April 2023

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

That's partly why our winters have been garbage lately....torch city out there

Hopefully we can get some major hurricane recurves this summer and cool it down. 

[psv88]

57 today. Not terrible. Weekend looks awful 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Does that mean May is likely to be below normal, or possibly cooler than April?

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th.  That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures.

WX/PT

[Rtd208]

It wouldn't surprise me if there are some isolated 5" rainfall amounts over the next few days beginning Friday afternoon. The long duration of the event should mitigate the flooding potential with the exception of urban and poor drainage flooding.

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Miserable stretch coming up.   Cleared out here quickly an hour ago and we're now at 54 so a nice little break.

I love it and the prolonged wet weather is much needed without the flooding risks. 

[Snowlover11]

looks like i’ll get good sleep friday night.  open up the window and listen to the rainfall.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

looks like i’ll get good sleep friday night.  open up the window and listen to the rainfall.

Sleeping in on Saturday morning should be mandatory 

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of April are averaging    52degs.(49/55) or -5.

Month to date is     58.2[+5.1].      April should end at    57.6[+3.9].

Reached 62 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:    54-58, wind se.-breezy, cloudy-rain by 6pm, 47 tomorrow AM.

The first 10 days of May[56, or -5]look as much BN as the last week of April will, -5.     It tries to warm up by the 7th., more likely the 10th.   

 Also May appears better behaved---having warmed up by less than 1 degree in the past 60 years.      April was +2.4 over that period.

51*(87%RH) here at 7am.      53* at 8am.      55* at 10am.      Reached 56* at Noon.      53* at 8am.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Sleeping in on Saturday morning should be mandatory 

Except when people have work 

[uofmiami]

11 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th.  That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures.

WX/PT

 

This isn’t going to get us warmth, that’s for sure. 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

57 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

This isn’t going to get us warmth, that’s for sure. 

 

I totally agree. Now the gfs in it's fantasy time-frames is going to occasionally do what it did last night and heat us up at 300+ hours. But I'm not even close to buying anything like that. In fact with El Nino getting ready to take shape all bets are off on what type of summer is ahead. This pattern would be closer to what we'd want to see in January.

WX/PT 

[Snowlover11]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Sleeping in on Saturday morning should be mandatory 

except when i work grave shift and usually work on weekends.

[SACRUS]

53 and cloudy with rain into EPA and SNJ with arrival in the next few hours.  Into the wet part of this cooler patter.  Block has forced cut lows to undercut trough and bring rain this weekend and early next week.  Pattern persists on most guidance through at least the first 10 days of next month.  hints the upper air pattern migrates and height build back in towards mid month,but overall cooler than normal, and wetter to potentially much wetter the next 10 - 12 days.  Likely no 70s the next week at least.

 

 

[nycwinter]

so cold my hands are freezing outside oh where did i put my gloves..

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Except when people have work 

Or kids...

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

except when i work grave shift and usually work on weekends.

I'm off Friday's and Saturday's and work on Sunday's. 

[MJO812]

53 here

Feels like autumn 

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm off Friday's and Saturday's and work on Sunday's. 

i work wednesday night thru sunday night.  mon-tues off.

[Stormlover74]

Round 2 looks like a quick hit now Sunday afternoon then outta here. Intermittent from tonight thru Sunday morning

[Tatamy]

50 with light rain here.

[Roger Smith]

Looks like you may break a rainfall record on Saturday 29th, it is an easy one to break (0.91" from 1909). The recent 1.51" on the 23rd failed to break that daily record (2.34" 2006). The April 29th record is one of only two daily records all year that are below 1.00" the other one being 0.86" for September 9th (1902). It would be neat if 2023 could eliminate both of them. The third lowest value is 1.02" for June 8th (1900). 

The Sunday record is a lot higher, Apr 30th 2014 had 4.97" of rain. Today's record is 2.74" from 1980. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 90 (2009)
NYC: 90 (2009)
LGA; 89 (2009)

Lows:

EWR: 33 (1934)
NYC: 31 (1874)
LGA: 36 (1947)

 

Historical:

1893: A half-mile wide estimated F4 tornado killed 23 people and injured 150 as it tore a path of devastation through Cisco, Texas. Every building in the town was either destroyed or severely damaged. 

1921 - A severe hailstorm in Anson County, NC, produced hail the size of baseballs. Gardens, grain fields and trees were destroyed. Pine trees in the storm's path had to be cut for lumber because of the hail damage. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A coastal storm produced tremendous late season snows in the Central Appalachians, including 35 inches at Bayard WV, 31 inches at Somerset PA, and 30 inches at Grantsville MD. High winds accompanying the heavy wet snow uprooted trees and unroofed a number of homes. The storm caused great damage to fruit trees and wild life. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1973: The record crest of the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri was registered at 43.23 feet on this day. This level exceeded the previous 1785 mark by 1.23 feet. This record was broken during the 1993 Flood when the Mississippi River crested at 49.58 feet on August 1st. At Memphis, Tennessee, the Mississippi was over flood stage for 63 days, more than that of the historic 1927 flood, and the river was above flood stage for an even longer 107 days at upstream Cairo, Illinois. Out of the seven largest floods on the Mississippi between 1927 and 1997, the 1973 event ranked third in both volume discharged and duration but only sixth in flood height. Over $250 million of damages were incurred mainly in the Mississippi Valley states of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

1987 - Twenty cities in the western and central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 95 degrees at Houston TX, 95 degrees at Lake Charles LA, and 94 degrees at Port Arthur TX, were April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Miami, FL, hit 92 degrees, marking a record eight days of 90 degree heat in the month of April. Squalls produced snow in the Washington D.C. area. Belvoir VA reported a temperature reading of 57 degrees at the time the snow began. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong northerly winds and heavy snow ushered cold air into the north central U.S. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 20 inches at Miles City. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas to the Southern Appalachians and the southern Ohio Valley. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Keller TX and White Settlement TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. during the day. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Inman SC. There were also more than one hundred reports of large hail and damaging winds, with better than half of those reports in Georgia. Strong thunderstorm winds injured four people at Sadler's Creek SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Twenty-nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Highs of 88 degrees at Binghamton NY, 94 degrees at Buffalo NY, 89 degrees at Erie PA, 90 degrees at Newark NJ, 93 degrees at Rochester NY and 92 degrees at Syracuse NY, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1991: Memphis, Tennessee recorded their wettest April ever with 15.03 inches, breaking their previous record of 13.90 inches in 1872.

 

2002: During the evening hours, a violent F4 tornado carved a 64-mile path across southeast Maryland. The La Plata, Maryland tornado was part of a larger severe weather outbreak that began in the mid-Mississippi Valley early on that day and spread across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States. In Maryland, three deaths and 122 injuries were a direct result of the storm. Property damage exceeded $100 million. Tornadoes along the Atlantic coast are not frequent, and tornadoes of this magnitude are extremely rare. Only six F4 tornadoes have occurred farther north and east of the La Plata storm: Worchester, Massachusetts - 1953; New York/Massachusetts - 1973; Windsor Locks, Connecticut - 1979; five counties in New York - 1989; New Haven, Connecticut - 1989; North Egremont, Massachusetts - 1995. None was as close to the coast. The tornado traveled across the Chesapeake Bay almost to the Atlantic. 

[Snowlover11]

sucks having uptons radar down

[Rmine1]

What happened to the “inches” of rain? Blocking doing a number on the precip shield 

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, Richmond received 1.76" rainfall. That broke the daily record of 1.34" from 1923. At 5:45 pm, heavy rain was falling in Philadelphia.

That rain will overspread the region this evening. A soaking rain is likely tonight into tomorrow. Much of the region will see a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain with locally higher amounts. Another moderate to significant rainfall is likely Sunday into Monday.

A cool pattern remains in place. That pattern will likely continue through the opening week of May. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May. Nevertheless, there are some hints that warmth could begin to return to the East while cooler weather returns to the West, as has been the case through most of the winter and spring so far.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -0.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.064 today.

On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.846 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.000 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (4.1° above normal). That would be the second warmest April on record.

 

[Allsnow]

Rain fail? 

[SRRTA22]

1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

What happened to the “inches” of rain? Blocking doing a number on the precip shield 

We weren't supposed to get heavy rain tonight. Mainly drizzle and light rain. Most short term models forecasted less than 0.25" for tonight.

I can see the intensity picking up and becoming more widespread around daybreak , and tapering off towards the afternoon.

Our "main event" is Sunday into Monday AM 

 

 

[Dark Star]

28 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

We weren't supposed to get heavy rain tonight. Mainly drizzle and light rain. Most short term models forecasted less than 0.25" for tonight.

I can see the intensity picking up and becoming more widespread around daybreak , and tapering off towards the afternoon.

Our "main event" is Sunday into Monday AM 

 

 

Must be a lot of dry air, radar has had precip over us most of the day?

[Rmine1]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rain fail? 

Looks like it. 

[Rmine1]

44 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

We weren't supposed to get heavy rain tonight. Mainly drizzle and light rain. Most short term models forecasted less than 0.25" for tonight.

I can see the intensity picking up and becoming more widespread around daybreak , and tapering off towards the afternoon.

Our "main event" is Sunday into Monday AM 

 

 

Well the “main event” appears to be going the opposite direction