Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: Just watched DT’s breakdown for this weekend and the next few weeks. He is not impressed by this weekends storm, too warm. Perhaps a pattern change by mid February to colder weather but it’s basically December all over again for now. . No cold air no snow...not sure why that's lost on some people. sure there's always the storm where the cold comes in just in time but very rare.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Ukie lolHey ant, definitely could be NYCs largest event of the year if things break right. Looks like a sloppy event with borderline temps. Cmc has been near the top of verification skills lately so don’t doubt it too much. PS, Like the Philly sub here, didn’t most NYC posters migrate to another forum? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: Just watched DT’s breakdown for this weekend and the next few weeks. He is not impressed by this weekends storm, too warm. Perhaps a pattern change by mid February to colder weather but it’s basically December all over again for now. . Meh he was excited for late December and then again early Feb. Always changing his mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Meh he was excited for late December and then again early Feb. Always changing his mind Ended up delayed by 2-3 weeks in retrospect. If that happens for the Mid Feb time frame we are about cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey ant, definitely could be NYCs largest event of the year if things break right. Looks like a sloppy event with borderline temps. Cmc has been near the top of verification skills lately so don’t doubt it too much. PS, Like the Philly sub here, didn’t most NYC posters migrate to another forum? . Yes they prefer a place where every model run looks like the next blizzard of 96 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes they prefer a place where every model run looks like the next blizzard of 96 Meanwhile in reality… 4.6 inches in the last two winters 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 12z euro coming in with even lower heughts out ahead of the low… . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes they prefer a place where every model run looks like the next blizzard of 96 to be fair, there's been a shocking lack of interest in a potential snow event for the metro (however little it may be), which is pretty disheartening there's literally a dude from Philly doing PBP lmao 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z euro coming in with even lower heughts out ahead of the low… . it's definitely more consolidated. kinda looks like the CMC... GFS is on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z euro coming in with even lower heughts out ahead of the low… . WOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Big snowstorm for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z euro coming in with even lower heughts out ahead of the low… . Huge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to be fair, there's been a shocking lack of interest in a potential snow event for the metro (however little it may be), which is pretty disheartening there's literally a dude from Philly doing PBP lmao Can't blame them when 3 decent threats went to crap for the immediate metro area. Some of it is bad luck but until the models have something inside 48 hours it's hard to get too interested 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge Euro using Ai ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 If you look at the ensemble members there have been members that had this solution. It’s definitely on the table.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Just now, NEG NAO said: Euro using Ai ? Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Just now, Heisy said: If you look at the ensemble members there have been members that had this solution. It’s definitely on the table. . Ukie was similiar but even further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Ended up delayed by 2-3 weeks in retrospect. If that happens for the Mid Feb time frame we are about cooked.Sun angle!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Can't blame them when 3 decent threats went to crap for the immediate metro area. Some of it is bad luck but until the models have something inside 48 hours it's hard to get too interested Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking… @bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Hopefully we can get lucky with the positive PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking… @bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. We never had a snow event when everything was positive ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 if the ECMWF is correct and you have a strengthening closed low S of LI and cold air rushing in due to a partial phase, it'll snow here just need to see if it has the right idea 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking… @bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. Verbatim it's heavy rain to snow at night so at least we'd have that going for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Just now, MJO812 said: We never had a snow event when everything was positive ? we have had snow events in unfavorable overall patterns and we have had no snowstorms in the most favorable patterns - this event is all about timing and if that HP in Canada can get in place before the storm approach's 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: if the ECMWF is correct and you have a strengthening closed low S of LI and cold air rushing in due to a partial phase, it'll snow here just need to see if it has the right idea Look at that ridge out west. That also has been trending stronger which is possibly slowing down the southern stream . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 Just now, NEG NAO said: we have had snow events in unfavorable overall patterns and we have had no snowstorms in the most favorable patterns - this event is all about timing and if that HP in Canada can get in place before the storm approach's Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking… @bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. I definitely agree that this is unlikely to work out for our area, but it is late January. If there's a time of year we're most likely to get lucky with a thread the needle event in a bad pattern, this is it. Both Euro and CMC have us changing over to heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning, so it's something to watch. I think it's only a slight chance but it's good to have something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2024 Author Share Posted January 24, 2024 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: No but this is a weather forum where we post all weather. I don't see the subforum talking about the storm. Heck even the Mid Atlantic subforum is posting about it The thread was started at 930 AM and comments about Sunday should go into that thread. That’s what it’s for. Thanks. Am on the road 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 The compressed heights from the N/S slows down the main trough forces slower development. Cmc and icon were in general agree. This could also be the euro going crazy with the ccb aspect, but certainly the trend we want to see . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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