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12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo

Yeah, I've noticed that its not exactly frigid. We're relying on timing and rates if anyone wants to actually measure something, especially outside our favored spots. I'd be down to see 2-3 hours of moderate snow with a slushy coating on the grass regardless though. Been a long time. 

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The 18z NAM really amps the system over Virginia.

TOO MUCH??

I can believe 6 inches along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. I cannot believe 4 inches at Richmond with surface temps. of 34 - 36 degrees!!

This is likely to be an elevation event for western locations.

image.thumb.png.f663ac22fb3f1638ac3631a028ef596e.png

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5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo

Arctic is not required to get a quick burst of snow with this system. When systems like this work out its usually snowing on the tail end with 33-34 temps 

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40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in. Also doesn't hurt that it flips to snow faster on the 3k

1702274400-4LMZogTERiA.png

Not saying this is a credible threat, but in order for this to pan out, yes we’d need that secondary LP to develop while the h5 trough axis lags behind fropa

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29 minutes ago, stormy said:

The 18z NAM really amps the system over Virginia.

TOO MUCH??

I can believe 6 inches along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. I cannot believe 4 inches at Richmond with surface temps. of 34 - 36 degrees!!

This is likely to be an elevation event for western locations.

image.thumb.png.f663ac22fb3f1638ac3631a028ef596e.png

Well that's a December logbook buster if I ever saw one :lol:

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12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m happy to see this juice up like our recent systems of late.  Nino flexing and I think a good sign of what’s to come this winter in our peak climo.

image.thumb.png.4f8fa5dc40c900bbb30e893ae0e82321.png

Bingo.

This is good news and is indicative of Nino feeding moisture into southern energy. We’re going to win with that kind of juice at some point.

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54 minutes ago, stormy said:

The best conclusion for the Sunday night/ Monday potential is yes, it might happen but is not likely.

Most elements would have to fall into place perfectly.

12-16 & 17 would be more likely.

I think we will see some snow, question is how much. Just flakes or any accumulation 

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


fa59aa924ecd1d85ca982152b6e01d7e.jpg

On mobile, so apologies if quality is lower.

Euro has been consistent for a few days now. 

I take it as the euro is saying there's a Good chance of snow falling from the sky.

Considering temps and ground conditions accumulations are unlikely unless you have 1000 ft in elevation. 

At night helps though.

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10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Euro has been consistent for a few days now. 

I take it as the euro is saying there's a Good chance of snow falling from the sky.

Considering temps and ground conditions accumulations are unlikely unless you have 1000 ft in elevation. 

At night helps though.

surprisingly, euro has .5"-1" of snow depth in NW areas.

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  • nj2va changed the title to 12/10-11 Disco / Obs - Rain/Snow/Wind Event
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