Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[HVSnowLover]

The NAM/HRRR actually look decent down to Northern NYC but I'm sure the RGEM will slam any hopes.

[DenvilleCyclone]

In Denville, NJ, Morris County, I’m right on the 4-8,3-6 line for sure. Once you head east down the hill route 80 towards Parsippany there will be a sharper cutoff. Smell the rain for good snow.

[EastonSN+]

Nam 3 k

[EastonSN+]

Regular formula NAM

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, DenvilleCyclone said:

In Denville, NJ, Morris County, I’m right on the 4-8,3-6 line for sure. Once you head east down the hill route 80 towards Parsippany there will be a sharper cutoff. Smell the rain for good snow.

Heading westbound on 80 I've seen some very sharp increases in snow depth and deteriorating road conditions once to exit 35 as you start to gain elevation.  Works in reverse if you are heading eastbound.

[winterwx21]

On the 0z runs the HRRR and RGEM are too warm for northern Middlesex County, but the NAM models say we get some snow. I go into tomorrow expecting little to nothing, but hoping maybe we can squeeze out a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Very close call for this area. The central part of Middlesex County looks like all rain while just slightly to the north and west looks like several inches of snow. Right on the borderline here. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

On the 0z runs the HRRR and RGEM are too warm for northern Middlesex County, but the NAM models say we get some snow. I go into tomorrow expecting little to nothing, but hoping maybe we can squeeze out a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Very close call for this area. The central part of Middlesex County looks like all rain while just slightly to the north and west looks like several inches of snow. Right on the borderline here. 

The nam is on its own and the others will need to be 2 to 3 degrees too warm if we're going to see more than 1 to 2"

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam is on its own and the others will need to be 2 to 3 degrees too warm if we're going to see more than 1 to 2"

Yep. A coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces is my call, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see no accumulation at all. 

[Picard]

MANDA and I are in an area where sometimes a five minute drive can mean a difference of several inches.  I'm at 800' here.  I believe parts of Sparta/Jefferson are 1300'+  I've already seen twice since living here zilch at our house while the top of Sparta Mountain has plowable snow.

I'm not thinking that scenario plays out this time.  But I can easily see the top of the mountain beating me by 3" (say 5" vs 8").

[Snowlover11]

lol

 

[cleetussnow]

I get jacked?

 

nah.  I get jack shit

[Will - Rutgers]

tuesday night is the apocalypse which should be pretty cool

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

tuesday night is the apocalypse which should be pretty cool

If CMC is right then not good 

[mannynyc]

Something to watch (this is 8PM tomorrow night). 

[Nibor]

A CCB is going to develop somewhere, it’s been showing up on pretty much every global or meso model. It’s just a matter of where. If the storm tracks far enough south someone could end up with some back end snow after changing over or dry-slotting. 

Obligatory, “nEVer ReLy oN BaCkEnD SnoWs”

[Tatamy]

On a different note for those of you that are interested in subscribing to Pivotal (the source of most of the model runs on these boards) they are having a flash sale and are offering the Hobbyist subscription at $75.99 for the year.  Use code HAPPY2024 at checkout.  The normal rate is $99.99 per year.

[North and West]

MANDA and I are in an area where sometimes a five minute drive can mean a difference of several inches.  I'm at 800' here.  I believe parts of Sparta/Jefferson are 1300'+  I've already seen twice since living here zilch at our house while the top of Sparta Mountain has plowable snow.
I'm not thinking that scenario plays out this time.  But I can easily see the top of the mountain beating me by 3" (say 5" vs 8").

.

[wdrag]

I myself will continue commenting on this event in the original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized.  Others may post here but I will post in the original thread with only a new obs thread for that storm issued at 7AM this coming Tuesday when we've exhausted model discussion. 

[Snowlover11]

well the only good news here is that the precip should come in like a wall, so we should go from nothing to a moderate/heavy precip rate fairly fast.  thats when you hope we can overachieve for boarderline areas.

[wdrag]

Just a note: This thread will serve as the obs thread for this afternoon-Sunday obs and also continue comments on the Tuesday-Wednesday event.  A new OBS thread for Tuesday-Wednesday will issue 7A Tuesday.

fwiw--- I think NYC-LI is going to see some wet sloppy slushy snow acc on cars/grass 4P-10P and whether it is observed at CP I'm not sure but I expect 1/4-2" because of bursts of moderate snowfall 1/2MI vsby.  That despite temps above freezing, which I think will have to cool to 33 in snow after sunset.  Too much modeling is showing snow NYC...but temps will determine whether we can measure there. Am noting dewpoints not very far from freezing through this entire event for NYC north.  So--I may be very wrong but it's not worth the risk of a nil call being wrong for travelers.

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Just a note: This thread will serve as the obs thread for this afternoon-Sunday obs and also continue comments on the Tuesday-Wednesday event.  A new OBS thread for Tuesday-Wednesday will issue 7A Tuesday.

fwiw--- I think NYC-LI is going to see some wet sloppy slushy snow acc on cars/grass 4P-10P and whether it is observed at CP I'm not sure but I expect 1/4-2" because of bursts of moderate snowfall 1/2MI vsby.  That despite temps above freezing, which I think will have to cool to 33 in snow after sunset.  Too much modeling is showing snow NYC...but temps will determine whether we can measure there. Am noting dewpoints not very far from freezing through this entire event for NYC north.  So--I may be very wrong but it's not worth the risk of a nil call being wrong for travelers.

I myself will continue commenting on this event in this original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized.  

[wdrag]

An announcement for those who use banding pages provided by the grace of FSU-Bob Hart. Now fixed.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

well the only good news here is that the precip should come in like a wall, so we should go from nothing to a moderate/heavy precip rate fairly fast.  thats when you hope we can overachieve for boarderline areas.

I could actually see a positive bust for the fringe zones. 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

That is my thought as well. Get to 2 full  years of no snow, then we can get some snow.

 

That's what I was thinking of too-- and we need 30 days or so to get there (730 day snowless streak.)

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Just a note: This thread will serve as the obs thread for this afternoon-Sunday obs and also continue comments on the Tuesday-Wednesday event.  A new OBS thread for Tuesday-Wednesday will issue 7A Tuesday.

fwiw--- I think NYC-LI is going to see some wet sloppy slushy snow acc on cars/grass 4P-10P and whether it is observed at CP I'm not sure but I expect 1/4-2" because of bursts of moderate snowfall 1/2MI vsby.  That despite temps above freezing, which I think will have to cool to 33 in snow after sunset.  Too much modeling is showing snow NYC...but temps will determine whether we can measure there. Am noting dewpoints not very far from freezing through this entire event for NYC north.  So--I may be very wrong but it's not worth the risk of a nil call being wrong for travelers.

Hopefully we can keep it under 1.0" to preserve the record.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, KeithB said:

I have storm chased before....but personally, I would wait until an 18+ type storm is gonna hit the chase area. I've done Monticello, Albany, North Conway NH, and western Mass. But I recommend a hotel and not your car

24 inches for me, that would definitely make it worth it, especially if it's not snowing here lol.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we can keep it under 1.0" to preserve the record.

If the new 6z op Euro is correct that’s what it going to happen, it has warm nose mixing issues all the way up into Rockland/Bergen counties. It cut snow totals even more than 0z

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we can keep it under 1.0" to preserve the record.

NYC will probably preserve the record... 1/4-2" doesn't mean NYC will get 2".  I definitely think some sort of measurable slop has to occur there but whether the observers catch it as intended in the snow measuring guidance... within their primary shift duties?  Have no clue. 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 6z op Euro is correct that’s what it going to happen, it has warm nose mixing issues all the way up into Rockland/Bergen counties. It cut snow totals even more than 0z

Too close to sure for me. 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Too close to sure for me. 

Yea. The 6z Euro soundings show midlevel issues until you get into Orange and Passaic counties. Is it correct? Who knows but it’s been consistent in showing this since last night. It basically has nothing at all along and south of 287. It cut back totals even more than 0z in Rockland and Bergen