ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This event is pretty close to being something big, but the two piece of PV just aren't quite separated enough...so it gets crunched just south. Gonna be a tease in the end....might be some light snow amounts, especially for southern areas, but unlikely anyone gets warning snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very much like today . Burst overnight Thursday and then light to moderate most of Friday . Sets up a frigid weekend before the rainy torch next week wipes it all out again God I hope not-I don't care about the torch but we are saturated cannot take another 2 inch rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS actually has a snow/ice threat for next Wednesday...sneaky high moves in and prevents everything from torching. That idea has been showing up off and on different guidance actually, so it bears watching. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Man…you can’t take a joke, unless you’re the guy doing it I guess. When your the guy goofing around, I guess it’s all good? And nobody is seeing what that post stated. So there’s that. Haha well this is one case where I do hope I eat crow. I wish it was just the NYC Metro getting a ratter right now. I yearn for winters that last more than 14-21 days lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Whatever was left of that Friday threat is now gone even on the Canadian. See ya 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has a snow/ice threat for next Wednesday...sneaky high moves in and prevents everything from torching. That idea has been showing up off and on different guidance actually, so it bears watching. We have to catch a break like that, at some point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Whatever was left of that Friday threat is now gone even on the Canadian. See ya I gave that one up yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have to catch a break like that, at some point. Yeah you'd think....we get those types of systems on a semi-regular basis. GGEM trying to do it too, but it's a little warmer....more of a ZR interior threat (snow for NNE though) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Whatever was left of that Friday threat is now gone even on the Canadian. See ya Still there, even stronger this run just about 50 miles SE of 00z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Haha well this is one case where I do hope I eat crow. I wish it was just the NYC Metro getting a ratter right now. I yearn for winters that last more than 14-21 days lately. I’m sorry if it came across rude…I was really just joshing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, George001 said: Even in March 2018, which was an amazing stretch of winter (I don’t remember seeing bare ground until like the 1st week of April), but even during that stretch we rolled snake eyes a couple of times in my area. The last nor’easter was shunted just south, the 1st one hugged the coast and it rained. However, it didn’t matter because the favorable pattern lasted for a month, and we got so many dice rolls that we didn’t need all of them to hit for a great month. Now 2015… that was the perfect combination of 99.9th percentile luck and a 10 week window of opportunity (great pattern in the aggregate). March 2018 had 4 huge storms, 1-2, 7-8, 13-14 and 21-22. I can't recall another month with that many biggies. We whiffed on 1 and 4, totaled 3 feet from 2 and 3. Dec-Jan are +5 so far, but I'd guess by month's end, Jan will be in the +2-3 range, and that's plenty cold up here for snow, if things break right. And BN temps don't always mean a lot of snow - 2004, 2013 and 2014 were all BN and they're the 3 least snowy of 25 Januarys here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 42 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Yep, in Reggie we trust 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: God I hope not-I don't care about the torch but we are saturated cannot take another 2 inch rainstorm I'd be wary, in fact I am very wary about any 2-inch rain events... Not impressed with Thursday / Friday setup, but will give it another day... more interested in next week... we are in somewhat of a pattern change relative to past storm tracks (cutters) and available cold air masses, so I would continue to watch next week closely... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Whatever was left of that Friday threat is now gone even on the Canadian. See ya Do you even think about or read what you post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Do you even think about or read what you post? No amount of hopes and prayers are going to bring this back. Enjoy the dry day 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Time for our uncle to make a fool of himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I posted this in the NYC Metro, but since I am on the border with New England, I figured this also applies. Looking ahead at what if left of winter I think my prediction of an average snowfall season with warmer than average temperatures will bust on the snowfall. The warmer than average temperature I went +1 to +2 for winter overall, and I think that will also bust low. It really does look like winter will begin to unravel next week with a sea of warmth that likely takes us to mid-February. At that point the time is fully ticking for the southern northeast ski season. Most resorts, even to the north, have not sniffed being 100% open this year. I think the northern mountains will fair okay in February, but I think from I90 south it will be a tough go. That said it is completely insane to see how the media spins winter these days. Many are being gaslit into believing this is a “cold” winter. The media has been covering how frigid this winter has been, when it has been a week of cold for the vast majority of America. Yes, some record cold for sure, but winter has not been “cold”. The northern ski resorts not “sniffing” 100 percent open is factually incorrect. Jay is currently 100 percent open minus a park they are blowing and building on a few trails. They have been for most of the last week. They were 90-95 percent open in early December before the monsoons came.Stowe is over 100 trails; killington 135 and even okemo over 100. Terrain will only expand over the next 10-14, with the first chance of wet/warmth a week away.Dec 20th-jan 5th or so was pretty close to as bad as it gets, but the rebound has been swift and the snowstake is above average currently and only trailing 2018 recently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 But the GGEM metrics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has a snow/ice threat for next Wednesday...sneaky high moves in and prevents everything from torching. That idea has been showing up off and on different guidance actually, so it bears watching. Thanks Will. How you get weenies for that just shows the intelligence of some here... unreal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has a snow/ice threat for next Wednesday...sneaky high moves in and prevents everything from torching. That idea has been showing up off and on different guidance actually, so it bears watching. qg omega just smashed his keyboard 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No amount of hopes and prayers are going to bring this back. Enjoy the dry day It’s going to snow most of Friday . Stick to fixing the toilets 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s going to snow most of Friday . Stick to fixing the toilets What? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The darn NavGEM has a bigger storm than the Euro, much as it did a few days ago for this....I have to think maybe the fast flow is causing the Euro to have more issues than it typically does in these patterns....ordinarily -NAO/west ridge and east trof/phasing type east coast system in an El Nino year it has historically beaten the CMC/GFS but the crazy Pac flow probably is what is partially responsible for its performance today from 72-96 out and likely again Friday unless its gonna score a W but its an outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The darn NavGEM has a bigger storm than the Euro, much as it did a few days ago for this....I have to think maybe the fast flow is causing the Euro to have more issues than it typically does in these patterns....ordinarily -NAO/west ridge and east trof/phasing type east coast system in an El Nino year it has historically beaten the CMC/GFS but the crazy Pac flow probably is what is partially responsible for its performance today from 72-96 out and likely again Friday unless its gonna score a W but its an outlier now. George's ears just perked up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m sorry if it came across rude…I was really just joshing. Naw you are good. I honestly do hope I eat crow. I'm still bitter over ice block skiing yesterday at Catamount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro gives some light snows Thursday night / Friday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro gives some light snows Thursday night / Friday . Maybe an inch or two for S CT. Improvement over 00z, but still not enough to entertain anything significant. Ceiling for this is probably an advisory event at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe an inch or two for S CT. Improvement over 00z, but still not enough to entertain anything significant. Ceiling for this is probably an advisory event at this point. That’s all that most have been expecting with this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s all that most have been expecting with this one. Well, I will say that even the storm today which trended away late last week and over the weekend came back Sunday into Monday to give us advisory snow. So, being that it's Tuesday and this next storm is Thursday into Friday, things could trend a little bit more. Is the most we would see in Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I'm not Will, but this is a different look. Apples to oranges. You have a confluence zone to the north of us vs today which is a s/w well west and nothing really to stop this from coming NW. It could maybe drop advisory snow, but seems like a low ceiling IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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