qg_omega Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: No, not technically. No June, July and August are considered the summer months when talking about the meteorological summer season because they are the three warmest months of the year. Astronomical seasons typically fall within these months, but are based on the position of the earth relative to the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No June, July and August are considered the summer months when talking about the meteorological summer season because they are the three warmest months of the year. Astronomical seasons typically fall within these months, but are based on the position of the earth relative to the sun. First few weeks of September over past few decades have been warmer then parts of June I would think. Also technically we have a meteorological seasons and your traditional seasons. So basically your point and @kat5hurricane points are both valid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 34 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: No, not technically. Astronomical seasons line up better around here most of the time than met. seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Just hold that rain off until 11pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Brutal. Looks like another miss for us NAM’s not even a quarter inch for us east of the city and nails E PA/NJ. Thankfully other models including the GFS are much wetter. Euro is also quite wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NAM’s not even a quarter inch for us east of the city and nails E PA/NJ. Thankfully other models including the GFS are much wetter. Euro is also quite wet. having trouble pinpointing where it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Euro not bad with the steady rain tomorrow morning. It gets about a half inch up to our area, with much heavier amounts for central to eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 HP means business. Cloud deck gradually being nudged south, with clearing to my north. Leads me to think that the drier models will end up being right, but we shall see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Euro is a drencher over the next 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro is a drencher over the next 10 days over 10 days thats not alot considering our dry ground 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: over 10 days thats not alot considering our dry ground Given the south flow out of the tropics these amts could be higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 The rain not making it this far north was noted in both Upton and Mt.Hollys AFD's this morning. The more significant rain/storms for the NYC metro are aren't supposed to come in until Thursday night or early Friday. By Friday thru early next week the rain will be more convective so the models will have a hard time pinpointing where the heaviest rains will fall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: Given the south flow out of the tropics these amts could be higher. If we’re relying just on the southerly flow, it would definitely favor inland areas as that’s where convection easily fires away from any marine layer. Where I am and immediate coast we need this system for tomorrow to produce otherwise it will be a bust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we’re relying just on the southerly flow, it would definitely favor inland areas as that’s where convection easily fires away from any marine layer. Where I am and immediate coast we need this system for tomorrow to produce otherwise it will be a bust. Fair point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Anyone claiming bust right now is an idiot. Very convectively charged pattern to develop. Some places will see several inches of rain but not everyone. Still it looks pretty widespread to me. Definitely a summery pattern with much higher dews 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 Nam very sharp cutoff west of the city 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Skies have essentially cleared, just very thin overcast periods. Refreshing east wind. See if things moisten up into the overnight. That’s what she said…… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: No June, July and August are considered the summer months when talking about the meteorological summer season because they are the three warmest months of the year. Astronomical seasons typically fall within these months, but are based on the position of the earth relative to the sun. I'm aware of that but the official start of summer is June 21st unless something has changed that I'm unaware of. Also, there's no way you can sell me on September being a fall month. It can be argued that we get more summer weather in September than June especially in the last few decades. September might be considered meteorological fall but the weather doesn't vibe with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I'm aware of that but the official start of summer is June 21st unless something has changed that I'm unaware of. Also, there's no way you can sell me on September being a fall month. It can be argued that we get more summer weather in September than June especially in the last few decades. September might be considered meteorological fall but the weather doesn't vibe with that. As said before, both "summers" are correct. While the past few years September has shown to be warm, I used to notice that when Labor Day hit, the temperatures would drop noticeably. And from my school days in the 1960s and 70s, I remember sweating in the classroom (and not just because I was not good in math). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Bulk of the moisture offshore to our south appears to be sliding NE further away from the coast. Assume it’s being shunted by the ridging, see if that translates into a drier day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 66 for a high on the first day of summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: 66 for a high on the first day of summer This is like 65-70 on December 21st. Very cool June weather. No signs of any prolonged heat in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 5 hours ago, FPizz said: Astronomical seasons line up better around here most of the time than met. seasons. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Coolest June since 2009. Just not as wet which has hurt the lawns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 2009 was absolutely ghastly, at least it’s been sunny (and dry). 75 today. I was expecting cloudy skies but the sun’s been out all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 31 minutes ago, forkyfork said: Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Overnight and tomorrow will see showers and perhaps thunderstorms. It will be unseasonably cool. Temperatures tomorrow will likely stay below 70° in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The unsettled weather will likely continue into the weekend. Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included: Abilene: 103° Austin: 103° Brownsville: 99° Corpus Christi: 103° (old record: 102°, 2017) Cotulla: 115° (old record: 104°, 2022) Del Rio: 115° (old record: 105°, 1951 and 1996) ***New all-time record*** Houston: 100° (tied record set in 1902 and tied in 1906 and 1998) Junction: 110° (old record: 104°, 1953) Laredo: 112° (old record: 109°, 1996) McAllen: 107° (tied record set in 2017) San Angelo: 114° (old record: 108°, 1934) ***Tied all-time record*** San Antonio: 105° Victoria: 100° Zapata: 113° (old record: 107°, 1998) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was -26.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.179 today. On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.356 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.198 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.5° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, WX-PA said: This is like 65-70 on December 21st. Very cool June weather. No signs of any prolonged heat in sight. More like 55 +/- a degree or two. Average is low 80s so we're about 15 below. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: As said before, both "summers" are correct. While the past few years September has shown to be warm, I used to notice that when Labor Day hit, the temperatures would drop noticeably. And from my school days in the 1960s and 70s, I remember sweating in the classroom (and not just because I was not good in math). Amount of daylight also matters imo, which is why I consider summer June 1 - August 31. Huge decline in daylight Sept 1-21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 i will enjoy tomorrow 60's cool gusty breeze...hoodie weather.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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