July 2024

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

That Atantic ridge is forecast to soar to a >630DM 500MB height and act like a proverbial wall as the boundary has waves of moisture ride up it.  Would think we have some +6 inches jack pots in the MA

Especially the areas that get the best training. 
 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

dewpoint 64 feels nice...

Hoodie?

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Especially the areas that get the best training. 
 

Yes!!!

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Especially the areas that get the best training. 
 

That is mostly before noon on Saturday then drying out a bit?

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

That is mostly before noon on Saturday then drying out a bit?

Yeah, this is the SPC HREF max potential through 12z Saturday since it only runs out 48 hrs. But if the WAR verifies stronger, then the front could slow down and linger past 12z especially the further to the east you get. The 0z and 12z runs tomorrow should be more definitive on the timing as it get with in the more reliable  range. 

[psv88]

Spiked a quick 90, 88 now. Dew down to 70. 

[steve392]

Not a drop of rain overnight.  All fizzled as it reached my area.  

And it's just as hot as yesterday too. Zero relief. 

[FPizz]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
243 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-120900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0007.240712T1000Z-240713T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Pottstown, Flemington, Lansdale, Kennett
Square, Chalfont, Norristown, Collegeville, Perkasie, Honey
Brook, Mount Holly, Doylestown, Oxford, Freehold, Wilmington,
Media, Camden, Philadelphia, Moorestown, West Chester,
Somerville, Glassboro, New Brunswick, Trenton, Morrisville,
Cherry Hill, and Pennsville
243 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following
  area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas,
  Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern
  Burlington, Salem, Somerset and Western Monmouth, and southeast
  Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Delaware, Eastern
  Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, Upper
  Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Widespread showers and thunderstorms combined with tropical
    moisture will result in areas of heavy rainfall across the
    watch area from Friday morning through Saturday. Rainfall
    rates may exceed 1 to 2 inches per hour. Forecast rainfall
    amounts range from about 1 to 2 inches, however localized
    amounts near 3 to 4 inches are possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

---

 

 

[dWave]

Funny how 90 dew 64 feels kinda nice now, especially in the shade

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

There was a MET here who argued for cooler-said something about the jet stream being displaced south or something like that....

Also that we would only see 6-10 90+ days was something I saw a lot of. And that most of the heat would be over the top. I guess the heat is over the top as in insanely hot and humid. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Especially the areas that get the best training. 
 

Euro is also similiar . Slightly west with the heavier rain.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is also similiar . Slightly west with the heavier rain.

The Euro has a pretty slow frontal passage with the record WAR so convection lingers into the afternoon.

[LoboLeader1]

As of 3:30, temp 90/DP 64/RH 47 

 

[Snowlover11]

wonder if upton pulls the trigger on some flood watches.

[LoboLeader1]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has a pretty slow frontal passage with the record WAR so convection lingers into the afternoon.

Hope that verifies, my sprinkler system could use the break.

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 96 here.

Current temp 90/DP 68/RH 49%

[Snowlover11]

89/67

 

Been holding steady at 89 for a few hours.

[FPizz]

86/69.  I'll take it!

[MANDA]

Latest from WPC.

Impressive overall pattern.  Some spots could see 3"+ amounts.

 

[Rtd208]

[winterwarlock]

Heatwave over for me...failed to hit 90...only 89 today...heatwave ends at 7 days tying the first heatwave. Some areas did hit 90 or above today so there heatwave did become 8 days. I think the showers last night that dumped about .60 of rain was a factor.

[winterwx21]

It hit 91 here, but felt pretty comfortable with the dew point in the mid 60s. Felt so much better exercising outside today than it did on Tuesday when the dew point was in the mid 70s. The 10 degree dew point drop really makes a big difference. 

[LIWeatherGuy29]

19 hours ago, psv88 said:

I’ve had 0.25” of rain so far this month. I would take it. 

Last decent rain here in SW Nassau County was June 29th. Very little rain here since then.

[jm1220]

Another Ambrose Jet day. JFK gusting to 30. It’s been crazy this summer. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Another Ambrose Jet day. JFK gusting to 30. It’s been crazy this summer. 

Has really kept the high temperatures in check this month at JFK wit the maxes running 0.0 and the mins +1.5.

[steve392]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Another Ambrose Jet day. JFK gusting to 30. It’s been crazy this summer. 

These days feel heat by me in se Bergen.  Winds flow up hackensack river.  Was gorgeous on my evening walk around lake with the winds. 

[MJO812]

We need rain

[JetsPens87]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has a pretty slow frontal passage with the record WAR so convection lingers into the afternoon.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some training convection in this instance

[donsutherland1]

Some showers or thundershowers are possible tomorrow into Saturday. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is possible. It will turn slightly cooler before heat begins to return during the weekend. The beginning of next week could be hot and humid.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Las Vegas topped out at 118°, its third highest figure on record. Las Vegas also reached 115° or above for a record sixth consecutive day. Milford, UT reached an all-time record 108°.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -31.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.069 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.

 

[SACRUS]

Highs:
 

EWR: 93
BLM: 92
New Brnswck: 91
TEB: 90
LGA: 90
NYC: 89
TTN: 89
PHL: 89
JFK:  88
ACY: 88
ISP: 86