September 2023

[guinness77]

4 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Okx actually just put up an updated overview of the hurricane https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/4028d00ea6b44fd8890ba6592c15a544

That history page is absolutely bananas. That storm ripped through here in literally an hour or two and was an absolute monster. Thanks for posting this. 

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

May be time to get this into separate subject... now that NHC has it as a disturbance eventually turning out to near the benchmark.  I won't be able to do anything with this after 4P and for me probably needs another ensemble cycle (00z/22).  I sure hope this isn't another (as in the 7th-14th of Sep) non watch FFW situation for PHL/NYC metro areas this weekend.  General stream flow potential is low but it seems to me that 6 hr FFG for ne NJ is under 2"= vulnerable. Monitoring

 

 

NBM v4.1 probabilities of >2" over the 24 hours ending 12Z Sunday
continue to increase, now showing a widespread 40-50% across most of
the forecast region, up from about 30-40% last night. Probabilities
of >1" in any 6 hours has nudged up some for Saturday AM into early
afternoon, and this is the window of greatest concern for locally
heavy downpours. Overall, global ensembles paint a widespread 1" to
2.5" Saturday into early Monday for the area, with still some spread
amongst members. RFC 3 hr flash flood guidance is over 2" for much
of the region, with the exception of parts of NE NJ, where values
fall to around 1.5". This would be the area of greatest concern for
any flash flood potential, though certainly cannot be ruled out
elsewhere. More likely, nuisance flooding with the long duration
rainfall is likely with ponding and poor runoff areas.  WPC has
maintained a slight risk for excessive rainfall, indicating the
potential for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

[SACRUS]

 

9/21

 

PHL: 77
EWR: 75
New Bnswck: 75
ACY: 75
JFK: 74
BLM: 73
LGA: 73
TEB: 73
TTN: 72
ISP: 72
NYC: 71

[donsutherland1]

Dry weather will prevail through tomorrow. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region tomorrow, as clouds begin to increase.

A storm, likely subtropical in nature, will likely bring a significant rainfall to the region late Friday night into Sunday. Eastern sections will be in line for the heaviest rainfall. A general 1"-3" of rain is likely. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Temperatures will hold mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s during the weekend.

In the wake of the storm, a period of cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes or October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -26.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal).

 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dry weather will prevail through tomorrow. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region tomorrow, as clouds begin to increase.

A storm, likely subtropical in nature, will likely bring a significant rainfall to the region late Friday night into Sunday. Eastern sections will be in line for the heaviest rainfall. A general 1"-3" of rain is likely. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Temperatures will hold mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s during the weekend.

In the wake of the storm, a period of cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes or October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -26.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.122 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal).

 

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out. 

[NJwx85]

The 00z NAM is looking drier for Saturday morning.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out. 

Is it though?

[psv88]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The 00z NAM is looking drier for Saturday morning.

If Saturday is ruined, let it rain in the morning so my sons baseball is cancelled and I can sleep in. Thanks 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   62degs.(58/67) or -4.

Reached 77 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   68-72, wind e.-breezy, increasing clouds, Rain by 4AM tomorrow, 58 by tomorrow AM.

GFS,EURO 1"-2" and CMC still 3".

61*(77%RH) here at 7am.     65* at 9am.       70* at 11am.      72* at Noon.     Reached 73* at 3pm.      68* at 6pm.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out. 

It is. It illustrates how dramatically things can change.

[donsutherland1]

Three photos of this morning’s sunrise.

 

[bluewave]

Even with the closer to average last week against the warmer climate normals, the first 3 weeks of September have still finished top 5 warmest with widespread +3 to +5 departures. 
 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 58 partly cloudy.    Clouds building and rolling on in this afternoon.  9/23 - 9/26 looks rather wet and unsettled.  3 - 6 inches of rain. Overall estranged upper level into the east ridge and cut offs / stagnant flow into early October wet.  Perhaps some places to 10 inches of rain by Oct 2nd. 

 Beyond there morph into a more sustained overall warmer pattern.  

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 95 (1914)
LGA: 93 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 44 (1997)
NYC: 41 (1904)
LGA:47 (1962)

Historical:

 

1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)

1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8" 20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The Nati

2005 - For the first time in the historical record, two hurricanes reached category-5 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico in a single season as Hurricane Rita intensified before making landfall (Katrina and Rita).

 

2006: The tristate area of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky was struck by the worst tornado outbreak in the recorded history during the month of September. One supercell produced a long-track F4 tornado across southeastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois. This tornado traveled 27.5 miles.

[forkyfork]

10 hours ago, psv88 said:

Is it though?

central park lol

[Big Jims Videos]

That is a rough looking long range on some of the models this afternoon. Constant battering onshore flow and storms.  Beaches are going to be hurting.  Next weekend will have the highest lunar tides of the year.  

[mob1]

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even with the closer to average last week against the warmer climate normals, the first 3 weeks of September have still finished top 5 warmest with widespread +3 to +5 departures. 
 

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

 

Wasnt it 90+ for several days to start the month? When you start +15, even getting to normal is going to take a miracle

[donsutherland1]

Ophelia will bring a significant rainfall to the region late tonight into Sunday. Eastern sections will be in line for the heaviest rainfall. A general 1"-3" of rainfall is likely. Local amounts of 4" are possible.

Gusty winds and rough surf will impact the Jersey Shore, Connecticut Shore, and Long Island. Coastal flooding is likely at high tide. Temperatures will hold mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s tomorrow and lower to middle 60s on Sunday.

In the wake of the storm, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up somewhat warmer than normal, but noticeably cooler than had been the case on the guidance even a few days ago. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could still develop in eastern North America as September concludes and October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.223 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Wasnt it 90+ for several days to start the month? When you start +15, even getting to normal is going to take a miracle

The 2nd week was pretty warm also with mid 80s several days to low 90s one day. We didn’t get our first slightly cooler departure day until the 15th.

[MJO812]

60s forecasted all next week

Beautiful 

[IrishRob17]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

60s forecasted all next week

Beautiful 

Getting close to hoodie weather 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of September are averaging   63degs.(56/69) or -3.

Month to date is  72.7[+2.0].     September should end at  70.1[+0.8].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   60-64, wind ne.-gusty to 35+, Rain till at least 4am tomorrow, 59.    

GFS is under an inch for the event.    EURO/CMC are 2"-3".

61*(78%RH) here at 7am-Rain.     60* at 9am.     59* at 11am.     61* at Noon.     61* all day and still is at 7pm.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The last 8 days of September are averaging   63degs.(56/69) or -3.

Month to date is  72.7[+2.0].     September should end at  70.1[+0.8].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   60-64, wind ne.-gusty to 35+, Rain till at least 4am tomorrow, 59.    

GFS is under an inch for the event.    EURO/CMC are 2"-3".

61*(78%RH) here at 7am-Rain.

The wet foliage this month at the ASOS is really keeping those departures artificially low. Stations will need to hold  +1.8 to +2.0 to qualify for a top 10 warmest. So relatively small departures are all that’s needed with the jump in the 91-20 climate normals. 
 

EWR…+3.9

LGA….+2.3

NYC….+2.0

JFK…..+2.9

HPN…..+3.4

BDR……+2.2

HVN…..+5.2

ISP……..+3.3

PHL…….+3.3

POU…….+3.1

[MJO812]

Hoodie weather!

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wet foliage this month at the ASOS is really keeping those departures artificially low. Stations will need to hold  +1.8 to +2.0 to qualify for a top 10 warmest. So relatively small departures are all that’s needed with the jump in the 91-20 climate normals. 
 

EWR…+3.9

LGA….+2.3

NYC….+2.0

JFK…..+2.9

HPN…..+3.4

BDR……+2.2

HVN…..+5.2

ISP……..+3.3

PHL…….+3.3

POU…….+3.1

HVN needs to be checked…looks too warm 

[SnoSki14]

We'll sort of be artificially cool despite a very warm pattern aloft because of how the highs are setting up. 

Tons of onshore flow, precip & clouds will keep highs several degrees below normal. But this is not a fall pattern. Lows aren't even sniffing 40s anywhere anytime soon. 

[wdrag]

Easterly gradient and tidal flooding Thursday Sep 28-Sunday Oct 1.  Multiple tide cycles have a chance of minor coastal flooding, with moderate possible on one or two cycles as tides runs high in this time frame. Modeling is trying to develop low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast with a fairly strong high over New England. Could be of future interest for tides/gale/rain for NJ/LI? 

 

 

[SACRUS]

9/22

 

 

EWR: 74
PHL: 74
JFK: 73
LGA: 72
ISP: 72
New Bnswck: 72
TEB: 72
ACY: 71
NYC: 71
TTN: 71
BLM: 69

 

 

[SACRUS]

57 / 56 and 0.40 in the bucket thru 1000.   Ophelia making it feel murky  / wet and grey for the next few days.  Atlantic ridge and ridge into Canada keeping us caught underneath and slow stuck up pattern which should mean near normal and wet through the end of the month.  Cut off lows and easterly fetch before we transition into a warmer overall pattern with flow going more NW/Wrsly into early October.  Euro builds ridge into the Ohio valley later in the run, seasonal tendency was for that to corrrect towards MS or TX - we'll see if that lingers.

 

Perhaps some of that clearing into the DelMarva Dry slot works its way up later today to see a hint of sunshine.