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Stormlover74
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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro really dropped amounts for tomorrow but is pretty wet Friday and for the weekend

One down, more to come. Blocking is too legit to quit. Until the ridge moves far enough east, expect the dry stretch to continue 

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Re discussion of summer better defined as June to August or June 21 to Sept 21, actually June 13 to Sep 13 is the warmest quarter of the year on average. So it is a compromise and slightly closer to astronomical summer than to climatological summer. 

Every year is different of coursre, and 1881 had a very late displacement of its summer into basically July to September. 1964 was probably the most extreme example in the other direction, May was more of a summer feel than August that year. 1965 was almost as early except that July 1965 was a very cool month too, there was almost no summer in 1965. 

I see signs on tonite\s ,model run of Texas anomaly moving towards Kansas and once it gets past KS will be difficult to keep it entirely out of NE states but signs are weak later in model run for it so far. July 5-8 would be most likey arrival time. 

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8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Ridge is kicking our ass! Nothing on radar though to raise hopes right now, albeit Upton remains relatively bullish

So much for tropical dews helping us. Mid levels are bone dry and confluence destroyed everything. There’s another wave later today that might bring us something but if not we need to rely on southerly flow to generate rain here when 95% of the time it just results in scattered storms inland over NJ that die out before they can reach us near the coast. This can easily be a bust setup here with just lots of clouds for days. 

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The next 8 days are averaging    75degs.(67/82) or Normal.

Month to date is    68.9[-1.9].       Should be    70.5[-1.4] by the 30th.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today:    62-66, wind ne., Rain, 65 tomorrow AM.

60*(80%RH) at 7am{was 65 at midnight}.      62* at 9am.       65* at 11am.     68* at 1pm.      Reached 73* at 3pm.      69* at 8pm.

 

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48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So much for tropical dews helping us. Mid levels are bone dry and confluence destroyed everything. There’s another wave later today that might bring us something but if not we need to rely on southerly flow to generate rain here when 95% of the time it just results in scattered storms inland over NJ that die out before they can reach us near the coast. This can easily be a bust setup here with just lots of clouds for days. 

Dews don't arrive until Friday 

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61 / 54 and mostly cloudy ENE wind - raw some drizzle in spots.  Bulk of the steady rain has shifted east and while today is still well below normal, cool and raw it wont nearly be as wet as initially modeled.  The transition from a so Cal marine influenced desert pattern to a Florida style humid / warm and stormy will be completed tomorrow.  6/23 - 6/30 southerly flow - warm, humid and very active showers and storms (some slow moving soakers).  Should manage >2 inches area wide and spots exceed 5 inches where the slow drenchers materialize / inland).  When and where the sun comes out it warms up quickly and if we can manage any duration of sunshine some warm / hotter heat indices. 850s of >16C will keep it warm overall by way of higher low/minimums but some warmer days with sun are possible Thu (6/29).  Rain chances look highest Sat night into Sun (storms) and then again on Mon (6/26).

 

Beyond there into the Holiday weekend warm flow continues should see some of the TX/Southern plains heat bleed east and between transient troughs, as they lift out and the flow goes westerly/N'wrly a much warm - hot progression on a day o two.  The Western Atlantics Ridge or a piece / southeast ridge looks to come back to life in this neck of the woods into the longer range D 10 or so.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Reminds me of last Saturday-upton had rain yet radar and models have close to nothing

Just keeps adding to the drought=drought theory. Although the moisture source for this low is the Atlantic. So this is probably more like a too much confluence situation we see with winter storms. Glad I watered yesterday.

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15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

Good thing one random guy on twitter posted that.  I disagree with him.  September is summer not fall around here, December is fall and rarely winter.  March is more winter than spring.  June I'll agree is more summer than spring though.  

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1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Good thing Brian posted that.  I disagree with him.  September is summer not fall around here, December is fall and rarely winter.  March is more winter than spring.  June I'll agree is more summer than spring though.  

you don't agree with the fact that june is warmer than september in this region?

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