stormy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 My 4 model blend is up to 2.00" for late Thursday night/Friday for Augusta County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 First flakes are only 48 hours away if that initial band Thursday evening materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: First flakes are only 48 hours away if that initial band Thursday evening materializes. Yeah, we need some pretty big changes in the next 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, we need some pretty big changes in the next 24 hours or so. Still have a shot for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Stand and stuff nacho cheese shells and some soft tortillas too. See you in an hour. We can talk about the upcoming HECS How many Tacos will I get in Georgetown??? Seriously, nobody has been cooking for 3 hours! I don't think I'm getting any tacos tonight! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, TinGTown said: How many Tacos will I get in Georgetown??? Seriously, nobody has been cooking for 3 hours! I don't think I'm getting any tacos tonight! Did you go buy a poncho and sand bags for the upcoming floods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esullivan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 To be fair CWG did post this https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1747305554320539685?s=61&t=STT45-cxNaT4jIGK4sinLw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, TinGTown said: How many Tacos will I get in Georgetown??? Seriously, nobody has been cooking for 3 hours! I don't think I'm getting any tacos tonight! No Tacos For You! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro looks a good bit drier through 60, but hopefully, it'll wind up just being noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Light snow across most of the area at 12Z Friday, just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Yeah drier than 12z and in decent agreement w the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, rjvanals said: Yeah drier than 12z and in decent agreement w the GFS I see a new thread been give at about 130am tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Let's hope it's an 18Z fluke and not the start of a trend. As said above, it matches the GFS pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks good for general 2-3” across the area, no temp issues which is a rarity on the coastal plain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 WB 18Z EURO....total precip. Compared to 12Z drier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 It seems like it may be time to close this thread and start a new one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We've been spoiled by 5 straight days of positive trends, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Let's hope it's an 18Z fluke and not the start of a trend. As said above, it matches the GFS pretty well. I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing. If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 22 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Did you go buy a poncho and sand bags for the upcoming floods? I seriously apologize for my outbursts last night. I was almost through a handle and was sitting by the fire pit. I decided to stay outside and watch the snow. It stopped four a couple hours and I panicked. I ended up sleeping (passed out) outside. I was covered by 4 inches of snow in the morning. No blanket just my jacket and snow pants. My wife couldn't find me and called me at 6 am. The call woke me up to a winter wonderland! F the Jeb walks! Just bitch, sleep outside during a storm, and see what you get! I was a cold old man this morning! With all the Georgetown jokes, I'm hoping for legendary status for years to come. 5 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO....total precip. Compared to 12Z drier. Just reading the model verbatim…after 4 runs trending in the right direction, we just saw our QPF chopped in half in one run… feels like a shitty run to see with our momentum. But maybe the euro is trying to start at 0 like it did for yesterday/today’s storm 4 days out. sadly we can’t withstand a full 24 hours of bad runs, not enough lead time. We need this back to 18z levels by 12z tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing. If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno. It’s more about the qpf at the coast that actually showed us close to the goods from coastal enhancement and interaction between the energies. 18z euro simply gave qpf from the s/w passage, which isn’t bad…but it’s going to be a 1-3” at best strictly from that and nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The 18z and 6z are generally always super dry 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, Ji said: The 18z and 6z are generally always super dry Let’s just go with that at least until the NAM and JV models are out at 0z. We need @stormtracker to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 44 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing. If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno. Eh, if we whiff on this and Philly and NYC get a couple inches, I won’t be losing sleep. I want a real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It’s more about the qpf at the coast that actually showed us close to the goods from coastal enhancement and interaction between the energies. 18z euro simply gave qpf from the s/w passage, which isn’t bad…but it’s going to be a 1-3” at best strictly from that and nothing else. I’m not too greedy, of course if a warning level snow is on the table I’ll take it but this hasn’t really ever looked like that. Pack refresher before a fresh arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 47 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Just reading the model verbatim…after 4 runs trending in the right direction, we just saw our QPF chopped in half in one run… feels like a shitty run to see with our momentum. But maybe the euro is trying to start at 0 like it did for yesterday/today’s storm 4 days out. sadly we can’t withstand a full 24 hours of bad runs, not enough lead time. We need this back to 18z levels by 12z tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like eps held at 18z. Might actually be a little better. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 To be fair CWG did post this https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1747305554320539685?s=61&t=STT45-cxNaT4jIGK4sinLwCalled that HoCo jackpot. Happy for my former county-mates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, jayyy said: Called that HoCo jackpot. Happy for my former county-mates! Not exactly a bold prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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