It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[Prismshine Productions]

That sort of look evolved last month I recall... We were gawking at the blocking indicated - and equally as astonished when it sort of failed to produce.   Although we did get the 10-14"er out of that period ...even tough it was pullin' teeth to get the models to admit it was happening until the RGEM schooled the Euro   ( zoink)

RGEM got the crown so far this winter

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[brooklynwx99]

I don't see anything arguing against a flip to favorable to very favorable pattern in mid-Feb. ENS have continued to move forward in time and are in uncanny agreement. this look makes sense given that the Pacific jet will retract amidst a MJO progression into the Western Pacific and eventually the IO

Weeklies have looked very good for a while now, and the signal is increasing. all three ensembles are very similar to them at the end of their runs, as well... those looks at the end of the ensembles roll out into this:

it makes sense how you get to that point... the developing Aleutian Low forces a -EPO/+PNA that shoves the SW US trough east and it connects with the N ATL trough. this leads to wave breaking that strengthens -NAO blocking. it could be incorrect, but given that all ensembles are in such good agreement, the signal continues to move forward and strengthen in time, and it makes intuitive sense, I think that cards are stacking more favorably than unfavorably from like Feb 15 - Mar 10

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

RGEM got the crown so far this winter

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

No

[Typhoon Tip]

First for me... 

Never before seen 582 dm heights over WV latitude during the first week of February

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah...and so it goes, let's blow the roof off the top of the charts now struggling to quantize how the physics in the models are eating a steady diet of climate change heat fluxes ... lol      I doubt this happens but it sure is cool looking.  I like how the atmosphere strikes oil over San Diego

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

No

Heavy moonshine productions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I don't see anything arguing against a flip to favorable to very favorable pattern in mid-Feb. ENS have continued to move forward in time and are in uncanny agreement. this look makes sense given that the Pacific jet will retract amidst a MJO progression into the Western Pacific and eventually the IO

Weeklies have looked very good for a while now, and the signal is increasing. all three ensembles are very similar to them at the end of their runs, as well... those looks at the end of the ensembles roll out into this:

it makes sense how you get to that point... the developing Aleutian Low forces a -EPO/+PNA that shoves the SW US trough east and it connects with the N ATL trough. this leads to wave breaking that strengthens -NAO blocking. it could be incorrect, but given that all ensembles are in such good agreement, the signal continues to move forward and strengthen in time, and it makes intuitive sense, I think that cards are stacking more favorably than unfavorably from like Feb 15 - Mar 10

Yea, I had my second window ending March 3rd, so sue me if it goes another week.

 

The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic.

[George001]

Can we get one god damn BN winter month?

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...and so it goes, let's blow the roof off the top of the charts now struggling to quantize how the physics in the models are eating a steady diet of climate change heat fluxes ... lol      I doubt this happens but it sure is cool looking.  I like how the atmosphere strikes oil over San Diego

Just raining Hadley Cells and compressed geopotential mediums.....pouring.

[qg_omega]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...and so it goes, let's blow the roof off the top of the charts now struggling to quantize how the physics in the models are eating a steady diet of climate change heat fluxes ... lol      I doubt this happens but it sure is cool looking.  I like how the atmosphere strikes oil over San Diego

January of last year comes to mind

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just raining Hadley Cells and compressed geopotential mediums.....pouring.

Jokes aside … folks should be prepared for the possibility of a heat burst in February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Jokes aside … folks should be prepared for the possibility of a heat burst in February. 

I wouldn't doubt it...enough to bust all of the February temp calls, before playing catch up with snow.

[NorEastermass128]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Jokes aside … folks should be prepared for the possibility of a heat burst in February. 

80s for the interior?  Sign me up. 

[snowman19]

I wouldn't doubt it...enough to bust all of the February temp calls, before playing catch up with snow.

I think the good period is something like 2/15-2/29 then that’s all she wrote (especially south of New England) come early March. Past strong Nino analogs strongly support a substantial warmup early-mid March and this supports that idea as well:

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m certainly not buying a multi week very good pattern for mid Feb to Early March , I’d say sure it’s possible..but more likely to me Is a favorable 10-12 day period if things break semi decently . 
 

It’s often sunny in Philadelphia at Day 14+ and folks like to extrapolate that into their ideal multi week goodness, extremely skeptical of anything very good hanging around that long , gonna need a lot to fall in place for a prolonged period 

Based on climo CNE and NNE have best chance (obviously) (Dentrite North) but also as long as we are active there will be a shot that SNE gets to average with good timing (NW of 95) and doesn’t need a very good multi week pattern to do that 
 

Bos to me is a very long shot 

[Go Kart Mozart]

On the 6z gfs, you can see the  relaxation of isophyses (or whatever that Tip-word is).

You can see two paths:  If the southern stream can fully undercut we might have a sausage fest for the ages.  If it fails....get the golf clubs ready.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the good period is something like 2/15-2/29 then that’s all she wrote (especially south of New England) come early March. Past strong Nino analogs strongly support a substantial warmup early-mid March and this supports that idea as well:

No argument from me on that. My analogs were strongly in favor of a spring like March, early month winter overlap not withstanding.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m certainly not buying a multi week very good pattern for mid Feb to Early March , I’d say sure it’s possible..but more likely to me Is a favorable 10-12 day period if things break semi decently . 
 

It’s often sunny in Philadelphia at Day 14+ and folks like to extrapolate that into their ideal multi week goodness, extremely skeptical of anything very good hanging around that long , gonna need a lot to fall in place for a prolonged period 

Based on climo CNE and NNE have best chance (obviously) (Dentrite North) but also as long as we are active there will be a shot that SNE gets to average with good timing (NW of 95) and doesn’t need a very good multi week pattern to do that 
 

Bos to me is a very long shot 

Yea, sure.....I can see that. Understand that when I do things at a seasonal level in early November, I am always speaking in the aggregate.....exceedingly difficult to foresee a mild interlude for a few days.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m certainly not buying a multi week very good pattern for mid Feb to Early March , I’d say sure it’s possible..but more likely to me Is a favorable 10-12 day period if things break semi decently . 
 

It’s often sunny in Philadelphia at Day 14+ and folks like to extrapolate that into their ideal multi week goodness, extremely skeptical of anything very good hanging around that long , gonna need a lot to fall in place for a prolonged period 

Based on climo CNE and NNE have best chance (obviously) (Dentrite North) but also as long as we are active there will be a shot that SNE gets to average with good timing (NW of 95) and doesn’t need a very good multi week pattern to do that 
 

Bos to me is a very long shot 

That has been a noted/repeating theme spanning many seasons. 2015 hits that successfully, but that appears to be an outlier when objectively considering the numbers, and overall impression, created by the last 20 years.

Variances of increasing range at both intra-monthly and even intra-weekly in time scales, has been increasingly characterizing seasons.  Regardless of all leading indicators - in other words ... regardless of whether those correlate hot, cold, wet or dry, those haven't mattered.  That trend alone, logic says 'don't be as reliant.' 

Which is the flip side of the same argument, 'how can one rely on correlations (the way previous generations could) when they are based upon a D(climate)/DT ( for assist that means "change of climate" divided by "change in time"). That makes the previous climate less relevant.  I guess there's art in how much so - 

Anyway, I'm saying all this because right now the 'leading indicators' would suggest we perform better winter in February.  So... ( using this word twice in a hour) with the leitmotif of excessive changeability, whatever is causing that ( we all know what the f that is -) ... and for that matter... the El Nino is weakened while the PDO continues.  I could see this Feb having another one of those seemingly out-of-place balm weeks.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think the good period is something like 2/15-2/29 then that’s all she wrote (especially south of New England) come early March. Past strong Nino analogs strongly support a substantial warmup early-mid March and this supports that idea as well:

 

[brooklynwx99]

I think you have Feb 15 - Mar 10. I find it hard to believe that we remain cold and stormy after that point, but if blocking develops, which looks likely, I can easily see the more favorable pattern continuing into the first 10 days of March. the same happened in 1958

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think you have Feb 15 - Mar 10. I find it hard to believe that we remain cold and stormy after that point, but if blocking develops, which looks likely, I can easily see the more favorable pattern continuing into the first 10 days of March. the same happened in 1958

1958 stayed great almost to the end. The big dog HECS was around the equinox. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

1958 stayed great almost to the end. The big dog HECS was around the equinox. 

usually when you have stable blocking patterns, you need something to break them. that's where the big storm comes in

I'm still cautious given how the last couple of winters have gone, but given: 

1. tremendous agreement on all three ENS suites for the transitionary period Feb 5-10 coinciding with a weakening Pacific jet
2. ENS matching up with extended guidance nearly perfectly at the end of their runs
3. the transition moving forward in time
4. general Nino climo to force a +PNA/-AO in February

I'm pretty optimistic. this could be the best period many in the MA and NYC have had in quite some time. just want to give it another week to get those changes within a more meaningful timeframe

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1958 stayed great almost to the end. The big dog HECS was around the equinox. 

Had 18" of windblown powder Feb 15-16, then 24" paste bomb March 20-21 at our NNJ home.  March 56 thru Feb 61 in NNJ had more big snows than any other place I've lived.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

I'm pretty optimistic. this could be the best period many in the MA and NYC have had in quite some time. just want to give it another week to get those changes within a more meaningful timeframe

You strike me an optimist ..

Since nobody in the world  has shown much skill forecasting more than 3 weeks away  I would always temper expectations when things looks good 15 days away 

I know you know this and I know you know meteorology but sometimes I get the idea that you are much more confident at extends leads than warrants . But quite honestly that could also be semantics and me reading into your posts incorrectly . 

I do think a exceptional  period is possible , and I believe if things did ever line up and we got a prolonged active NE trough the ceiling is extremely high 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You strike me an optimist ..

Since nobody in the world  has shown much skill forecasting more than 3 weeks away  I would always temper expectations when things looks good 15 days away 

I know you know this and I know you know meteorology but sometimes I get the idea that you are much more confident at extends leads than warrants . But quite honestly that could also be semantics and me reading into your posts incorrectly .

I do think a exceptional  period is possible , and I believe if things did ever line up and we got a prolonged active NE trough the ceiling is extremely high 

i'm just basing it off of the general pattern progression... the one on the weeklies makes sense

you retract the Pacific jet and it leads to ridging over the WC and AK via an Aleutian Low. there's excess momentum leading to a trough over the SW US. that trough is expelled via the -EPO forming... that trough gets replaced by a +PNA

the SW US trough connects with the N Atl trough that's already present... this then leads to a E US trough as well as wave breaking that assists the development of a -NAO. at that point, you are left with the pattern on the weeklies

are the weeklies correct? who knows, they could absolutely be wrong. I can tell you that the progression they're showing makes a lot of sense, though 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm just basing it off of the general pattern progression... the one on the weeklies makes sense

you retract the Pacific jet and it leads to ridging over the WC and AK via an Aleutian Low. there's excess momentum leading to a trough over the SW US. that trough is expelled via the -EPO forming... that trough gets replaced by a +PNA

the SW US trough connects with the N Atl trough that's already present... this then leads to a E US trough as well as wave breaking that assists the development of a -NAO. at that point, you are left with the pattern on the weeklies

are the weeklies correct? who knows, they could absolutely be wrong. I can tell you that the progression they're showing makes a lot of sense, though 

I can’t argue with your meteorological reasoning , and I know when many  pros post like this they fully comprehend the limited probability at these leads times but they have the skill to identify why it makes sense and it’s a intelligent discussion that is certainly warranted , I just think the general audience has or still takes away (bc they want to)  a mistaken amount of confidence bc they don’t comprehend that ..even when it’s always couched in “feeling good or higher confidence “ they may conveniently forget that is  *Relative confidence*  to what can be forecast at these lead times . 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I can’t argue with your meteorological reasoning , and I know when many  pros post like this they fully comprehend the limited probability at these leads times but they have the skill to identify why it makes sense and it’s a intelligent discussion that is certainly warranted , I just think the general audience has or still takes away (bc they want to)  a mistaken amount of confidence bc they don’t comprehend that ..even when it’s always couched in “feeling good or higher confidence “ they may conveniently forget that is  *Relative confidence*  to what can be forecast at these lead times . 

exactly. this isn't a time when all three ensembles look totally different at D10-15 and there's little to no ENSO influence... there's a good bit higher confidence than normal 

[mahk_webstah]

Noticing that on weather underground, the temperature forecast for the first three days of February have dropped fairly substantially into highs in the low to mid 30s. We’ll have to see when we get a warm-up and how extreme and for how long I suppose.

[Hazey]

I'm starting to wonder if the GFS is suffering from some sort of de-amplification bias. That s/w on the 1st is sailing off ESE to Bermuda. Been doing that a fair amount this season.