Will - Rutgers Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 no CTG yet, some bright flashes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 I doubt the area of rain survives any further east then the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I doubt the area of rain survives any further east then the city I guess you’re not following forks. Elevated ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Definitely weakening and starting to break apart a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Don’t see this being much more then .15-.2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Wow huge collapse in the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 The line is splitting as forecast. One area will go towards SE NY, the other the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Not sure why my post was deleted but well modeled by HRRR and HRDPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Yep hardly anything left of the line for our area. It just went poof as we expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Raining, had a 40 mph gust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep hardly anything left of the line for our area. It just went poof as we expected. Pretty dark clouds to the west. Might still get some wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep hardly anything left of the line for our area. It just went poof as we expected. Yup. Models ftw. Hopefully we can get .10 of rain to add on to this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Totally falling apart in my area...just a rumble with flashes and light rain lol Kudos to @Allsnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep hardly anything left of the line for our area. It just went poof as we expected. The HRRR and HRDPS have been doing a great job with convection. Maybe the introduction of AI plus the Euro eventual 5km resolution upgrade will improve convection forecasts past 48 hrs. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/ECMWF_Roadmap_to_2025.pdf 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Just some light rain and breezy as what was left of the line moved in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Lol it really did go poof I really didn't expect that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 A line of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will push across the region this evening. Drier weather will follow tomorrow and continue through midweek. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week. Today, Laredo reached an August monthly record-tying 111°. El Paso reached 109°, its third consecutive day above the pre-2023 August monthly record of 108°. Del Rio (109°), San Angelo (109°), and San Antonio (105°) all set records. New Orleans reached 100° for a record 3rd consecutive day. Baton Rouge reached 100° for a record 10th consecutive day. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -27.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.254 today. On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.646 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.506 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I doubt the area of rain survives any further east then the city Which is it? No rain? .15-.20? Less than .10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I doubt the area of rain survives any further east then the city Basically agree. It's weakening. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 8, 2023 Author Share Posted August 8, 2023 Getting a bit of thunder and light rain here now. All I need is 0.18" to put me at an 1.00" for the day which at the least I think I will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Which is it? No rain? .15-.20? Less than .10? .15-.20 I’m referring to my location. East of city will get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: .15-.20 I’m referring to my location. East of city will get nothing I think you will do better than that, but thx for clarifying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Just now, Rmine1 said: I think you will do better than that, but thx for clarifying Nothing? Like not a single drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 The ground isn't even wet yet. Impressive wind gusts though. At least 40 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Light rain and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Rain finally picking up...windy with occasional lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 The part of the line swinging over Morristown looks to be holding together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Lightning and distant thunder here with the line still 25-30 miles to my SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Lightning and distant thunder here with the line still 25-30 miles to my SW. Had 0.71” this morning. We’ll see what this line has left when is moves east towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 43 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not sure why my post was deleted but well modeled by HRRR and HRDPS This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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