

[Stormlover74]

35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see on the 18z run the HRRR has almost nothing for tomorrow, but then hits us during the overnight hours. We'll be coming up on 10 days without rain so we could use some, but I'm not very high on this threat. It looks mostly to the south but we'll see. 

I see spc shifted south again taking us almost out of slight risk 

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

I feel like we've been in this back and forth for awhile now.  Happens every season.  The last consistent pretty nice fall I remember was 2021.

 

BTW, @bluewavedo you have any stats on where Fall 2021 fell in terms of top 10 warmest?  I know October was pretty amazing, must have been at least +5 AN unless I'm mis-remembering.