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Temperatures rose into the middle and even upper 80s across the rgion on what will likely be the warmest day for the remainder of August. Philadelphia topped out at 90°.

Meanwhile, along the Gulf Coast, a historic heat dome delivered numerous all-time record highs including:

Gulfport, MS: 107° (new all-time record)
Mobile: 106° (new all-time record)
New Orleans: 102° (tied all-time record)
Pascagoula, MS: 106° (new all-time record)

Pensacola topped out at 105°, which fell 1° short of its all-time record. Baton Rouge, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa, among other cities, remain on track for their hottest month on record.

A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -9.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.167 today.

On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.401 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.668 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal).

 

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The last 5 days are averaging    75degs.(68/82) or +1.

Month to date is   75.2[-1.2].      August should end at   75.1[-1.0].

Reached 87{H.I. 96} here at 5pm.

Today:    80-84, wind n. to ne., m. sunny-clouds late, 70 tomorrow AM.

72*(80%RH) here at 7am.    74* at 9am.     Reached  82* at 3pm.

 

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10 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Then why do we use daily high and low temperatures from the 1800s?

We dont. Just records. As he said, climate isnt static. The 30 year rolling normal gives you a short-term perspective. The all time records that date back since the 1880s give you a a longer short-term perspective.

None of them even come close to giving us a medium term or long term perspective. 400 years from now, people will have much better historical data dating back much longer than our generation had. 

We finally have a BN summer month. 

30 years ago this would have been a summer with little AC use.

A noticeable change just in our lifetimes. But nonetheless, still over a short term reference

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72 / 64 and partly / M sunny. Gorgeous day on tap.  Low / perhaps mid 80s.  Trough swings through Mon - Wed with clouds and showers  / clearing by Wed PM. Close the month near normal with tropical system into FL and SE coast which brunt looks to escape east.  

Ridging into the east to open Sep, onshore flow as ridge axis again south and west GFS / Euro swap - GFS warmer (hotter) Euro warm but onshore / humid.  We'll see if heat can make it into the area between 9/4 - 9/11.  Overall warmer than normal and tropics a glow.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

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20 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I disagree with you about widespread showers/storms to close the month wednesday and thursday. The models are showing the showers tuesday into tuesday night, and out of here by early wednesday morning. Looks like a very dry airmass coming in during the day wednesday, and very low humidity on thursday. Looks like a great close to the month to me. 

I do agree with you about a warmer pattern in the long range. Great timing for the holiday weekend. Looks like a spectacular holiday weekend with temps warming back up to the 80s. 

Looks to clear by Wed PM, perhaps similar to Saturday.

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1948) back to 100s for records highs
NYC: 101 (1948)
LGA: 99 (1948)


Lows:

EWR: 51 (1942)
NYC: 50 (1885)
LGA: 55 (1940)

 

Historical:

 

1881: A Category 2 Hurricane made landfall between St. Simons Island and Savannah, Georgia, on this day. Landfall coincided with high tide and proved very destructive. The hurricane killed 700 people, including 335 in Savannah, making it the sixth deadliest hurricane in the United States.

 

1893 - The first of three great hurricanes that year struck South Carolina drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. (David Ludlum)

 

1893: An estimated Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Georgia on this day. This hurricane produced a high storm surge of 16 to 30 feet which cost the lives of 1,000 to 2,000 people. As of now, this storm is one of the top 5, deadliest hurricanes on record for the USA.

1964 - Hurricane Cleo battered Miami and the South Florida area. It was the first direct hit for Miami in fourteen years. Winds gusted to 135 mph, and the hurricane caused 125 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Elko, NV, was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Washington D.C. soared to a record hot 100 degrees, while clouds and rain to the north kept temperature readings in the 50s in central and southeastern New York State. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 75 mph near the White Sands Missile Range, and produced three inches of rain in two hours near the town of Belen. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Belleville KS, and tennis ball size hail south of Lincoln NE. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Saint Joseph MO. Thunder- storms in North Dakota deluged the town of Linton with six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2005: Hurricane Katrina reached Category 3 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

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