August 2023

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Will those tropical remnants make it up here? 

 

Wouldnt surprise me to see a northward drift of the remnants but not sure it get much north of VA/MD as the trou lifts out and riding builds heights.  Will be interesting to watch Idalia was just named.

 

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't be surprised to see another mega plains ridge while the coast gets backdoored. 

In fact that's how the GFS has been trending.

The drought in the plains and these stuck patterns make this the more probable route than a big eastern ridge. 

[SACRUS]

 

85 / 63 and a great day.  

[JustinRP37]

It is amazing lately how engrained out weather patterns become. They just get stuck. So if it is warm come December, bank on a warm winter. If it is cold and snowy, then we can be happy. 

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Models now have 1-3 inches of rain Tuesday into Wednesday 

Yeah the models have increased the amounts. 12z Euro and CMC showing 1 to 2 inches for a lot of the area. Looking like a nice soaking tuesday night into wednesday morning. Then the humidity drops wednesday afternoon and we have a beautiful low humidity stretch for a few days. 

[psv88]

Another perfect day. What a summer

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

We dont. Just records. As he said, climate isnt static. The 30 year rolling normal gives you a short-term perspective. The all time records that date back since the 1880s give you a a longer short-term perspective.

None of them even come close to giving us a medium term or long term perspective. 400 years from now, people will have much better historical data dating back much longer than our generation had. 

We finally have a BN summer month. 

30 years ago this would have been a summer with little AC use.

A noticeable change just in our lifetimes. But nonetheless, still over a short term reference

Then why do we use record high and low temperatures all the way back to the 1800s?

[cleetussnow]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Then why do we use record high and low temperatures all the way back to the 1800s?

I think 30 years is good for weather norms.  Thats a generation or so.  What people lived through and experienced in their memory vs. whats happening today.  So this summer isn’t really anomalous.  A tad cool, but not anomalous.  Going back 100 years isn't practical for the average joe planning a picnic or a farmer putting in alfalfa.  

For Climate norms, we need to go back 10,000 years. Or more.  JMHO.  Figure out what ended that last ice age and then why the Holocene has been relatively warm since the last ice age, and relatively stable compared to the Pleistocene ,  and why sea levels have risen for the last 4000 years.  Its not exactly geologic pace, but the climate over the last 14,000 years has been insane to the point where there actually are massive geologic features all over the place on account of an abrupt climate change that melted the ice sheet. Its been busy around here…relativity speaking.

[donsutherland1]

August will close out with cooler than normal readings. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see highs only in the 70s across much of the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Gulf Region roasted for another day under near all-time and all-time record heat. All-time record temperatures included:

Beaumont: 111°
Houston: 109° (tied all-time record)
New Iberia, LA: 109°
Lafayette, LA: 110°
Lake Charles: 109°
Lufkin, TX: 111°
New Orleans: 105°

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. Some short-lived warmth could arrive late in the first week of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -10.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.769 today.

On August 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.182 (RMM). The August 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.354 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

8/27

 

PHL: 88
EWR: 87
ACY: 86
New Brnswck: 85
TEN: 84
NYC: 84
ISP: 84
TTN: 84
LGA: 83
BLM: 83
JFK: 83

[winterwarlock]

how many 90s does everyone have thus far. I have 20 but only one for August 

[kat5hurricane]

Another gorgeous weather weekend, lots of beach and pool time. We've been really spoiled this month, one of the best weather Augusts that I can remember.

[psv88]

85 today and perfect. Too bad we can’t have this all year

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of August are averaging   75degs.(70/81) or +1.

HW Alert?????    Sept. 3-10.  Avg.>  84(74/94) or +12!.

Month to date is  75.3[-1.1].     August should end at  75.1[-1.0].

Reached 82 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today: 75-79, wind e., m. cloudy, Rain by tomorrow AM, 69.

72*(88%RH) here at 7am.     74* at 9pm.      76* at Noon.      80* at 2pm.     Reached 81* at 2:30pm.      78* at 3:30pm.      73* at 8pm.

[SACRUS]

 

73 / 67 humid and overcast.  Trough moves through the next 48 hours with showers and rain.  Perhaps the heaviest rain staying south and east, we'll see as potential exists for >1 inch of rain.  Beyond there Thu (8/31) into the weekend.  Near normal with ride building into the Plains through   Sat (9/2)  again ridge axis has low wrap around keeping it warm and humid (onshore / southerly) with strongest heat west of the area once to labor day. 

Overall warm into the beyond elevated heights into the east and should see a push of the heat 9/4 - 9/11 for a day or so otherwise onshore / humid and the way beyond still looks warmer than normal.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (1948)
NYC: 100 (1948)
LGA: 98 (1948)


Lows:

 

EWR:  51 (1941)
NYC: 50 (1885)
LGA: 54 (1986)


Historical:

 

1898 - Torrents of rain accompanied by a furious wind upset the rain gage at Fort Mohave AZ. However, water in a wash tub set out on the mesa, clear of everything, measured eight inches after the 45 minute storm. (The Weather Channel)

1911 - Saint George, GA, was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - Lieutenant Colonel William Rankin bailed out of his plane at a height of 46,000 feet into a violent thunderstorm, and lived to write about the 45 minute journey (which normally would have been a thirteen minute descent). He described it as one of the most bizarre and painful experiences imaginable. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Doria caused devastating floods in central and northeast New Jersey resulting in 138 million dollars damage. In southeastern Pennsylvania, high winds downed trees and power lines, and in New York City, heavy rains flooded streets and subways. (David Ludlum)

1973: An F4 tornado touched down near Canaan, New York, and moved to western Massachusetts. Three people were killed in West Stockbridge, Massachusetts when a truck stop was destroyed, and another person died in a ruined house nearby.

1986 - The temperature at Apalachicola, FL, dipped to 62 degrees to shatter their previous August record by four degrees, having tied their August record high of 99 degrees on the 2nd of the month. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms broke the heat in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf Coast Region, but not before seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph downing large trees around Horse Shoe NC, and pelted southeastern Meridian MS with hail two inches in diameter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Tropical Storm Chris spawned a tornado near Manning, SC, which killed one person, and spawned three tornadoes in North Carolina. Chris produced one to two foot tides, and three to six inch rains, over coastal South Carolina. Severe thunderstorms in New York State and Vermont, developing ahead of a cold front, spawned a tornado which killed one person at Hector NY, produced tennis ball size hail at Brandon VT, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Lyndonville VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 4.50 inches of rain around McCook, and 4.65 inches near Auburn and Brownville. Showers in Montana pushed the rainfall total for the month at Havre past the previous August record of 3.90 inches. (The National Weather Summary)

1990: Between 3:15 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. a devastating F5 tornado ripped a 16.4 mile-long path through portions of Kendall and Will counties in northern Illinois. A total of 29 people were killed, and 350 more were injured. An estimated $160 million in damages occurred. The tornado's path width ranged from 200 yards to half a mile. A total of 470 homes were destroyed, and another 1000 homes were damaged. Sixty-five thousand customers lost power.

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina attained Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbars (26.6 inHg).

[bluewave]

Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast. 
 

 

[winterwx21]

Looks as if dewpoints could get down to the high 40s thursday and friday. A fall preview before we go into the much warmer pattern over the weekend. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Surf at area beaches will be pretty large Wednesday and Thursday from Franklin. If you want to witness the power of the ocean and some washovers and beach erosion it’s worth heading to the beach those days! Franklin now forecast to 155mph while sitting due south of us. One of the strongest storms ever to pass between Bermuda and NC. 

[winterwx21]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast. 
 

 

12z run of RGEM not as impressed and gives most of the area a quarter to half inch, but 3km NAM gives a lot of the area heavy rain. Hopefully we can get a good soaking tuesday night into wednesday morning, since it's looking like our last chance of rain for a long time. 

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

12z run of RGEM not as impressed and gives most of the area a quarter to half inch, but 3km NAM gives a lot of the area heavy rain. Hopefully we can get a good soaking tuesday night into wednesday morning, since it's looking like our last chance of rain for a long time. 

I dont understand  the need for more heavy rain..nowhere close to drought period..rained 2 inches over thurs-sat and 3 inches the propr week

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Surf at area beaches will be pretty large Wednesday and Thursday from Franklin. If you want to witness the power of the ocean and some washovers and beach erosion it’s worth heading to the beach those days! Franklin now forecast to 155mph while sitting due south of us. One of the strongest storms ever to pass between Bermuda and NC. 

Wednesday sounds like a fun evening to have dinner at the restaurant at Jones Beach by the boardwalk. 

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I understand  the need for more heavy rain..nowhere close to drought period..rained 2 inches over thurs-sat and 3 inches the propr week

Yeah I know we don't really need it right now since we've had a very wet last 2 months, but I'll take one more since it appears we're going into a long dry pattern after wednesday morning. 

[forkyfork]

this is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean

[forkyfork]

canadian ensemble trending in that direction 

[Stormlover74]

[BucksCO_PA]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

PHL recorded 3 consecutive record lows on 8/28-30, 49, 44 & 47 degrees. 44 degrees is the record monthly low for AUG.

Mount Pocono dropped to 31 degrees on 8/30 & Bradford checked in with a balmy 25 degrees on 8/29 - LOL, friggin 25 degrees in AUG

Conversely PHL has not recorded an AUG low in the 50's since 2013.

[Picard]

Given the bathtub water in the gulf, what's the chances Idalia blows into a Cat 4 or 5 whilst crossing the gulf?

 

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, Picard said:

Given the bathtub water in the gulf, what's the chances Idalia blows into a Cat 4 or 5 whilst crossing the gulf?

 

It could but probably weaken to a 3 at landfall