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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why?  They are not human... if they see something, they are just not going to change because other models do not see it.  I am not saying it is right... but you need to look at all models objectively and see where they are coming from.

Because if anything other guidance has trended NW. Believe me I get it could very well end up being correct but there’s a reason WPC labeled it as an outlier. You can see the western trough axis is quite a bit different between the GFS and EURO so it logically makes sense why it would be more southeast. Guess we’re gonna find out who blinks first.

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8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That's sorta surprising, would have expected a consensus to start forming by now instead of them growing more apart. 

Problem is storm type. Volatile NS, thin margins, and development at our latitude. Far far different that the recent fail that lifted out of the gulf. If you were around in 2013-15 winters we had a lot of this stuff and it was never resolved until 72 hours at best. Some of the events those winters actually popped up at 72-96hr leads with no previous signal. 

The goal posts haven't really changed. Somewhere between a complete whiff and a good storm. Any time you have a setup where models are developing snow basically overhead, don't get married to anything until that development is within 72 hours minimum. These snow events are very complicated from  NWP perspective. They have a long history of being phantoms and booms. That said, this setup is our best of the season by far. But it won't be easy on the nerves if you track ops every 6 hours. One of them will almost always look worse or go the wrong way or show the fail option. Full agreement is a short range game 

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4 minutes ago, Shad said:

Please Nobody mention the word that rhymes with Bread today.

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40 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

This seems like the best chance in years for a decent snow area wide. I would gladly take 3-6 and if it's more its a bonus. 

With the cherry being temps allowing it to actually stick around for a while.

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The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially contributes to de-amplification of the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it, further de-amplifying. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive.

EPS.thumb.png.35dd3cdaf00a16a613c0974d002c0fbd.png

1705471200-P07aLFQT0pk.png

My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially de-amplifies the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive.

EPS.thumb.png.35dd3cdaf00a16a613c0974d002c0fbd.png

My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope.

 

IMG_4568.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially contributes to de-amplification of the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it, further de-amplifying. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive.

EPS.thumb.png.35dd3cdaf00a16a613c0974d002c0fbd.png

1705471200-P07aLFQT0pk.png

My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope.

Still odd, because in that run, the TPV phases somewhat with the trailing piece, but in a previous 12z run yesterday they didn't phase as I pointed out - still same result. Either way, I think there's some error here. But I'm still worried that other guidance is missing that trailing piece or its strength. I just hope that Euro's bias in hanging too much energy in that trailing piece is at work.

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3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow its like night and day!!

why not to give up on the 20th.  Right now it looks a little too NS dominant and that's definitely an issue, but there is plenty of time for that to change and its a beautiful setup in general if we can just get a more amplified STJ wave to come along.  

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52 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Head scratching.. would’ve thought with other guidance it would trend slightly better. Going the opposite way here. 

Pretty sure I read an AFD posted here earlier that stated the Euro didn't have data ingested and that would resume with the 12z run today? 

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:
 

 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:


What lol? Is that true

"

The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic

runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore

of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and

the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the

ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for

the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could

help with the model diagnostics."

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

"

The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic

runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore

of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and

the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the

ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for

the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could

help with the model diagnostics."

This isn't part of the Euro itself. It's an ML model(s) that uses the Euro as an input to analyze and explain why the model sees what it does and 'learn' from it.

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

"

 

That reminded me of the "AI" version of the Euro, which you can find here: https://charts.ecmwf.int

I have no idea how accurate it is and all that, but it ran at 0Z and certainly looks better than the base Euro to my untrained eye. 

979190473_CleanShot2024-01-12at09_21_04.thumb.png.209a6e5d6cb9bddf7e91d3c223612bea.png

 

You can read more about it here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/

Edit: The screenshot cut off, but that's at 18Z on Tuesday. 

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14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself 

IMG_4231.thumb.png.b3f926dc558e44e4360b86dddbf31322.png

Yeah, I noticed the Canadian had it, as did previous Euro runs when they had the storm closer in. It's probably something else.

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