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Jan 18-19 Storm Threat: Bob Chill made me do it


stormtracker
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2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Stand and stuff nacho cheese shells and some soft tortillas too. See you in an hour. We can talk about the upcoming HECS 

How many Tacos will I get in Georgetown???  Seriously, nobody has been cooking for 3 hours!  I don't think I'm getting any tacos tonight!  

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8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Let's hope it's an 18Z fluke and not the start of a trend. As said above, it matches the GFS pretty well. 

Euro.thumb.gif.22f5eb67155faa5135c19ba61c1f143a.gif

I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing.  If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno. 

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22 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Did you go buy a poncho and sand bags for the upcoming floods?

I seriously apologize for my outbursts last night.  I was almost through a handle and was sitting by the fire pit.  I decided to stay outside and watch the snow.  It stopped four a couple hours and I panicked.  I ended up sleeping (passed out) outside.  I was covered by 4 inches of snow in the morning. No blanket just my jacket and snow pants.

My wife couldn't find me and called me at 6 am.  The call woke me up to a winter wonderland!  

F the Jeb walks!  Just bitch, sleep outside during a storm, and see what you get!  I was a cold old man this morning!

With all the Georgetown jokes, I'm hoping for legendary status for years to come.

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO....total precip. Compared to 12Z drier.

IMG_2902.png

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Just reading the model verbatim…after 4 runs trending in the right direction, we just saw our QPF chopped in half in one run…

feels like a shitty run to see with our momentum. But maybe the euro is trying to start at 0 like it did for yesterday/today’s storm 4 days out. 
 

sadly we can’t withstand a full 24 hours of bad runs, not enough lead time. We need this back to 18z levels by 12z tomorrow 

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2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing.  If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno. 

It’s more about the qpf at the coast that actually showed us close to the goods from coastal enhancement and interaction between the energies. 18z euro simply gave qpf from the s/w passage, which isn’t bad…but it’s going to be a 1-3” at best strictly from that and nothing else. 

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44 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’m worried less about run to run QPF fluctuation and more about the general orientation of the stripe, whatever happens will favor our area it seems and that’s a good thing.  If the stripe heads to Philly and nyc that’s no bueno. 

Eh, if we whiff on this and Philly and NYC get a couple inches, I won’t be losing sleep. I want a real snow.

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43 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It’s more about the qpf at the coast that actually showed us close to the goods from coastal enhancement and interaction between the energies. 18z euro simply gave qpf from the s/w passage, which isn’t bad…but it’s going to be a 1-3” at best strictly from that and nothing else. 

I’m not too greedy, of course if a warning level snow is on the table I’ll take it but this hasn’t really ever looked like that.  Pack refresher before a fresh arctic blast. 

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47 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Just reading the model verbatim…after 4 runs trending in the right direction, we just saw our QPF chopped in half in one run…

feels like a shitty run to see with our momentum. But maybe the euro is trying to start at 0 like it did for yesterday/today’s storm 4 days out. 
 

sadly we can’t withstand a full 24 hours of bad runs, not enough lead time. We need this back to 18z levels by 12z tomorrow 

cUchqxm.gif

 

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