the_other_guy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro took away our warmth on Friday… Ugh you didnt fall for that 65F did you? The clown map of temperatures 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS definitely keeps the east coast closer to normal for the first week of February today. It also had a artic shot Monday into Tuesday of next week It also has a clipper coming through next Friday. Maybe another storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: It also has a clipper coming through next Friday. Maybe another storm. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good luck I see you don't like any of these storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good luck Hopefully after 2/15 we get something to produce before Winter ends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: How do you still remember this storm lol. I don't remember much about it at all except that there was some minor snow event around Valentines Day and the pictures out of Central Park looked pretty good. I don't remember snowfall amounts or what time it occurred (day or night-- although I think it was at night.) I remember it. Heavy wet snow. A few inches. Didn't last long. But it was snow. Think it was a Saturday? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully after 2/15 we get something to produce before Winter ends. Weeklies do look great from Mid February to mid March . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies do look great from Mid February to mid March . I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 anybody with an iPhone having an issue posting photos here? I always do that screenshot thing and it’s never been an issue up until about a week ago and I can’t get the file small enough to upload anymore. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just a few questions about MJO ... (a) is it always progressive, I see it stalls out occasionally but does it ever retrogress significantly? (b) if it goes all around the earth's tropical zone, what is its average period? (c) what is the variability of said period? (looked it up, says 30-60d, no average given) (d) does it track enhanced convection or is it more complicated than that? In my research I am tracking all sorts of weak progressive and retrograde mid-latitude signals of various periods; they are only significant at a very low level in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 F deg, not really all that useful for forecasting but interesting nonetheless. So I am trying to figure out what (if any) research signals would correspond to MJO. Off topic but in 1967, today's high 68, low 54 at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The shot at 60 on Friday now looks closer to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact Many don't realize this, but 2 weeks of cold is plenty. I'm over March "cold" and barely accumulating snow, but the last two weeks of February being more hospitable to snowfall is plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 38 minutes ago, lee59 said: The shot at 60 on Friday now looks closer to 50. Tomorrow will be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Many don't realize this, but 2 weeks of cold is plenty. I'm over March "cold" and barely accumulating snow, but the last two weeks of February being more hospitable to snowfall is plenty. I think the biggest issue around here and on this board is the suspension of disbelief at this time of year that we live in a temperate climate that’s accentuated by living either right next to or in close proximity to the ocean. The ocean giveth and taketh away.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 fogwalking #blessed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Many don't realize this, but 2 weeks of cold is plenty. I'm over March "cold" and barely accumulating snow, but the last two weeks of February being more hospitable to snowfall is plenty. That’s right! you had the snowy week in January you get another one in February and before you know it you cobble together a winter with some memories. What else do you want? A lot of these guys on here are chasing a number for a record book and they don’t care if it melts the next day. I loved this past week! I don’t remember the last time we had snow on the ground for two weeks in January and I’m pretty close to that. Who cares if it was only about 5 or 6 inches of snow between three different events? I think my kids and I have been sledding five or so times already. I’m hoping for more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Tomorrow will be another rainy, foggy, and mild day. The temperature will top out in the lower 50s across much of the New York City area. The frontal boundary will then sag southward bringing slightly cooler air to the region to end the week. The mercury will likely hold in the upper 40s and perhaps reach 50° in New York City and Newark on Friday. Farther south, Philadelphia could see the temperature approach 60° while Washington, DC basks in temperatures in the upper 60s. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. Another storm will bring additional rain to the region. The rain could change to or end as a period of snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely north and west of New York City and across central New England. Some of the guidance brings accumulating snow into New York City, so the situation will have to be monitored. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was -4.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.599 today. That's the highest figure this winter. In addition, the EPO has now gone positive. On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.710 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.816 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.4° (2.7° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I know it's just rain but the models are all over the place the next couple days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Tomorrow will be another rainy, foggy, and mild day. The temperature will top out in the lower 50s across much of the New York City area. The frontal boundary will then sag southward bringing slightly cooler air to the region to end the week. The mercury will likely hold in the upper 40s and perhaps reach 50° in New York City and Newark on Friday. Farther south, Philadelphia could see the temperature approach 60° while Washington, DC basks in temperatures in the upper 60s. This warm period will assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. Another storm will bring additional rain to the region. The rain could change to or end as a period of snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely north and west of New York City and across central New England. Some of the guidance brings accumulating snow into New York City, so the situation will have to be monitored. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was -4.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.599 today. That's the highest figure this winter. In addition, the EPO has now gone positive. On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.710 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.816 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.4° (2.7° above normal). lol it’s like a broken record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I feel like I should be under a dense fog advisory. Very surprised that I’m not. Well under a quarter of a mile here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 56 minutes ago, Ji said: lol it’s like a broken record Fortunately, change is on the horizon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I feel like I should be under a dense fog advisory. Very surprised that I’m not. Well under a quarter of a mile here We have one here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 February thread started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 hours ago, the_other_guy said: That’s right! you had the snowy week in January you get another one in February and before you know it you cobble together a winter with some memories. What else do you want? A lot of these guys on here are chasing a number for a record book and they don’t care if it melts the next day. I loved this past week! I don’t remember the last time we had snow on the ground for two weeks in January and I’m pretty close to that. Who cares if it was only about 5 or 6 inches of snow between three different events? I think my kids and I have been sledding five or so times already. I’m hoping for more. Yes, it's not the numbers that count, it's the memories that count! I still remember January 2009 for all the days of snowcover even though it didn't snow a lot, but it was cold that month and what snow we had stayed on the ground for a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Fortunately, change is on the horizon. But why has our climate become like Ireland's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 46/46 cloudy, drizzle, fog and grey. Most of the snow is gone here. Cloudy and warm low 50s today. A bit cooler tomorrow with winds going around NE/NE and clearing by the PM. Sat is partly cloudy and low 50s. Rain perhaps some mixing at a time Sun into Mon. Storm exitsand pulls trough and cold into the Northeast while ridge builds over the GL. Reinforcing stripe of cold Feb 3- Feb 4 before moderating back and overall warmer. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Records: Highs: EWR: 59 (2010) NYC: 60 (1967) LGA: 57 (1967) Lows: EWR: -1 (1935) NYC: 2 (1945) LGA: 2 (1945) Historical: 1821 - The Hudson River was frozen solid during the midst of the coldest winter in forty-one years. Thousands of persons crossed the ice from New York City to New Jersey, and refreshment taverns were set up in the middle of the river to warm pedestrians. (David Ludlum) 1837 - At 7 PM a display of the Northern Lights danced above Burlington, VT. Its light was equal to the full moon. Snow and other objects reflecting the light were deeply tinged with a blood red hue. Blue, yellow and white streamers were also noted. (The Weather Channel) 1937: Las Vegas, Nevada dropped to 8 degrees above zero, setting a record low for the city. 1949: Las Vegas, Nevada, recorded 4.7 inches of snow. This brought the monthly snowfall total to 16.7 inches which still ranks as their snowiest month on record. 1965 - Alta, UT, was in the midst of a storm that left the town buried under 105 inches of snow establishing a record for the state. (David Ludlum) 1987 - The second major storm in three days hit the Eastern Seaboard producing up to 15 inches of snow in Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Up to 30 inches of snow covered the ground in Virginia following the two storms. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - High winds created blizzard conditions in the mountains of Colorado. Winds gusted to 109 mph at Echo Lake, and a wind gust to 193 mph was reported atop Mount Evans. A "nor'easter" moving up the Atlantic Coast spread heavy snow from the Carolinas to New England, with as much as 16 inches reported in the Poconos of eastern Pennsylvania. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Bitter cold air, coming down from Alaska, settled over the Northern Rockies. Wilson WY reported a morning low of 48 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. One thunderstorm in north central Texas spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Troy. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Low pressure developed explosively over east central Missouri and moved into Lower Michigan producing high winds and heavy snow across parts of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin. Wind gusts to 60 mph and up to a foot of snow created near blizzard conditions in southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind gusts in Indiana reached 76 mph at Wabash. Thunderstorms associated with the storm produced wind gusts to 54 mph at Fort Madison IA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2000 - Heavy snow fell from the Carolinas to New England, with up to 20 inches of snow and five deaths reported. (NCDC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The 1821 Hudson River freeze https://ephemeralnewyork.wordpress.com/tag/hudson-river-frozen/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 60 and drizzling here. I'm out in shorts and a t-shirt today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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