wdrag Posted November 4, 2023 Author Share Posted November 4, 2023 Presuming no predawn sprinkles for the thousands camped out at Staten Island tomorrow morning. Runners can handle it. However, a few models are offering a smattering of measurable for ne PA extreme nw NJ into CT predawn Sunday. Won't bother anyone, and the dry weekend NYC should prevail... but not looking quite so rain-free as it did days ago for the northern edge of the NYC subforum. We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 a boring pattern but not bad for getting out and about during the fall. livable 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 41 for overnite low. Currently 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: a boring pattern but not bad for getting out and about during the fall. livable More 70s on Tuesday. It's a warm Pacific jet pattern. Hopefully not a precursor to winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: More 70s on Tuesday. It's a warm Pacific jet pattern. Hopefully not a precursor to winter 1 warm day then back to average 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 On 11/3/2023 at 9:19 AM, Allsnow said: This is just a small piece of the puzzle and can recover quickly but hopefully this means something better in December Currently going in the opposite direction. And even with a deep AO the cold in recent years all dumped out West and even into Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: More 70s on Tuesday. It's a warm Pacific jet pattern. Hopefully not a precursor to winter storms are my preference and this is a close second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: storms are my preference and this is a close second It’s been way way too long since we have had a wind event that mattered. I’m hoping we make up for that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s been way way too long since we have had a wind event that mattered. I’m hoping we make up for that this winter. No thanks. Trees down means no power means no heat. How bout we keep the wind south of Sunrise Hwy, heck I'll even give you LI Sound, just don't let it cross the bridge. Thanks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 The early November chill will continue to moderate this weekend. Temperatures will likely top out in the 60s tomorrow. Another cold shot could arrive late next week, perhaps preceded by some showers or a period of rain. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was +1.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.934 today. On November 1 the MJO was not available. The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.714 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s been way way too long since we have had a wind event that mattered. I’m hoping we make up for that this winter. Why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 5, 2023 Author Share Posted November 5, 2023 WantagE NJ 0.02 so far past hour or so. Measurable occurring as EC HHH predicted. More on this tomorrow. Might be close for NYC measurable around 2 or 3A. most showers north of I80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 22 hours ago, wdrag said: Presuming no predawn sprinkles for the thousands camped out at Staten Island tomorrow morning. Runners can handle it. However, a few models are offering a smattering of measurable for ne PA extreme nw NJ into CT predawn Sunday. Won't bother anyone, and the dry weekend NYC should prevail... but not looking quite so rain-free as it did days ago for the northern edge of the NYC subforum. We'll see how it plays out. .01 here in the midnight hour. Good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 5, 2023 Author Share Posted November 5, 2023 Here's the area of coverage of measurable between 11P-4A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 I just went out with the dogs and it's wet, got .01. It's over now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 52degs. (48/59) or +2. Reached 59 here yesterday at 4pm. Today: 62-65, wind nw , scattered clouds, 45 tomorrow AM. 54*(63%RH) here at 6am{Clocks Back}. 61* Noon. 64* at 3pm. Reacged 66* at 3:30pm. 63* at 5pm. 57* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 5, 2023 Author Share Posted November 5, 2023 8 hours ago, gravitylover said: I just went out with the dogs and it's wet, got .01. It's over now, right? yes... I checked more data from climate mesonets. ...generally .01-.06 in the measurable area. Also, Central Park recorded light rain in its official 2AM observation but my guess is only a Trace. Not a rain weekend in NYC? Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Strangely cold in SI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 5, 2023 Author Share Posted November 5, 2023 How it played at the ASOS sites. Think this was quite an error for the SPC HREF, GFS (both NIL),.. was pretty convective on radar at midnight-2AM. I don't see any acknowledgement on TV. Truth below inclusive of ASOS and CoCoRaHs (note the Staten Island ob of Trace). NJ and NYS mesonet sites mirror the data post. HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATIONS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 747 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2023 :Daily ASOS precipitation and temperature data : .B NYC 1105 DH12/DRH-18/PPQ/DRH-12/PPQ/DRH-6/PPQ/ .B1 DRH-0/PPQ/PPP/TX/TN/TA/SF/SD : : 24hr Max Min Cur Snow :Id 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z Pcpn Temp Temp Temp New Total : BDR 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 59 / 44 / 49 / / CDW 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / T / 63 / 38 / 44 / / DXR 0.00 / 0.00 / T / 0.02 / 0.02 / 59 / 35 / 42 / / EWR 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 63 / 42 / 47 / / FOK 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 61 / 34 / 37 / / FRG 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / 59 / 43 / 45 / / GON 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 59 / 42 / 43 / / HPN 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / 59 / 43 / 44 / / HVN 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 59 / 48 / 50 / / HWV 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 60 / 39 / 41 / / ISP 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 60 / 40 / 42 / / JFK 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 58 / 43 / 46 / / LGA 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 62 / 48 / 52 / / MGJ 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / T / 57 / 34 / 43 / / MMK 0.00 / 0.00 / T / 0.01 / 0.01 / 59 / 38 / 45 / / NYC 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / T / T / 58 / 47 / 50 / / TEB 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 60 / 41 / 42 / / MTP 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 / 62 / 46 / 48 / / .END $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 5, 2023 Author Share Posted November 5, 2023 Looking ahead: am paying attention to Wed night-Thursday morning I84 region for a possible period of wet snow. EC-EPS pattern seems in error late next weekend-early next week, but can't be sure. The repeated EC operational idea of a NYC freeze next Sunday (12th) or Monday morning (13th) is on the table but in doubt. My concern is seemingly repeated intensifying northern stream short waves diving southeast from Canada and shutting down the strength of the CAA late next weekend, while the next short carves up the attempted ridge in the Great Lakes by next Monday the 13th. For me it's interesting in rural nw suburbs. I'd love an early start to snow season---that would. bode well. Pattern looks like it might want to warm up a bit with respect to normals late next week (18th?)?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 50 off a low of 38. Mostly to partly cloudy low- mid 60s. Near/above normal through the 10th. 11/11 - 11/14 cools back a bit below normal then moderating by mid month. Kind of back and forth deal the next 10 - 2 weeks bias near slightly above normal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 79 (2022) just a year ago touched / near 80 NYC: 78 (1961) LGA: 75 (2022) Lows: EWR: 27 (1933) NYC: 23 (1879) LGA: 32 (1951) Historical: 1894 - The famous Election Day snowstorm occurred in Connecticut. As much as a foot of wet snow fell, and the snow and high winds caused great damage to wires and trees. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI. (David Ludlum) 1894: A significant snowstorm impacted New England on November 5th through 6th. It formed off the New Jersey coast on the 5th and passed east of Connecticut with rapidly increasing heavy rain, snow, and high winds. The heavy snow and high winds caused significant damage to trees and brought down telegraph poles by the hundreds. As a result, all southern New England's telegraph and telephone services were crippled, and fallen poles and trees delayed railroad trains. 1961 - Strong Santa Ana winds fanned the flames of the Bel Air and Brentwood fires in southern California destroying many homes. At 10 PM the Los Angeles Civic Center reported a temperature of 74 degrees along with a dew point of 5 degrees. On the 6th, Burbank reported a relative humidity of three percent. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - A slow moving storm produced five to nine inch rains across northern Georgia causing the Toccoa Dam to burst. As the earthen dam collapsed the waters rushed through the Toccoa Falls Bible College killing three persons in the dorms. Thirty-eight persons perished at a trailer park along the stream. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Low pressure off the California coast produced stormy weather in the southwestern U.S. Flash flooding stranded 8000 persons in the Death Valley National Park of southern California. Thunder- storms over southern Nevada produced dime size hail and wind gusts to 68 mph around Las Vegas. Unseasonably mild weather in the northeastern U.S. was replaced with snow and gale force winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A powerful low pressure system produced high winds from the Great Plains to New England, and produced heavy snow in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Knoxville TN, and reached 80 mph at Pleasant Valley VT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Temperatures warmed into the 80s across much of Texas. Highs of 86 degrees at Abilene, Fort Worth and San Angelo were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 2002 - Severe thunderstorms moved across southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle, producing wind damage and several tornadoes. A tornado struck the Alabama town of Abbeville killing 2 people and injuring 25 (Associated Press). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 40 my low, up to 54 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 On 11/4/2023 at 10:14 AM, SnoSki14 said: More 70s on Tuesday. It's a warm Pacific jet pattern. Hopefully not a precursor to winter What happened to your 70’s this weekend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Some more clearing now and up to 57. A dry weekend finally - cloudy yesterday but still pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: What happened to your 70’s this weekend? I mean it's 66F now. Probably will get to 68-69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 14 hours ago, psv88 said: Why? The obvious, I love storms and we are due. The last true high wind event for our area was in March 18. Localize it to the south shore of the island if you want. All the big trees either fell between 3/10 and sandy or were cut down. 75mph gusts are a real treat to weather enthusiasts and would due little practical damage. Even my dad cut down his 14’ circumference silver maple last year, despite me holding him off for years. Wound up being a good choice as the trunk was full of rot and its days were numbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Zzzzz this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 top 10 day of the year. Especially for the cooler half of the year. 61F and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 Here’s the tree, poor guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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