Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Tuesday, January 9 Rain and Wind Storm


Weather Will
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Closing early for this, except for perhaps the counties along the bay, is so dumb, but IF you are going to close, I totally agree that you have to do it the night before. Nothing changed between last night and this morning. I work from home so I am fortunate that it doesn't really impact me and I can easily get my kids from the bus, but many parents are not that fortunate and this is a huge headache for them. At least let them be able to plan ahead for said huge headache. 

I really wish I knew the clowns in charge of these decisions.

here you go, plenty of numbers you can call and people to yell at

https://www.hcpss.org/contact-us/

  • Like 3
  • Haha 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Will this be the largest surge event since Isabell?

If we get this height (5.5 feet above MLLW), yes. The next highest was October 2021 at 4.88 feet above MLLW. Isabel was 7.20 feet above MLLW. There were two other storms in the past 100 years to breach 4 feet - 1950's and 1930's

 

Annapolis Isabel: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8575512&units=standard&bdate=20030915&edate=20030923&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=h&action=

Annapolis October 2021: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8575512&units=standard&bdate=20211026&edate=20211104&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=h&action=

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

D1 Mod Risk of flooding expanded from WPC. Pretty impactful wording. Haven't seen this in awhile. :o 

Quote
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 AM EST Tue Jan 09 2024
 
Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 09 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 10 2024 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
WESTERN CAROLINAS...

...16Z Update...

For the most part, the forecast remains on track this morning as 
the leading edge of the rainfall pushes northeast across 
northeastern MD and central PA. The primary change with this 
update was to expand the Moderate Risk area along the Blue 
Ridge/Shenandoah Valley of western VA. 12Z HREF probabilities show 
a 50% chance of 5 inches of rain and a 25% chance of 8 inches of 
rain through 12Z Wednesday in this region. NOHRSC shows up to an 
inch of liquid equivalent in the form of recently fallen snow 
along the ridge tops, which should fully melt with the expected 
rainfall, which will only worsen resultant flooding in this area. 
Thus, portions of the central Blue Ridge corresponding with those 
highest HREF probabilities are considered to be in the higher end 
of the Moderate Risk category, so widespread flash flooding is 
likely across the area, especially where the heaviest rainfall 
occurs. The change was made in coordination with LWX/Sterling, VA 
forecast office. 

The Slight and Moderate Risk areas were expanded a bit across the 
western Carolinas and over to the TN side of the NC/TN border in 
the Great Smokies. Frequent issuance of Flash Flood Warnings has 
been occurring in this area over the past couple hours, so local 
upgrades to the risk areas were warranted as ongoing flooding in 
the area continues to worsen.

The last change of significance was a bump northward of the 
Marginal and Slight Risk areas along the NH and far southern ME 
coasts. Guidance shows a very impressive plume of moisture 
characterized by IVT values well over 1,000, and 850 mb temps 
getting as warm as +6 by 12Z in association with the moisture 
plume. The caveat in this area is that it's quite cold there now 
with temperatures in the teens to near 20. The warm-up, while 
drastic, will be brief, so think any resulting flooding will be 
isolated. However, because of how quickly temperatures will rise, 
still think flash flooding is possible. This change was 
coordinated with the GYX/Gray, ME forecast office.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

D1 Mod Risk of flooding expanded from WPC. Pretty impactful wording. Haven't seen this in awhile. :o 

 

Doesn't look like that is for our area, but that's definitely strong wording for those areas. Snow melt combined with very heavy rain, especially in mountainous areas, is worrisome.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

94ewbg.gif?1704817439339

I was referring to the changes from the previous update. I thought we were already under a Mod risk. The changes seemed like the bolded and focused on the areas in the mountains in western VA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm honestly shocked that Fairfax County hasn't made the call, given the other counties doing so. I guess they figure they didn't do it early enough, so they'll stick to their guns and not piss off the folks whose daily routines it would upset.

I'm pretty ambivalent about it, to be honest.

I was told when I dropped my son off this morning that schools would be closing early. Being a Gex Xer I was like for some rain and wind? lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Being an early millennial I do remember being sent home early like an hour early during HS (05-06) because of incoming severe weather in Spotsy so while a lot of folks are griping about the early dismissals, its not like its unprecedented. The running theme seems to be making sure the kids are given a window to arrive home safe.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

7be71a43ca6810780f47d850cc2bc1f5.jpg
Precip type aside… the sheer size of this storm and its widespread impacts from the gulf to the Midwest to New England is very impressive.


.

I was just looking at radar and noting how large this system is. Impressive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

My kid just texted that Fx Co schools canceling evening activities 

My wife and I were just talking about that. 5th grader has a strings concert this evening and we figured it might be cancelled. It's a little bit of a bummer since that was rescheduled from before Christmas when like 50% of the kids were sick.

44 and still raining in Burke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
REGION TODAY BETWEEN 500 PM AND 1000 PM EST...

Weather conditions will deteriorate as a strong frontal system
approaches this afternoon, then passes through the greater
Baltimore/Washington region this evening. This will result high
winds capable of downing trees and powerlines, tidal flooding, and
the potential for flooding of small streams and creeks. This
will create hazardous travel conditions late this afternoon
through late evening across the region.

Light-to-moderate rain will continue early this afternoon, then
increase in intensity late this afternoon, with a several hour
period of heavy, intense rainfall expected between 6 PM and 10 PM.
This heavy rainfall, coupled with already saturated soils from
recent rainfall, will cause flooding of small streams and creeks.
Do not attempt to drive across flooded roadways; additionally,
flooding at night increases the risk for motorists not being able
to quickly identify the water hazards due to decreased
visibilities by the heavy rain and darkness.

Easterly winds will increase in intensity as well this afternoon
across the region, with gusts to 50 MPH expected late this
afternoon through mid-evening. Locations closer to the Chesapeake
Bay will see higher wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. Strong winds will
increase the risk of falling trees and downed powerlines. Again,
the risk of poor outcomes resulting from high winds is increased
during nighttime. Winds will decrease after midnight tonight.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

The criteria for closing schools has changed drastically over the decades. My mom told me in the 1960's school would be open with a foot of fresh snow on the ground. When I was in school in the 1990's, it took about 6 inches to close school. Today a squirrel farts wrong and schools close.

As to the reason why, my guess is heightened liability issues. Its just easier to make it up at the end of the year than opening yourself up to lawsuits.

 

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... these school closings are getting ridiculous. As for BCPS... there is nothing new in the forecast... so why not just say you are closing 3 hours early the night before.  You are making it a headache for family's where both parents work.  The only reason why they did close schools, is because a 3 hour earlier dismissal  still counts as a full day. Parents depend on school officials too much.  You are the parent and you have the final say.  If you feel like it is too dangerous, then keep you kids home.  If you feel like it is too dangerous to walk or ride the bus... drive them yourself.  Parents all too often want someone else to make their decisions for their kids so they have someone to blame.  End rant

 

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Closing early for this, except for perhaps the counties along the bay, is so dumb, but IF you are going to close, I totally agree that you have to do it the night before. Nothing changed between last night and this morning. I work from home so I am fortunate that it doesn't really impact me and I can easily get my kids from the bus, but many parents are not that fortunate and this is a huge headache for them. At least let them be able to plan ahead for said huge headache. 

I really wish I knew the clowns in charge of these decisions.

Parents in Frederick Co. remember this image from Fall 2021. We are more than fine with a 3 hr. early dismissal up here. 

BUS.thumb.jpg.ea2add79d6ca071df253d4c3c3da270c.jpg

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...