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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit warmer. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through the weekend.

Parts of Texas are in the early stages of an extreme heat event. At present, there is no indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +1.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.279 today.

On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.439 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.382 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging    70degs.(62/78) or -3.

Reached 78 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   78-82, wind nw., m. sunny, 67* tomorrow AM.

63*(75%RH) here at 7am{was 61 at 6am}.       71* at 11am.       77* at 3pm.      80* at 4pm.       Reached 84* at 6pm.       80* at 8pm.

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70/ 53 and mostly sunny.  Another fabulous day on tap. Near / low 80s and mostly sunny / breezy.   ULL spins around and brings the next (repeat of wed) chance of storms Fri (6/16) and lingering Sat (6/17).  Fathers Day looking very nice to split the weekend with (repeat of Tue/Thu) near / 80s and sunny.

 

Building ridge in the Rockies / Southern Plains builds east and into Southern Canada.  A weakness under the ridge closes off in the W VA/ Carolina area 6/19 - 626.  Onshore flow - how long will it go.  With low a bit north of where it was memorial Day weekend means clouds and showers nearby in the period especially in southern NJ.  Winds will eventually shift southerly mid/late next week and more widespread rain as the low eventually lifts north and out.   Could see totals 2- 4 inches over the 7 day period or more where storms are stongest and slowest.

Clos of the month heat heads south into the area.  We'll see f the W/ Atlantic Ridge shoves west and more persistent warmth comes to open the month.

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1994)
NYC: 96 (1994)
LGA: 96 (1988)

Lows:

EWR: 48 (1933)
NYC: 48 (1933)
LGA: 54 (1951)

 

Historical:

1662 - A fast was held at Salem MA with prayers for rain, and the Lord gave a speedy answer. (David Ludlum)

1879 - McKinney ND received 7.7 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1896 - The temperature at Fort Mojave, CA, soared to 127 degrees, the hottest reading of record for June for the U.S. The low that day was 97 degrees. Morning lows of 100 degrees were reported on the 12th, 14th and 16th of the month. (The Weather Channel)

1953 - Dust devils are usually rather benign weather phenomena, however, two boys were injured by one near Prescott AZ. One of the boys suffered a black eye, and the other boy had two vertabrae fractured by wind-blown debris. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - East Saint Louis was deluged with 16.54 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state of Illinois. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the northwestern U.S. A tornado damaged five homes and destroyed a barn near Salmon ID. It lifted a metal shed 100 feet into the air, and deposited it 100 yards away. Hail an inch and a half in diameter caused ten million dollars damage to automobiles at Nampa ID. (The National Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region spawned five tornadoes around Denver, CO, in just one hour. A strong (F-3) tornado in southern Denver injured seven persons and caused ten million dollars damage. Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Portland ME was a record for June. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, including strong (F-3) tornadoes which injured three persons at Mountville PA and four persons at Columbia, PA. There were 111 reports of large hail and damaging winds, including wind gusts to 80 mph at Norfolk, VA, and Hogback Mountain, SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1991: The second largest volcanic eruption of the 20th Century began as Mt. Pinatubo injected 15 to 30 million tons of sulfur dioxide 100,000 feet into the atmosphere. 343 people were killed in the Philippines as a result of the eruptions, and 200,000 were left homeless. Material from the explosion would spread around the globe, leading to climate changes worldwide as the sun's energy was blocked out and global temperatures cooled by as much as one degree Fahrenheit. 1992 was globally one of the coldest since the 1970s.

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Latest Drought Monitor shows no changes of note for our forum week over week.  Expansion of Moderate Drought over PA, WNY and WVA.  With the expected rains over the next week our area should at least hold steady if not lose some of the Abnormally Dry classification.

Smoke coming in the back door today.  Minimal effects, just some mid and high level haze.

Screenshot 2023-06-15 at 10.14.07 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2023-06-15 at 10.14.50 AM.jpg

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5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Latest Drought Monitor shows no changes of note for our forum week over week.  Expansion of Moderate Drought over PA, WNY and WVA.  With the expected rains over the next week our area should at least hold steady if not lose some of the Abnormally Dry classification.

Smoke coming in the back door today.  Minimal effects, just some mid and high level haze.

Screenshot 2023-06-15 at 10.14.07 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2023-06-15 at 10.14.50 AM.jpg

More surface smoke tomorrow

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16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's all alone but wouldn't shock me either if some areas got skunked

Regular NAM has just a quarter to half inch for most. RGEM has our area right near the edge with the heavy rain amounts missing just to the south. There's good potential for tomorrow but as you said it could also be a bust for some. I really hope tomorrow works out for our area since the other 2 threats this week didn't produce the heavy rain amounts that we really need. 

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