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Wind really whipped up here in Westchester.  I can see dark clouds to my northeast and have been hearing thunder from the same direction.  I probably just experienced about a 35 MPH gust.  

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12Z guidance continues to indicate needed rainfall around here for early next week.  Still a ways off but trends have been consistent so that is encouraging.  Will be a rather complex evolution so exact placement of best totals uncertain but HPC seems on board for needed rainfall over a large area - at least from this vantage point.

 

Screenshot 2023-06-06 at 3.06.22 PM.jpg

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25 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Thunderstorms with hail here in hazlet. Northern Monmouth county 

We had a 5 min brief shower by me. Barely enough to wet the ground. 

 

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

reading some of the nws offices in upstate and in new england saying the smoke is causing the high temps to under perform..

I wonder if the smoke is putting a cap on any thunderstorms, acting like a stable layer higher up in the atmosphere. Making any storms low topped.

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If this storm can hold up over Westchester it might be a nasty one for MBY. 

I wonder if the smoke actually helps these storms by providing nuclei for the clouds. 

Doubtful, likely a net negative. Cools the surface, and warms the upper atmosphere, which reduces instability. The presence of wildfire smoke does brighten and thicken cumulus clouds, producing additional cooling; however, the presence of more, but smaller, droplets means the resulting clouds are actually less conducive to rainfall. There is some research, however, that suggests wildfire smoke and aerosols can lead to more lightning - particularly dangerous positively charged bolts. If anything, the case can be made that the unusually smoky atmosphere contributed to the ongoing regional dry spell.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/wildfire-smoke-is-transforming-clouds-making-rainfall-less-likely#:~:text=It does indeed%2C according to,likely to fall as rain.

https://news.mit.edu/1998/smoke-1007

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2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Doubtful, likely a net negative. Cools the surface, and warms the upper atmosphere, which reduces instability. The presence of wildfire smoke does brighten and thicken cumulus clouds, producing additional cooling; however, the presence of more, but smaller, droplets means the resulting clouds are actually less conducive to rainfall. There is some research, however, that suggests wildfire smoke and aerosols can lead to more lightning - particularly dangerous positively charged bolts.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/wildfire-smoke-is-transforming-clouds-making-rainfall-less-likely#:~:text=It does indeed%2C according to,likely to fall as rain.

https://news.mit.edu/1998/smoke-1007

Wow, thanks for posting! 

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just saw a video from lindenhurst of heavy quarter size hail. Very solid by Long Island standards where’s blue wave 

That cell just missed me by a quarter of a mile, there was 65-70 dbz reflectivity just to the south of me 

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