June 2023

[MANDA]

one more.

[nycwinter]

kind of day where you want to open your windows and let fresh air in..

[MANDA]

Latest Drought monitor week over week.  Would expect significant changes next issuance over EPA and most of NJ, especially NNJ with much of the Abnormally Dry being erased.  Long Island should hold steady as they missed the heavy rains over the last week.

[MJO812]

Crappy week with rain chances next week

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

kind of day where you want to open your windows and let fresh air in..

Haha, not for Philly and W NJ though.  

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crappy week with rain chances next week

I know some places (L.I.) still need it but soils around here need to dry out some.

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I know some places (L.I.) still need it but soils around here need to dry out some.

Will probably be the exact same story as this past week without some trigger for convection like a front near the coast. If it’s daily southerly flow in humidity, it’ll favor the Hudson Valley, NJ and E PA and the city east will be stuck in the marine layer gunk. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (2021)
NYC: 101 (1934)
LGA: 98 (2021)

Lows:

 

EWR: 56 (1968)
NYC: 52 (1919)
LGA: 59 (1995)

 

Historical:

1904: Tornado hits Karacharov Village area of Moscow killing about 24 people.

1931 - The temperature at Monticello FL hit 109 degrees to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1954 - Hurricane Alice dumped as much as 27 inches of rain on the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. The Rio Grande River at Laredo reached a level 12.6 feet above its previous highest mark, and the roadway of the U.S. 90 bridge was thirty feet below the high water. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region, with reports of large hail and damaging winds most numerous in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Michigan. A tornado near Clare MI was accompanied by softball size hail. In Colorado, an untimely winter-like storm blanketed Mount Evans with six inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Alpena, MI, reported a record low of 39 degrees while Jackson, MS, equalled their record for the month of June with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. Thunderstorms in the central U.S. soaked Springfield MO with 3.62 inches of rain, a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced softball size hail at Kit Carson, while pea to marble size hail caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Philips County, CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: "The Corn Belt Derecho of 1998" in the following states NE, IA, IL, IN, KY. A derecho which originated in far southeast South Dakota moved across Illinois during the afternoon and evening and continued as far east as Ohio the next morning. Every county in central Illinois sustained some damage, as these severe thunderstorms passed. Winds gusted in the 60 to 80 mph range, with some localized microbursts producing winds more than 100 mph. Significant damage occurred in the microburst areas, including the towns of Morton, McLean, LeRoy, and Tolono. In Tolono, 22 cars of a southbound 101-car Illinois Central freight train were blown off the tracks. It was unknown how many vehicles were picked up by the wind, but 16 cars were turned over, and another six derailed but remained upright. The train was en route to Centralia from Chicago with a load of mixed freight, including plastic pellets and meal. The freight cars empty weighed about 60,000 pounds, while a full one weighs about 260,000 pounds. Overall, 12 people were injured, and damage was estimated at around $16 million. 

[SACRUS]

40 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I know some places (L.I.) still need it but soils around here need to dry out some.

Mon (7/3) PM into the overnight looks widespread, could see some heavy rain.  Fourth looks to clear or have leftover debris and mor scattered showers, much like yesterday id expect.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Mon (7/3) PM into the overnight looks widespread, could see some heavy rain.  Fourth looks to clear or have leftover debris and mor scattered showers, much like yesterday id expect.

Sunday doesn't look great either

[SACRUS]

 

Smoke (thickest) visible into SNJ and DE/Mar/VA/C

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

No real heat in sight

Picking right up on that last night's Euro along with today's GFS and CMC are again picking up on upper level low over eastern Canada that will renew the cyclonic flow of northwesterlies in the upper atmosphere for the northeastern U.S. including NYC through most or all of the first half of July. With this unfortunate development if you appreciate the sunny hot inferno typical of mid summer with high temperatures 90+ you probably have to wait until late in July or August. My anticipation after June averaged about 2.0 degrees below normal in NYC is for July to be almost a repeat performance the one caveat being the possibility of above normal night-time low temperatures compensating a little bit. But I'm not seeing any 90+ degree weather for NYC at this point through July 15th and I am seeing a continuation of frequent thunderstorm days, some smoke and haze, marine layers at times, all of which June featured. We're catching sort of a break today with lower humidity levels and a temporary let up in the cyclonic flow or upper low which had sat to our west for days and days but that let up will be over by Sunday.

WX/PT

[Gravity Wave]

20 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Picking right up on that last night's Euro along with today's GFS and CMC are again picking up on upper level low over eastern Canada that will renew the cyclonic flow of northwesterlies in the upper atmosphere for the northeastern U.S. including NYC through most or all of the first half of July. With this unfortunate development if you appreciate the sunny hot inferno typical of mid summer with high temperatures 90+ you probably have to wait until late in July or August. My anticipation after June averaged about 2.0 degrees below normal in NYC is for July to be almost a repeat performance the one caveat being the possibility of above normal night-time low temperatures compensating a little bit. But I'm not seeing any 90+ degree weather for NYC at this point through July 15th and I am seeing a continuation of frequent thunderstorm days, some smoke and haze, marine layers at times, all of which June featured. We're catching sort of a break today with lower humidity levels and a temporary let up in the cyclonic flow or upper low which had sat to our west for days and days but that let up will be over by Sunday.

WX/PT

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

Maybe maybe not. I think we have to wait to see how that unfolds and to see what the second half of July is going to look like. With these kinds of summers we sometimes get some early cool high pressure systems dropping down from Canada. I'm not ruling anything out just saying keep your heat expectations low this summer around here.

WX/PT

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

In my opinion they may.  If July turns out above normal temp wise it would be because of overnight lows and not excessive or persistent above normal daytime highs.

[IrishRob17]

On 6/9/2023 at 10:23 AM, forkyfork said:

i miss the smoke. who wants to come with me to quebec with a bunch of matches 

Congrats

[winterwx21]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

kind of day where you want to open your windows and let fresh air in..

It felt good doing stuff outside this afternoon with the dewpoints in the high 50s. Much more comfortable. 

[doncat]

Smoke looks visible here now agl.

[lee59]

82-65 in the city today, another below normal day. Could June end up below 70 for an average. If so first time since 2009.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

82-65 in the city today, another below normal day. Could June end up below 70 for an average. If so first time since 2009.

Probably right at 70

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. However, temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July.

Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The Desert Southwest will likely see its hottest temperatures so far this year during the weekend into early next week. As has been the case throughout June, extreme heat appears unlikely in the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -0.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.753 today.

On June 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.334 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (2.0° below normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

There were a couple of 90 degree days on the ECMWF for next week on today's run we'll see if they're there tomorrow. The 3rd, 6th, and 7th.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

Coldest months of the 21st century compared to all-time (1869-2023) NYC data with ranks (list includes all below long-term median which is now 78th coldest or ties straddling 78th coldest-warmest in 155 years or 77th warmest-coldest July to Dec): 

Jan 2004 t8 coldest, 2003 25th coldest, 2009 28th, 2014 t34, 2015 t49, 2022 t53, 2000,2005 t66, 2018 71st coldest. 

Feb 2015 3rd coldest, 2007 22nd coldest, 2003 41st, 2014 t57. 2010 77th coldest. 

Mar 2014 t43 coldest, 2015 48th coldest, 2017 t55, 2005 59th, 2001 60th, 2013,2018 t68 coldest. 

Apr 2018 t45 coldest, 2003 t52, 2007 t60, 2020 t63, (2000 t75 median value, see note for July)

May 2003 t12 coldest, 2005 t18, 2008 t40, 2020 t49. 2002 t52, 2017 t63 coldest. 

June 2009 t9 coldest, 2003 19th, at 69.8 June 2023 would be t38, 2006,2012 t73, 2015 t77 (median) 

July 2009 8th coldest (2000 was t4th coldest but some would say 2000 is in the 20th century) 2001 t13, 2004 t32, 2007 t45, 2003 t60. 2021 t70, 2014 t72 coldest.

Aug 2008 t55 coldest (2000 was t28th coldest, see above) 2007,2016 t58, 2004 t64, 2014 t73 coldest. 

Sep 2006 t37 coldest (2000 was t29th coldest, see above) 2001 73rd coldest, 2003,2013 t75 coldest. 

Oct 2009 t34 coldest; 2003, 2008 t36 coldest; 2002 t40 coldest, (2004 t52, 2006 t57, 2022 69th, 2000 70th, 2011 t71st coldest.

Nov 2012, 2019 t31 coldest, 2018 t41st coldest, 2000,2013,2014 t59, 2007 t63, 2008 t74, 2002 t76 coldest (median)

Dec 2010 t35 coldest, 2017 t38 coldest, 2005 64th coldest, 2009 t72nd coldest, 2002 76th coldest (2000 t22 coldest, see note for July).

________________________

Probably the median value of 21st century months is around 50th warmest in the 155-year series, but even so, a healthy number of months have fallen below the overall median (now ranked 78th). On average 5 to 8 months out of 23 or so have been this cold. 

Note that June 2023 will likely be third coldest of the century but at t38 is around the start of the coldest quarter (or the colder half of the cold months). With urban heat island factored in, this was probably about the 28th coldest June. Several months including March, April, August, September, October and December have not had a significantly colder month than this June in relative terms to overall distribution.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

6/29

EWR: 85
New Brnswck: 85
TEB: 85
PHL: 85
BLM: 84
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
NYC: 82
JFK: 82
ACY: 81
ISP: 80

[lee59]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably right at 70

Yeah it doesn't look likely that it will finish below 70

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Tonight's run of the GFS and CMC little if any chance of 90 on Monday, slightly better chance Thursday the 6th or Friday the 7th. I still really believe we're getting to the 15th without any 90's at the Park for July.

WX/PT

 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Tonight's run of the GFS and CMC little if any chance of 90 on Monday, slightly better chance Thursday the 6th or Friday the 7th. I still really believe we're getting to the 15th without any 90's at the Park for July.

WX/PT

 

Looks like a low grade heat wave elsewhere. Mostly 90-92 type stuff though very borderline for now. 

Not seeing a big heat surge for July yet

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Snowlover11]

absolutely disgusting outside.  smoke, hazy, fog.

[CIK62]

The last day of June is averaging    78degs.(69/87) or +3.

Month to date is   69.8[-2.1].      June should end at    70.1[-1.7].

Plenty of signs that the first 2 weeks of July will be +1 to +3.

Reached 82 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  81-86, wind s., variable clouds, 70 tomorrow AM.

70*(85%RH) at 7am.      73* at 9am.    75* at 10am.     80* at Noon.      down to 79* at 1pm.     down to 77* at 3pm.     78* at 4pm.       79* at 6am.       72* at 9pm.