December 2023

[weatherwiz]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that trend towards more of a +PNA as we creep into the more standard long range is also the exact opposite of what we saw last year. makes sense given that we're in a Nino now

My knowledge of the MJO is still pretty garbage so my thoughts here are more me thinking in my head to understand, but too me it seems like these slow changes we're seeing within guidance are very closely related to MJO progression being modeled. IMO, the MJO almost certainly will eventually move into more favorable phases. People can say whatever about how these pattern changes keep getting pushed back and use that as a means to say winter suck but that is just not meteorologically correct. 

I understand the MJO is not a driver and more of a modulator so I'm not saying the MJO will be driving the pattern but I think it's been pretty apparent how the MJO has modulated the pattern and how it will do so moving forward. People want to scream Dec had no chance b/c of typical strong EL Nino climo...well the same people (the trolls) better start mentioning the fact how as we move through EL Nino winters there is a tendency to have a better pattern in the NPAC and increased potential for blocking. We're beginning to see the slow trends towards the more favorable PAC and the MJO is slowly propagating into a more favorable phase pattern. 

I am fairly confident we're going to get very busy. Now I can't guarantee that means everyone sees snow or we don't have mixing to deal with but there will be people who cash in.

[weatherwiz]

I don't know what it is about tonight but I'm feeling good. Real good. I'm feeling great about winter and in general. Maybe it's finally being over covid and having some energy...I'm actually drinking a second beer during the Bruins game. For the past month I didn't even finish a full one. But it has me feeling good and it has me feeling good looking at the long-range. I hope Santa leaves the trolls crushed coal...they aren't even deserving of a lump of coal. Being subjected to 5 posts and wasting it trolling  the only torches they'll be getting in January is when they open their ovens.

[George001]

I have never been too optimistic about December, but I haven’t actually seen a ton of hype like last December. I went back and looked through the posts of several posters who are calling for a big pattern change late Dec-early Jan to see if there was any moving of the goalposts, and it has been consistent. Once the goalposts start moving that’s a very bad sign. It looks like the pattern change actually will happen, now the question is whether it will change to a good pattern or just a different bad pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know what it is about tonight but I'm feeling good. Real good. I'm feeling great about winter and in general. Maybe it's finally being over covid and having some energy...I'm actually drinking a second beer during the Bruins game. For the past month I didn't even finish a full one. But it has me feeling good and it has me feeling good looking at the long-range. I hope Santa leaves the trolls crushed coal...they aren't even deserving of a lump of coal. Being subjected to 5 posts and wasting it trolling  the only torches they'll be getting in January is when they open their ovens.

It’s called Lithium - standard entry treatment protocol should work well as an effective management tool. Librium also an option. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know what it is about tonight but I'm feeling good. Real good. I'm feeling great about winter and in general. Maybe it's finally being over covid and having some energy...I'm actually drinking a second beer during the Bruins game. For the past month I didn't even finish a full one. But it has me feeling good and it has me feeling good looking at the long-range. I hope Santa leaves the trolls crushed coal...they aren't even deserving of a lump of coal. Being subjected to 5 posts and wasting it trolling  the only torches they'll be getting in January is when they open their ovens.

I'm not a doctor, but if I were, I would diagnose you with a gross tolerance deficit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, George001 said:

I have never been too optimistic about December, but I haven’t actually seen a ton of hype like last December. I went back and looked through the posts of several posters who are calling for a big pattern change late Dec-early Jan to see if there was any moving of the goalposts, and it has been consistent. Once the goalposts start moving that’s a very bad sign. It looks like the pattern change actually will happen, now the question is whether it will change to a good pattern or just a different bad pattern.

I feel like there are two inflection points for this winter.....the first one represented by whether or not we could pull a good event or two in December to really be able to pull a rabbit from the hat and get an epic season.....that was possible, but looks to be going by the wayside.

The second more important inflection point is to get a good event or two in early January before things go sideways for again while the tropospheric energy fluxes into the stratosphere. I think this will be necessary for an above average snowfall season across much of SNE because getting above climo will be a tall task if we wait until the SSW begins to pay dividends late month and into February.

This is mainly for SNE, as NNE as already done okay and the mid Atlantic only needs one major event to do well.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like there are two inflection points for this winter.....the first one represented by whether or not we could pull a good event or two in December to really be able to pull a rabbit from the hat and get an epic season.....that was possible, but looks to be going by the wayside.

The second more important inflection point is to get a good event or two in early January before things go sideways for again while the tropospheric energy fluxes into the stratosphere. I think this will be necessary for an above average snowfall season across much of SNE because getting above climb will be a tall task if we wait until the SSW begins to pay dividends late month and into February.

This is mainly for SNE, as NNE as already done okay and the mid Atlantic only needs one major event to do well.

 

Early Jan looks good but if it’s only a 2wk stretch that fails to produce, we’ll need to hand out straight jackets around here. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I have never been too optimistic about December, but I haven’t actually seen a ton of hype like last December. I went back and looked through the posts of several posters who are calling for a big pattern change late Dec-early Jan to see if there was any moving of the goalposts, and it has been consistent. Once the goalposts start moving that’s a very bad sign. It looks like the pattern change actually will happen, now the question is whether it will change to a good pattern or just a different bad pattern.

Last December thread title ""We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd"

How'd that work out? I can see why folks are jaded.

[kdxken]

38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Early Jan looks good but if it’s only a 2wk stretch that fails to produce, we’ll need to hand out straight jackets around here. 

Mine's right on the hook by the door.

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Mine's right on the hook by the door.

I bought two just in case one isn’t enough. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Last December thread title ""We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd"

How'd that work out? I can see why folks are jaded.

The massive persistent signal worked out great, but the track didn't. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Last December thread title ""We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd"

How'd that work out? I can see why folks are jaded.

January is gonna be a boatload of fun, no matter which way the cookie crumbles 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

January is gonna be a boatload of fun, no matter which way the cookie crumbles 

 

True. Either outdoors or on our monitors. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was actually mildly optimistic that the run was good looking , then I looked lol

Sometimes I wonder if you’re looking at the models upside down or if you moved to Greenland. 
 

That run has a double cutter on the 27-29 that rains to Quebec on the first pass and then leaves enough energy that a coastal low comes in and rains to Quebec again a day later . That is out to 240 hours 

he's reverse trolling, ask the mods about it

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1737279000899133561?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

ReVenGe  seems legit

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I bought two just in case one isn’t enough. 

Picked mine up from the dry cleaner. Ready for January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

00z GFS verbatim would have me ready to throw punches. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

00z GFS verbatim would have me ready to throw punches. 

and laptops

[weathafella]

It would have me book a place up near Stowe.  

[kazimirkai]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Last December thread title ""We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd"

How'd that work out? I can see why folks are jaded.

Yeah I recall a lot of anticipation for a good storm or two in December last year and I ended up with about 2 inches of slush while the Catskills a few miles north got 2 feet. Major disappointment. That sort of pattern kept on with every good chance last winter: always just on the warm side. At least I wasn't expecting any sort of white Christmas chances this year though, so I needn't brood and can look forward to a hopefully more wintry pattern while I'm home for break.

[Go Kart Mozart]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January before things go sideways for again

Are you looking at the MJO making another run through the MC starting around the 10th?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are you looking at the MJO making another run through the MC starting around the 10th?

It probably will after 15th or so. So maybe late Jan has a milder look? Getting into voodoo land though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are you looking at the MJO making another run through the MC starting around the 10th?

Independent of MJO......ridging as polar warming works it's way from trop to strat

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It probably will after 15th or so. So maybe late Jan has a milder look? Getting into voodoo land though. 

If you read the new CPC MJO update, they are expecting the MJO forcing to re-emerge in the IO (due to the +IOD weakening) in January. So competing forcing between that and the El Niño standing wave. 
 

The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state.
• A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in response to the MJO-related enhancement.
• The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after being disrupted by the MJO in early December.
• Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD event.
• The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3.
• Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most likely. 
 

Link to disco: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

It would have me book a place up near Stowe.  

Or DC

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you read the new CPC MJO update, they are expecting the MJO forcing to re-emerge in the IO (due to the +IOD weakening) in January. So competing forcing between that and the El Niño standing wave. 
 

The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state.
• A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in response to the MJO-related enhancement.
• The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after being disrupted by the MJO in early December.
• Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD event.
• The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3.
• Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most likely. 
 

Link to disco: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Perhaps a brief bout of Maritime forcing coinciding with the heat flux into the strat, but if you follow the 2016 analog, it should not be prominent enough to really dominate the month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It probably will after 15th or so. So maybe late Jan has a milder look? Getting into voodoo land though. 

Yea, agree....probably a week to 10 days before the real meat of the season lasts about a month.

[weatherwiz]

Tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to be chilly and blustery. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to be chilly and blustery. 

Hold us 

[NorEastermass128]

If we’re basically shut out by 1/10 and we’re entering a more hostile look by then, my money will be on a rat. I’m not there yet, but getting close.