August 2024

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I feel like we've been in this back and forth for awhile now.  Happens every season.  The last consistent pretty nice fall I remember was 2021.

 

BTW, @bluewavedo you have any stats on where Fall 2021 fell in terms of top 10 warmest?  I know October was pretty amazing, must have been at least +5 AN unless I'm mis-remembering.

October was +6.9 at ewr..November was average 

[SACRUS]

Highs:


PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 89
EWR: 87
TEB: 87
LGA: 87
TTN: 87
BLM: 86
NYC: 86
ISP: 85
ACY: 86
JFK: 84

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 100 (1993)
NYC: 101 (1948)
LGA: 99 (1948)
JFK: 101 (1948)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1940)
NYC: 50 (1885)
LGA: 5 (1940)
JFK: 59 (1989)

Historical:

 

1854 - A tornado struck downtown Louisville around noon on Sunday, August 27th, 1854. It first touched down near 25th Street, southwest of downtown and lifted at the intersection of 5th and Main Streets. Although the tornado was only on the ground for a little over two miles, the twister claimed at least 25 lives. Many of those who perished were killed in the Third Presbyterian Church, where 55 people were gathered for Sunday church services. Straight-line winds that accompanied the tornado did significant damage to the Ohio River, where at least one boat sunk.

 

1881: A Category 2 Hurricane made landfall between St. Simons Island and Savannah, Georgia, on this day. Landfall coincided with high tide and proved very destructive. The hurricane killed 700 people, including 335 in Savannah, making it the sixth deadliest hurricane in the United States.

 

1883: Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the airwave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888.

1893 - The first of three great hurricanes that year struck South Carolina drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. (David Ludlum)

1893: An estimated Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Georgia on this day. This hurricane produced a high storm surge of 16 to 30 feet which cost the lives of 1,000 to 2,000 people. As of now, this storm is one of the top 5, deadliest hurricanes on record for the USA.

1964 - Hurricane Cleo battered Miami and the South Florida area. It was the first direct hit for Miami in fourteen years. Winds gusted to 135 mph, and the hurricane caused 125 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Elko, NV, was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Washington D.C. soared to a record hot 100 degrees, while clouds and rain to the north kept temperature readings in the 50s in central and southeastern New York State. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 75 mph near the White Sands Missile Range, and produced three inches of rain in two hours near the town of Belen. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Belleville KS, and tennis ball size hail south of Lincoln NE. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Saint Joseph MO. Thunder- storms in North Dakota deluged the town of Linton with six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2013 - Numerous severe thunderstorms brought large hail along with wind gusts from 60 to 90 mph to parts of north central and northeast South Dakota. Numerous trees were downed along with many structures damaged. Eighty mph winds near Polo in Hand County snapped off two large cottonwood trees. Ninety mph winds snapped numerous trees off at their base along with destroying a garage and tipping several campers over onto their side at Cottonwood Lake near Redfield.

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina reached Category 3 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

 

 

 

[psv88]

87 today. Scorcher tomorrow 

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

October was +6.9 at ewr..November was average 

Crazy, although not surprising about November I guess based on warming trends.

[Rtd208]

SPC Day 1 Outlook

 

[bluewave]

The high to the north corrected stronger than originally forecast. So 90s forecast right down to the South Shore beaches with rare WNW flow 90s. One of the few 90s days without onshore flow. Could be the warmest day of the summer for JFK which has only made it to 93° due to all the onshore flow.

New run

Old run

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The high to the north corrected stronger than originally forecast. So 90s forecast right down to the South Shore beaches with rare WNW flow 90s. One of the few 90s days without onshore flow. Could be the warmest day of the summer for JFK which has only made it to 93° due to all the onshore flow.

New run

Old run

Yep, maybe mid 90s today if we can get the downslope WNW flow. 

[Allsnow]

High for Friday is forecasted to be 74 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

High for Friday is forecasted to be 74 

Doesn't seem very Nina like in LR. Tropics still mostly dead, lots of strong troughs digging east.

[SACRUS]

76 / 65 some clouds.  On the way to low - mid 90s, enough sun gets the warm spots to he 96-97 range, but looking a bit cloudy and highest till next year. Onshore flow tomorrow with coouds keeps it in the 70s.   Clear Friday but strong NE flow remains cooler in the 70s.  Weekend looks 2/3 days with clouds and showers before drying out Labor day itself.   Cooler Sep 3 - 7.  Beyond there near normal.

 

 

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't seem very Nina like in LR. Tropics still mostly dead, lots of strong troughs digging east.

Yup. I warned people months ago to pump the breaks on those high expectations. 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. I warned people months ago to pump the breaks on those high expectations. 

For our sake for the winter hopefully that turns around. A low ACE Nina winter is usually a complete dud. But like others said not much to turn it around when most of the Atlantic is choked in stable dry air. 

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For our sake for the winter hopefully that turns around. A low ACE Nina winter is usually a complete dud. But like others said not much to turn it around when most of the Atlantic is choked in stable dry air. 

Meh, winter is probably going to suck either way 

[Snowlover11]

shitty weekend in tap go figure my only getaway to the shore this year.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

shitty weekend in tap go figure my only getaway to the shore this year.

It won't be that bad

[Allsnow]

38 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

shitty weekend in tap go figure my only getaway to the shore this year.

Rain Sunday but the rest of the weekend looks nice 

[winterwx21]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It won't be that bad

Yeah maybe some showers/storms late Saturday. Sunday and Monday look good. I'll be having my cookouts Sunday and Monday, so I don't care if it rains Saturday anyway. We'll be needing some rain too after a long dry stretch, assuming we don't get anything today.

Not too optimistic about later today. I see on the 12 runs HRRR and both NAM models don't have much activity. It looks like just a slight chance (I'd go with 20%). I'm going down to Seaside Heights this afternoon. Weather looks good for that. 

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 70 hottest (at this hour) since August 1

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Meh, winter is probably going to suck either way 

6 months of autumn. 

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

6 months of autumn. 

Yup, unless we get some type of 20-21 miracle that nobody saw coming 

[winterwx21]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, unless we get some type of 20-21 miracle that nobody saw coming 

At least last winter was an example of how we can get lucky and get a decent amount of snow in a very warm winter. Our area in Central Jersey got over 20 inches of snow. Not bad. Hopefully we can pull that off again if we have another very warm winter. 

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At least last winter was an example of how we can get lucky and get a decent amount of snow in a very warm winter. Our area in Central Jersey got over 20 inches of snow. Not bad. Hopefully we can pull that off again if we have another very warm winter. 

Yup, I was 1" below average.  Plus, I'm loving the group think of a bad winter.  Group think rarely pans out.    

[psv88]

88/74 now. One last brutal day until next July. 

[winterwx21]

Next week looks spectacular. A decent cool shot to start the week, but I also don't think the week overall is looking as cool as it did a couple days ago. I think we quickly moderate back to low 80s for mid to late week. Near normal temps will feel great with low humidity. 

[FPizz]

86/74  Rather cloudy

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

88/74 now. One last brutal day until next July. 

Can’t rule out a late heat surge next month. But looks cooler than average if anything for the next week. 

[LoboLeader1]

89/70 currently, partly cloudy sky.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

At least last winter was an example of how we can get lucky and get a decent amount of snow in a very warm winter. Our area in Central Jersey got over 20 inches of snow. Not bad. Hopefully we can pull that off again if we have another very warm winter. 

I ended with about 15” here. Given our 30 year average here in the mid 30s per winter, anything below 20” I’d consider an F. Until the Pacific pattern meaningfully changes we have to significantly beat the odds to get even an average snow winter. Temps well above average are just about given. Maybe we can time a relaxation of the PAC jet for a snow event or two. Or buy a cabin in MT/the Dakotas where there’s actually still winter. 

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, unless we get some type of 20-21 miracle that nobody saw coming 

Gee it's not even Labor Day lol..BTW I see the first sign of colors on the trees the last few days.