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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"?

I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore?  I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something.

That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening.

Just throwing this out there... we have been in a hostile cycle of the pacific and atlantic for the last 7 years, one that rivals previous "bad periods" with similar mean long wave patterns over a similar 7-8 year period.  But this was HAS been like 25% worse.  I know for the last year and a half of winter we've had absolutely no snow but in the larger 8 year period we're frustrated with we have had some snow.  But during that time we have also had numerous "perfect track rainstorms".  Yes those were always a thing, but IMO never at the frequency they are happening now.  So if some of those had been snow we aren't in this 700 day snow drought right now and the last 7 years are more in line with previous bad periods.  It's probably just that simple.  

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2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I lived in Tinton Falls/ Mon County for 30 years. Born in Long Branch at Mon Medical.  My Ex grandparents live in Whiting. 

People seem way too enthusiastic in the LR thread over next Tuesday's rainstorm. I am just not seeing much of anything other than a brief cool down followed by more cutters.

i know for a certainty i'm going to regret this

but what are ex-grandparents? like an ex-parrot or is it something else?

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3 hours ago, 87storms said:


We didn’t have any big snows outside of Snowzilla in ‘16, but I do have a couple inches in my records from Feb 15 (looks like it stuck to all surfaces) and several snow showers/icing events. I was living in Bethesda at the time, so there might have been more further nw.

 

3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Wasn't the 15/16 season one storm?

Warm Rain, 40 inches of snow. Warm Rain.

Not that one should complain about that, but I'd have preferred it spread out. 

 

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

IMBY:

snow.JPG

2014/2015

Nov-  3.6

Dec-  0.7

Jan-  0.2

Feb-  23.1

March-  6.1 

33.7 total, plus 37 'T's

2015/2016

Jan-  19.1

Feb-  7.8

March-  5.0

Apr-  1.5

33.4 total, plus 19 'T's

Granted 15/16 got off to a slower start, but went deeper into the year.

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I haven't seen the scores, but I think the GFS has been generally good the last couple years.  It hasn't really showed much in the way of any digital blue...which would be accurate.  I actually use the GFS now up until within 24 hrs.  Whether that's the correct way or not, I don't know, but I've seen the NAM miss enough times close to gametime that I find it more useful for showing potential convection than a broad brush of temps/precip.

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I haven't seen the scores, but I think the GFS has been generally good the last couple years.  It hasn't really showed much in the way of any digital blue...which would be accurate.  I actually use the GFS now up until within 24 hrs.  Whether that's the correct way or not, I don't know, but I've seen the NAM miss enough times close to gametime that I find it more useful for showing potential convection than a broad brush of temps/precip.

The GFS does a decent job with rainfall totals. I’ve made some accurate 3 day forecasts with it as a heavy contributor. I’ve been burned quite a few times by the Euro.

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Yuck. Temps with the arctic front in south central TX, are expected to fall to 10 degrees. Highs only in the upper 20s, I think Monday? I am going to lose all my beloved plants, have to start completely over again. Thank goodness spring starts for us March 1. We are supposed to be 60 this time of year. This ten degree bull is getting ridiculous. And guess what, not even one frackin' DROP of liquid non freezing rain with the front! Not one drop! Not one!

No one on this forum had the heart to admit to me that a near record frigid monster high pressure, was gonna slam hard right into Texas!

This is Year 3 of the Drought. No rain. Texas is gonna blow away. Even less water than California! Diaspora is imminent! Too many people moving to Texas, wonderful folks from Central America coming on in and also millions of people from other parts of the country! Jobs are incredible here! Never seen so much construction! Everyone is sucking up the aquifer water too! Boy I am gonna love it when I have no more well water and we are all fighting tooth and nail for the little water left in the Colorado River!

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can you believe some Moron was posting 500mb maps of December 2024 today?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Gee, who could have that been? 

Either way, that “moron” saved me a lot of time knowing next winter will be a rat B)

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Gee, who could have that been? 
Either way, that “moron” saved me a lot of time knowing next winter will be a rat B)
Hopefully I saved you 40 pages 85000 words and 9 days

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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Modeling continues to indicate higher probabilities for freezing precip over south central TX for Sunday night/Monday. Along with expected sub freezing ambient temps, there may be travel impacts.

I was so hopeful this crap could be avoided this winter down here. Surely we have paid our penance for winter nonsense last late Jan/early Feb with that devastating three quarter inch icestorm!

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Modeling continues to indicate higher probabilities for freezing precip over south central TX for Sunday night/Monday. Along with expected sub freezing ambient temps, there may be travel impacts.
I was so hopeful this crap could be avoided this winter down here. Surely we have paid our penance for winter nonsense last late Jan/early Feb with that devastating three quarter inch icestorm!
Why are you posting this in the panic room?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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