Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[klw]

1 hour ago, Patrick-02540 said:

A persistent struggle against the realities of life.  Like Sisyphus. 

Sisyphus is of course best known for pushing a giant snowball up a slope for all eternity

 

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just meant that depiction seems to always verify low . Ray posts one similar but higher resolution which also typically is low Vs the regular Euro maps. Just curious 

You talking qpf?

[tavwtby]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty cold in 18z flash freeze is crazy for mass even gets down to ct this run 

sticking with my 4-8, despite what ALY and the clowns say, what say you? you do an update on the maps yet, I may have missed a few dozen pages here...

[WeatherX]

What else is new?

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


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[weatherwiz]

Can’t wait I I til tomorrow morning when we can put models away and switch gears to mesoanalysis and now casting. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Where is this CF suppose to be located during the meat of this first batch of precip tomm nite 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where is this CF suppose to be located during the meat of this first batch of precip tomm nite 

Probably SNH. Maybe up a few exits on 93? 
 

Sometimes they’re further south than modeled though. Something to watch. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WeatherX said:

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


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I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably SNH. Maybe up a few exits on 93? 
 

Sometimes they’re further south than modeled though. Something to watch. 

I think it sets up over like Windham.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump. 

I think New Haven gets 4 or 5" during the thump. Soundings look pretty good and should be able to wet bulb close to freezing along with some diabatic cooling from melting. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


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Yeah I mean even seeing snowflakes is a win at this point. Better than the mosquitoes flying around outside two weeks ago. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

sticking with my 4-8, despite what ALY and the clowns say, what say you? you do an update on the maps yet, I may have missed a few dozen pages here...

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

[WeatherX]

I feel like down there we might get the classic Merritt gradient on the thump. Coast could get mostly sloppy slush while those hills along the Merritt pull 6” of paste during the thump. 

Agreed. I’ll get like 2” and then drive 3 miles north and see 6” like you said. It’s how we roll down here!


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[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think New Haven gets 4 or 5" during the thump. Soundings look pretty good and should be able to wet bulb close to freezing along with some diabatic cooling from melting. 

Yeah i was thinking more BDR might struggle. HVN has some sneaky latitude compared to further SW. 

But even for BDR it’s admittedly close. But given the marginal BL, could still be a big elevation gradient there  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it sets up over like Windham.

Is it like 32 one side / 27 the other?

haven’t peaked at all 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Agreed. I’ll get like 2” and then drive 3 miles north and see 6” like you said. It’s how we roll down here!


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If you’re getting big omega, you might do fine anyway. Get those massive aggregates as 32-33F that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. At least it’s going to be fun to track. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is it like 32 one side / 27 the other?

haven’t peaked at all 

The initial CF isn’t that strong. But it becomes ridiculous by Sunday midday. Here’s 1pm on Sunday on 18z euro..:this is where the potential big bust could happen…you get 40-50 knots of inflow slamming into that CF and someone could pound like crazy for 2-4 hours  

 

[WeatherX]

If you’re getting big omega, you might do fine anyway. Get those massive aggregates as 32-33F that drop 4-6” in 6 hours. At least it’s going to be fun to track. 

I’m pumped. It’s good to be in that target zone for the big omega and the week plus of tracking will pay off.


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[kazimirkai]

55 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There are different nuances that affect all three of those valleys in different ways though.  Topography width of the valley and height of surrounding hills is very different with all three of those examples.

In general Valley’s can face issues that hilltowns avoid but not always a given.

There are SWFE’s where the upper CTRV can get more snow than Dave in the N Orh hills. 
edit:  Obviously ULL placement plays a big part.

Does the orientation of the valleys matter?  I figured the biggest reduction in snowfall amounts on the Hudson and Connecticut had to do with down-sloping off of the eastern-side ridges. I'm in the roughly east-west oriented Rondout River Valley and models haven't seemed to pick up much of a decreased snowfall outside of simple lower elevation.

[CT Rain]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i was thinking more BDR might struggle. HVN has some sneaky latitude compared to further SW. 

But even for BDR it’s admittedly close. But given the marginal BL, could still be a big elevation gradient there  

Yeah BDR is just an especially bad snow pit lol 

Agreed about lower Fairfield County. 

[moneypitmike]

Barring anything dramatic, I’m feeling good for here on all models.  

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah BDR is just an especially bad snow pit lol 

Agreed about lower Fairfield County. 

Bridgeport is just bad period  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

The WAA thump is all but guaranteed at this point. That’ll provide you with several hours of fun.


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Yes, it’s our bread and butter with these systems. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I may be in the running for max 

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Barring anything dramatic, I’m feeling good for here on all models.  

We've kind of been in the thump zone all week. That's why I gassed up the snowblower today.

 

 

[WeatherX]

Yes, it’s our bread and butter with these systems. 

Legit airmass in place. We fight for every snowflake down here before it ends.


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[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I may be in the running for max 

Elevation might help a bit with ratios. So it will be close

Scooter better be ready for pictures of my front steps and dog

[tavwtby]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Keeping our initial bc of what should be a great thump for 4-6 hours .. just a few tweaks on the coast to account for the warmer trends. Not buying on too much from the trailer just yet. 

I'll take! you should be good down there for a good 5/6 I think too

[weatherwiz]

18z GFS bufkit for BDL. That would probably briefly yield 2.5''/hr rates. It kind of sucks the window for the most intense lift is so short.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

This is a totally different system and set up but reminds me of Nov 2018 when he had 7.5” in like 3 hours then freezing drizzle from a SWFE , great positive bust and traffic was a nightmare.