GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The 0Z EPS had another drop in US landfalls to the lowest of the last 5 runs: 9/9 0Z: 3 (6%) 9/17 (3 ME) 9/8 12Z: 5 (10%) 9/15-18 (5 ME) 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong southwesterly shear. The central dense overcast has expanded, with periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity near the center. The most recent geostationary satellite infrared images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee's eye. Overnight, there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed, elliptical eyewall. Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central pressure. The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to investigate Lee later this morning. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low. Global models suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for the entire forecast period. The statistical and consensus intensity aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before restrengthening in about 12-24 hours. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The hurricane is situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to build westward and southwestward during the next few days. This steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward trajectory with a slower forward speed. By next Wednesday, the hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge. While the model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move before it makes the turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of the various track consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. 2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the weekend. 3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 15 hours ago, HKY_WX said: Yeah just noticed this. Long way to go, especially for new England. we've all let it go days ago, besides the diehard weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period NHC was too generous imo with the advisory at 5p yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 The eye is becoming apparent in satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 She passed north of 20N at about 57.7W. I know we were using 60 as a marker for potential landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 6Z GEFS: 5 (16%) US hits (3 ME, 1 NY, 1 NJ) (9/16-7) vs 3 on prior 3 runs. Just passing along facts. Use the info however one wishes. I still think the chance is low (~10%) but still not yet near zero. Still too far out with runs like this. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 It was 963 mb as of last evening but then the recon from 2 hrs ago showed 956 mb. And then this showed 100 knts/still major 954 mb as of 12Z: AL, 13, 2023090912, , BEST, 0, 200N, 578W, 100, 954, HU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: we've all let it go days ago, besides the diehard weenies. Yea, I have never really assessed this as much of a threat. Maybe I'm wrong, but don't think so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 It’s amazing that even with shear now 24 hours in the core has been constantly emitting heavy lightning for the past 40+ hours. This storm seems primed to reintensify the moment the shear relaxes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The eye is becoming apparent in satellite imagery. Has that "skunked" post ERC, "seen my best days" type of appeal IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has that "skunked" post ERC, "seen my best days" type of appeal IMO. It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 46 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: It’s amazing that even with shear now 24 hours in the core has been constantly emitting heavy lightning for the past 40+ hours. This storm seems primed to reintensify the moment the shear relaxes. The was discussed on the Weather Channel this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I have never really assessed this as much of a threat. Maybe I'm wrong, but don't think so. Yeah, it's interesting to track and see outcomes. colossal model failures at this range are not unheard of, ofc. Time's running out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Lee looks like garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Lee looks like garbageGive it time though. Old inner core is still pulsing. Shear is not fully gone yet. Should look drastically different tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5. Reminds me of Irene in 2011. Once her inner core was disrupted, she was kind of a mess of a cyclone that couldn’t get it together as she crawled up the EC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Give it time though. Old inner core is still pulsing. Shear is not fully gone yet. Should look drastically different tomorrow. In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Reminds me of Irene in 2011. Once her inner core was disrupted, she was kind of a mess of a cyclone that couldn’t get it together as she crawled up the EC. I can't remember the name/year (and I figured it was 2 or 3 years either side of 2008 but can't find it on Wiki), a major that entered the Yucatan, wandered for two or three days, and then never strengthened again once over the Gulf on the way North. Lee still has an inner core, unlike that system. But Lee has the above mentioned Franklin wake. It might stay a high end Cat 2/low end Cat 3. NHC is being kind calling a 3, IMHO (even with NOAA 100 kt SFMR). Noticing now chances of a New York/New England landfall seem very low (not impossible, just extremely low) board interest in Lee is back to the regular tropical people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers.Wasn’t Franklin 2 weeks ago? One would have to assume the SSTs have recovered a little since then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Gfs continues to show fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Looks to me Lee is starting to “breathe” again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 45 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: Wasn’t Franklin 2 weeks ago? One would have to assume the SSTs have recovered a little since then It takes a while for SSTs to really build, and Franklin left a really big wake. Note that the little blob of higher SSTs directly above the wake is erroneous. 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that, too. My money is on it not every regaining its former vigor, but that isn't saying much since it was cat 5. Right, given the comments I’ve seen so far today people will meh this when it reintensifies, but I think this gets back to a 4 once the shear abates some, which I believe will happen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Has that "skunked" post ERC, "seen my best days" type of appeal IMO. There's not a whole lot of storms that ever reach 140 knots. I guess we will see if it can truly recover to the 120kt as forecast by the NHC at this time. I would say that the current ongoing recon pass has about 95-97kt of flight level winds, and 960 mb. It honestly it may be about 87 knots for the surface winds, and the 960 is impressive, but obviously not the 930mb and such. So yeah, a long way downward form Thursday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 It is impressive it’s maintaining 959mb pressure with an open eyewall (per latest dropsonde and vortex report). But it feels like 87kt might be underestimated; 3 hours ago a dropsonde found 96kt surface winds and the latest dropsonde found 86kt surface winds with two 106kt unflagged SFMR readings. This system seems stronger than it has any right to be given the shear and satellite appearance. I also feel the standard flight level to surface wind adjustments haven’t matched what empirical data has shown with this storm the last two days; the surface winds are consistently stronger than they should be given observed flight level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 Latest VDM. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 17:10ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: LeeStorm Number & Year: 13 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 8Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:44:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.36N 58.74WB. Center Fix Location: 497 statute miles (799 km) to the ENE (74°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,770m (9,088ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 11kts (From the ENE at 13mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the eastG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 70kts (80.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 16:42:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 183° at 82kts (From the S at 94.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix at 16:42:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 106kts (122.0mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the WNW (302°) of center fix at 16:47:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 38° at 94kts (From the NE at 108.2mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 16:48:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) from the flight level center at 15:06:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It takes a while for SSTs to really build, and Franklin left a really big wake. Note that the little blob of higher SSTs directly above the wake is erroneous. Right, given the comments I’ve seen so far today people will meh this when it reintensifies, but I think this gets back to a 4 once the shear abates some, which I believe will happen. it depends on where the upwelling happened if the storm was in the very warm waters gulf or the deep warm waters south of cuba the water temps would have rebounded already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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