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July 2023


Stormlover74
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These underperforming SE Ridge/ WAR amplifications have become few and far between. The common denominator seems to be when we have near record rainfall in area. My guess is that the ridge usually verifies stronger around 75% or more of the time from 6-10 days out. So this is one of the few times that the models were too warm. Could also be related to the near record blocking this month.
 

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Tomorrow will be another very warm and humid day. However, strong thunderstorms could cross the region during the afternoon or evening as a cold front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, Sunday will turn noticeably cooler and less humid.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is beginning to fade. The intense heat will continue to slowly fade over the coming days with the extreme heat ending on Sunday or Monday. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, there are some hints that the heat could rebuild next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.023 today.

On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.275 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.219 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

 

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14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

317

or so it seems. 

Yeah, you can go into XMACIS2 and run all the top 10 warmest and coldest months at stations around the area. It comes out to something like 1 top 10 coldest temperature month since January 2015 to around 30 top 10 warmest months. Different stations are a little over or under.  Each month of the year has had 2-3 top 10 warmest months. This gets multiplied by 12.

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

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52 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

We haven’t, but places in the western US certainly have.  Our time will come

 

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

See Montana 

that's from blocking patterns funnelling all the cold there while everywhere else is warm 

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