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2024 Severe Weather General Discussion


Kmlwx
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It's early, but might as well do the annual severe thread (people were talking about it in the long range thread!). 

I don't have the @WxWatcher007 scale handy on this computer - but I usually post it for posterity for the upcoming severe season. Anything from discussing past events to potential upcoming patterns/analogs, and discussion about more specific upcoming threats can be posted in here. A while ago we stopped doing event-specific severe threads for most things. Whether we do that or not - this is the general thread. 

Have at it! 

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I was thinking today how verified severe in any given backyard is nearly as rare as a HECS. I’ve only directly measured severe winds once (61 MPH. 2015?). Then in 2022 what I presume to be a microburst/tornado occurred, where nearly 10 trees came down in a 1-acre area.

Are there any stats for the airports for severe? Do they track days with verified severe storms?

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10 minutes ago, George BM said:

Unsolicited local severe outbreak rankings IMO since 2000:

MCSs:

1. June 29, 2012

2. June 4, 2008

3. August 26, 2003

Tornadoes:

1. September 17, 2004

2. September 24, 2001

3. April 28, 2002

Ultimately it's going to be very specific if we are talking about personalized backyard results. But area wide it doesn't get much more intense than June 29, 2012 

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Ultimately it's going to be very specific if we are talking about personalized backyard results. But area wide it doesn't get much more intense than June 29, 2012 

I had a pretty diesel microburst roll through my spot in Bethesda a week prior to that, too.

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42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has a really good objective track record. Even without Ellinwood or Ian posting much of something legit is on the way the usually come back to post. 

Not to mention their ideas can generally be found elsewhere on the interwebs as well! I just hope we don't drop into a months long doldrum of boring weather. I can deal with little stretches of beautiful weather...but prolonged stretches get BORING. 

Hopefully we get some nasty freezes late season to cut down on the mosquito populations 

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Hmmm

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid- to upper-level
   trough ejecting into the central U.S. by late Tuesday into
   Wednesday.  A deep cyclone is currently progged by most ensemble
   members to move from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes
   vicinity.  Preceding this upper trough, an antecedent re-charging of
   steep lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer over the
   southern High Plains is forecast.  A few days of airmass
   modification, both in terms of ambient temperature and moistening
   over the Gulf Basin, will occur in wake of frontal passage on
   Saturday.  Northward moisture return beneath the aforementioned EML
   will probably result in a substantial warm sector by late afternoon
   Tuesday and into Wednesday farther east.  Model run-to-run
   continuity is such that there is increased confidence in the
   introduction of 15-percent severe-risk highlights with the expected
   eastward progression of the trough.  Will defer the possibility of
   an additional area farther east on Thursday until confidence in
   details related to earlier days becomes more focused.

   ..Smith.. 02/22/2024
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Also, from yesterday afternoon AFD from LWX 

 

Warmer air arrives on Tuesday with a warm front feature knocking on
the Mid-Atlantic`s doorstep. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday
through Thursday with Tuesday likely being the least impactful
locally. A trailing low pressure system center across the northern
Great Plains will begin moving further east throughout the middle
portion of the week. Some signals in the ensembles and machine-
learning guidance hints at the potential for some severe weather in
the form of damaging winds for the mid-week system. Locally, the
best chances would be if the trough becomes negatively tilted as it
approaches the Mid-Atlantic. There is still considerable uncertainty
with this system with respect to potential impacts. We will continue
to monitor this. In other news, high temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will mainly be in the 60s for most areas with even 70
degrees being possible in some areas on Wednesday. Winds will also
be gusty Tuesday to Thursday with southeasterly winds gusting 15 to
25 knots at times, especially in the afternoon and early evening
hours.
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Tracking *something* (even a pencil thin squall) would be fun and a welcome break from the winter crap-tracking. Obviously it's early for anything super beefy - but stranger things have happened. I personally think one reason severe tracking is a bit more "civil" and "tame" than the winter stuff is other than my stupid CIPS posting, we really don't look much beyond 8 days (from the D4-8 outlook) for severe. Save for a major signal, like 95% of our severe threat windows pop up within 7 days - and often more like inside 5 days. 

We aren't pattern hunting for weeks looking for a hint of severe. Add in that you can get a rogue pulse storm that wipes out 1000 trees and sneaky stuff is all around. 

Not looking forward to bugs and heat...but I sure as heck am ready to end the boredom of tracking nothing. 

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Excerpt from this morning's LWX disco and SPC's Day 1 outlook...incoming radar is pretty lit.

The heaviest precipitation looks arrive later this afternoon and
into this evening (3-8pm) before things quickly ending from west to
east before midnight. Thunderstorm probabilities are low, but are
not zero, for this front, given the increasing dewpoints and strong
forcing. A marginal risk for severe weather has been issued from
north-central MD and northern VA west into the MD/WV mountains.
Forecast instability values are generally less than 500 J/kg with 0-
6 km shear values over 50-60 kts. With that said, a narrow line of
shallow convection may develop along and ahead of the front later
this afternoon and evening. Lightning will be limited with wind as
the main concern as this linear convective line pushes through.
Gusts of 45-55 mph can be expected with this convective line of
showers as it pushes from west to east across the region.
Rainfall amounts 0.5 to 1 inch can be expected areawide outside
of the Alleghenies where 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected.
Flood Watches remain in effect for western Grant, western
Mineral, and Garrett counties to encompass this heavier rain
threat combined with already saturated soils and elevated from
melted snowpack in this area.

day1otlk_1200.gif

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13 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Excerpt from this morning's LWX disco and SPC's Day 1 outlook...incoming radar is pretty lit.

The heaviest precipitation looks arrive later this afternoon and
into this evening (3-8pm) before things quickly ending from west to
east before midnight. Thunderstorm probabilities are low, but are
not zero, for this front, given the increasing dewpoints and strong
forcing. A marginal risk for severe weather has been issued from
north-central MD and northern VA west into the MD/WV mountains.
Forecast instability values are generally less than 500 J/kg with 0-
6 km shear values over 50-60 kts. With that said, a narrow line of
shallow convection may develop along and ahead of the front later
this afternoon and evening. Lightning will be limited with wind as
the main concern as this linear convective line pushes through.
Gusts of 45-55 mph can be expected with this convective line of
showers as it pushes from west to east across the region.
Rainfall amounts 0.5 to 1 inch can be expected areawide outside
of the Alleghenies where 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected.
Flood Watches remain in effect for western Grant, western
Mineral, and Garrett counties to encompass this heavier rain
threat combined with already saturated soils and elevated from
melted snowpack in this area.

day1otlk_1200.gif

That MRGL has since been expanded east across the region for the 13z update.

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Oh (9:41am LWX AFD morning update)

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light rain east of the Blue Ridge continues through the morning,
with pockets of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms moving
through the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, and northern MD. The
leading edge of heavier showers/storms has started to move into
Garrett County, and will push south/east through the afternoon.
High temperatures today reach the mid to upper 60s to perhaps
70 degrees. Winds also increase out of the south/southwest at 10
to 15 mph with gusts 25-35 mph this morning into midday.

The heaviest precipitation looks arrive later this afternoon and
into this evening (3-8pm) as the main cold front crosses the
region. While instability is expected to be low, generally
around 200-400 J/kg of MLCAPE, the forcing aloft from an
approaching upper trough and strong kinematics will likely
result in at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
ahead of the front. A line of moderate to heavy showers, with
embedded thunderstorms, crosses the area this afternoon to early
evening. The strongest storms today are likely to produce gusts
of 45-55mph, and some could possibly gust up to 60mph. There is
a non-zero threat for a tornado or two given the strong shear,
with current RAP analysis indicating 35-50KT of 0-1km shear, and
around 50-60KT of bulk shear. Instability is going to be the
main limiting factor, though it won`t take much to get some
storms going given the strong forcing/shear. SPC has expanded
the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms to most of
the CWA through this evening.
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