NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo Yeah, I've noticed that its not exactly frigid. We're relying on timing and rates if anyone wants to actually measure something, especially outside our favored spots. I'd be down to see 2-3 hours of moderate snow with a slushy coating on the grass regardless though. Been a long time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 The 18z NAM really amps the system over Virginia. TOO MUCH?? I can believe 6 inches along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. I cannot believe 4 inches at Richmond with surface temps. of 34 - 36 degrees!! This is likely to be an elevation event for western locations. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo Arctic is not required to get a quick burst of snow with this system. When systems like this work out its usually snowing on the tail end with 33-34 temps 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That 3k is the best look I’ve seen for this. This is the composite sim and sounding as the rain/snow line is hitting 95. Not bad. 9 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: This is the composite sim and sounding as the rain/snow line is hitting 95. Not bad. Approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in. Also doesn't hurt that it flips to snow faster on the 3k Not saying this is a credible threat, but in order for this to pan out, yes we’d need that secondary LP to develop while the h5 trough axis lags behind fropa 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, stormy said: The 18z NAM really amps the system over Virginia. TOO MUCH?? I can believe 6 inches along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. I cannot believe 4 inches at Richmond with surface temps. of 34 - 36 degrees!! This is likely to be an elevation event for western locations. Well that's a December logbook buster if I ever saw one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 GFS isn't joining the NAM party. We'll try again at 0z! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 I’m happy to see this juice up like our recent systems of late. Nino flexing and I think a good sign of what’s to come this winter in our peak climo. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS isn't joining the NAM party. We'll try again at 0z! The GFS is actually cold enough aloft but the surface temps and dew points are too warm. That's why it is still signaling rain during this panel time. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m happy to see this juice up like our recent systems of late. Nino flexing and I think a good sign of what’s to come this winter in our peak climo. Bingo. This is good news and is indicative of Nino feeding moisture into southern energy. We’re going to win with that kind of juice at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: That 3k is the best look I’ve seen for this. But the Aleutian low 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 The RGEM finally has a little snow out this way at 18Z as well. It had shown no snow at all up until this run. Nice to see something trending better instead of the other way for once. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Euro and Nam old EE rule let’s go 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: That 3k is the best look I’ve seen for this. That was about to be a beat down here. Already 2” otg with quite a bit of precip left according to sim radar. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, rjvanals said: Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo I’ll let Pittsburgh know 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 The best conclusion for the Sunday night/ Monday potential is yes, it might happen but is not likely. Most elements would have to fall into place perfectly. 12-16 & 17 would be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 54 minutes ago, stormy said: The best conclusion for the Sunday night/ Monday potential is yes, it might happen but is not likely. Most elements would have to fall into place perfectly. 12-16 & 17 would be more likely. I think we will see some snow, question is how much. Just flakes or any accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 18z EURO seemed to hold. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, rjvanals said: Big red flag for me is there’s no real arctic air behind the system. When it’s supposed to have flipped over in the metro it’s 34f in Pittsburgh. That’s not gonna do it imo Look at the 850 temps. Pittsburgh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 18z EURO seemed to hold. Hold what? A wrong forecast. At best may trash can whiting. No one is getting 1-3 in metro areas lol. We can’t even get that in an all snow even lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Hold what? A wrong forecast. At best may trash can whiting. No one is getting 1-3 in metro areas lol. We can’t even get that in an all snow even lolI thought you were in it for the chase anyway… take 1-2” of digital snow and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I thought you were in it for the chase anyway… take 1-2” of digital snow and run lol 1-2 of real snow dosent excite me yet alone digital 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: 34f in Pittsburgh? Yeah because cold air is coming in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO seemed to hold. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Maps?On mobile, so apologies if quality is lower. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah because cold air is coming in from the west. If you are talking accumulation, I get it. Just saying the 850s are really good on the back end of the front regardless of the surface temp In Pittsburgh, which many in this forum have elevation on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: On mobile, so apologies if quality is lower. Euro has been consistent for a few days now. I take it as the euro is saying there's a Good chance of snow falling from the sky. Considering temps and ground conditions accumulations are unlikely unless you have 1000 ft in elevation. At night helps though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 Other thing about the Euro is that it’s also juicing up like the GFS. 2-3” of precip - like I said earlier, I’m excited to see these systems when we are timing it with prime climo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Euro has been consistent for a few days now. I take it as the euro is saying there's a Good chance of snow falling from the sky. Considering temps and ground conditions accumulations are unlikely unless you have 1000 ft in elevation. At night helps though. surprisingly, euro has .5"-1" of snow depth in NW areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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