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June 2023

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

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forkyfork
forkyfork

i miss the smoke. who wants to come with me to quebec with a bunch of matches 

FPizz
FPizz

Pretty sure I see sunspots.  The phone cam is pretty impressive

cleetussnow
cleetussnow

at least you can see the sun now. 

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

days are getting shorter now today felt like a mid october day why cant we just skip summer and enjoy this taste of fall..

Yeah, shorter by seconds lmao..and that has nothing to do with anything.  Our warmest and coldest averages always come after the solstice anyway.

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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro doesn’t have much until Saturday evening. The stuff on Sunday looks scattered and could easily dry up. 
 

 

Whenever M Nature starts kicking the can down the road, it typically doesn’t end well. Delayed starts are brutal, especially in winter. On the plus side, it’s cool enough that I’m able to take my 130lb Great Dane for walks 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro doesn’t have much until Saturday evening. The stuff on Sunday looks scattered and could easily dry up. 
 

 

Yeah it just doesn't look like the widespread heavy rain event that models were showing a few days ago. The steady rain for this morning failed and now it's just gonna be scattered activity the next few days. Of course some areas will get lucky with heavy downpours and will get a good amount of rain, but there will be other areas that get very little. Hopefully we'll get lucky here, but my expectations are pretty low now.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Whenever M Nature starts kicking the can down the road, it typically doesn’t end well. Delayed starts are brutal, especially in winter. On the plus side, it’s cool enough that I’m able to take my 130lb Great Dane for walks 

 

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it just doesn't look like the widespread heavy rain event that models were showing a few days ago. The steady rain for this morning failed and now it's just gonna be scattered activity the next few days. Of course some areas will get lucky with heavy downpours and will get a good amount of rain, but there will be other areas that get very little. Hopefully we'll get lucky here, but my expectations are pretty low now.

If I knew this was the eventual outcome (not sure why I expected differently) I would have preferred hot sunny weather over this garbage for days. It’s still cool outside with very little humidity 

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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

If I knew this was the eventual outcome (not sure why I expected differently) I would have preferred hot sunny weather over this garbage for days. It’s still cool outside with very little humidity 

 Hopefully we can clean things up for the upcoming holiday weekend. 

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

Based on all 12Z global models I am not budging on my expectations of local 4" amounts over parts of this forum for period ending 12Z Thursday 6/29.  I'll even go a step further and say better than 50% of the sub forum gets 1-2" for the period ending next Thursday 12Z.  That might not be enough to please some but with the lack of sun and lack of warm temperatures it will help with the dry conditions.  Pattern does not look unfavorable to me for decent totals over the next 6 days.  I did not water the garden last night and don't plan on watering tonight. 

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Picard

Picard

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Based on all 12Z global models I am not budging on my expectations of local 4" amounts over parts of this forum for period ending 12Z Thursday 6/29.  I'll even go a step further and say better than 50% of the sub forum gets 1-2" for the period ending next Thursday 12Z.  That might not be enough to please some but with the lack of sun and warm temperatures it will help with the dry conditions.  Pattern does not look unfavorable to me for decent totals over the next 6 days.  I did not water the garden last night and don't plan on watering tonight. 

I am holding off watering unless it's absolutely necessary.  Today was a bust, and they hung onto the rain forecasts too long, despite no radar or ground confirmation.  We'll see about the next 7 days.  Hopefully you're right, although I could skip Saturday since we have outdoor plans.  

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Based on all 12Z global models I am not budging on my expectations of local 4" amounts over parts of this forum for period ending 12Z Thursday 6/29.  I'll even go a step further and say better than 50% of the sub forum gets 1-2" for the period ending next Thursday 12Z.  That might not be enough to please some but with the lack of sun and lack of warm temperatures it will help with the dry conditions.  Pattern does not look unfavorable to me for decent totals over the next 6 days.  I did not water the garden last night and don't plan on watering tonight. 

the one difference is that we will have a humid airmass in place-today failed b/c the airmass was bone dry and NE winds continued to drive cool/dry air in....precip never had a chance

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the one difference is that we will have a humid airmass in place-today failed b/c the airmass was bone dry and NE winds continued to drive cool/dry air in....precip never had a chance

Agreed. You can certainly feel the humidity starting to rise. It was much cooler this morning. Now the DWPT has risen to 61% with a Humidity level of 73%. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Come Wednesday the euro has a total of 3-5 inches around the metro but that’s very hard to believe. It’s just the Global’s having a hard time forecasting convection 

More likely I get 3-5 additional drops. West of the city probably does better where convection often pops up in the summer. Whenever any front comes through is probably my area’s next real chance. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

More likely I get 3-5 additional drops. West of the city probably does better where convection often pops up in the summer. Whenever any front comes through is probably my area’s next real chance. 

Upton new AFD basically agrees with your thoughts. This is a none event for the coast and nyc. 
  

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A warm front remains to our south associated with a low over the 
Carolinas. The low is expected to track to the north and west, 
bringing the warm front closer tonight. A small wave of light 
showers/drizzle is expected to trek across our eastern areas this 
evening, but is looking a lot less than in previous model runs. 

Cloud cover remains persistent into tonight due to the warm from 
providing ample lift to our south. Moisture will increase overnight 
from south to north with the warm front's approach, leading to areas 
of fog early Friday morning and increasing precip chances. Overnight 
should steer clear of any widespread precip before Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A closed upper low tracks into the Ohio Valley on Friday, while at 
the surface, a warm front lifts through the region. The day likely 
begins on the showery side as the warm front moves through. Dew 
points rise into the upper 60 to near 70 with southerly flow 
developing post fropa in the morning. Most showers and thunderstorms 
look to occur west of our area, with interior locations having a 
better chance of precip than coastal locations. The warm front 
should still provide enough lift to produce intermittent light to 
moderate showers. The risk for excessive rainfall has been shifted 
inland away from our area as most of the forecasted heavier precip 
has trended in that direction. PWATs from multiple CAMs still bump 
up into the 1.8-2" threshold, which would be near the max moving 
average of 2" for this time of year. Due to this, rain chances still 
reach likely thresholds for tomorrow. NBM continues to overdo precip 
for Friday, just like it did today, so I stuck closer to our CONSALL 
guidance for rain chances Friday, with some hand edits.

Temperatures will be warmer than Thursday with the region lying in 
the warm sector, though still below normal values for late June. 
Highs top out in the mid 70s for most, and remain mild overnight 
into Saturday morning. Stuck close to NBM guidance for
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure at the surface and frontal boundaries near the 
forecast area this weekend will provide enough lift needed for 
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the weekend. A weak upper 
trough weakens as it moves toward the area from the west. However, 
models have backed off on any widespread precipitation, and given 
the poor performance of the models over the past couple of cycles in 
regards to the recent rain, or lack thereof, any confidence in heavy 
rainfall is low. Any heavy rain this weekend looks to be isolated, 
with higher chances of occurring mainly north and west of New York 
City. The NBM shows just under a 20% chance of 1.00" of rainfall in 
24 hours for KJFK. Additionally, slightly lower PWAT values are 
noted in the deterministic models, though peak values are still 
around 2.00" across the area. So, while the overall average 
precipitation for the weekend is lower, any heavy shower or 
thunderstorm could still produce close to 2.00" of rainfall. But 
again, the more likely place for this would be areas north and west.

Another cutoff develops over the central Great Lakes region Sunday 
night into Monday. This cutoff low, along with its associated 
frontal boundaries and upper trough will continue the chances for 
precipitation for the beginning through the middle of next week as 
it slowly moves east. This time frame appears to be a better chance 
for heavier rain, but again, with the poor performance with the 
models, it is low confidence at this point.

 

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wishcast_hater

wishcast_hater

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Based on all 12Z global models I am not budging on my expectations of local 4" amounts over parts of this forum for period ending 12Z Thursday 6/29.  I'll even go a step further and say better than 50% of the sub forum gets 1-2" for the period ending next Thursday 12Z.  That might not be enough to please some but with the lack of sun and lack of warm temperatures it will help with the dry conditions.  Pattern does not look unfavorable to me for decent totals over the next 6 days.  I did not water the garden last night and don't plan on watering tonight. 

Models have been consistently wrong so I don't know how you can have any faith for significant rains. At least at one time the models were good when it came to rain now they are just worthless no matter what the season. Yes, I am over generalizing.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's summer so you can't rely on synoptic rains anymore.

It will be a game of have vs havenots. Someone's going to get a lot of rain and someone isn't. 

Dews look very tropical though and any sun will aid in tstorm development quickly 

Upton saying dews are not that abnormal for this time of the year. 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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Posted
18 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Models have been consistently wrong so I don't know how you can have any faith for significant rains. At least at one time the models were good when it came to rain now they are just worthless no matter what the season. Yes, I am over generalizing.

The nam can't even agree with itself

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