jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Yes that would be great. Better than writing off anything 15 miles north and west of the city. If you’re in the valley locations near the Tappan Zee etc you probably want the more NAM like outcome with the earlier phase and consolidated low because the other models that develop the low later don’t get the dynamics going, and it may snow moderately but be hard to stick especially during the day. But there’ll probably be several inches in Rockland, Westchester etc. If you’re elevated more than a few hundred feet or so 6” is much more likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Newman said: 3k Nam is a Northern Jersey bomb 1/24/16…put up a 30” spot at my house. Almost rivaled ‘96 in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Damn, I'm right under that NAM bomb, and points just to the east and north of me. Even half that would be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If you’re in the valley locations near the Tappan Zee etc you probably want the more NAM like outcome with the earlier phase and consolidated low because the other models that develop the low later don’t get the dynamics going, and it may snow moderately but be hard to stick especially during the day. But there’ll probably be several inches in Rockland, Westchester etc. If you’re elevated more than a few hundred feet or so 6” is much more likely. I’m in Highland Mills in Orange County. 600 feet elevation, about 8 miles northwest of the Bear mountain bridge. I’ve seen every accumulation possible on maps the last 2 days from 4 inches to 34. I take nothing for granted for this storm. Still keeping my mind open to any outcome. Probably 8-12 is a reasonable expectation atm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The fact that Rockland county has no advisory or watch up is insane to me. I get that the forecast there is very much up in the air… but the GFS has a solid 6”+ event, and the EURO / NAM both dump over a foot… no watch to warn people!? That’s ridiculous. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Fair warning, I am flying into NJ and staying in Northern NJ tomorrow. I am sure to make the snow not show up, so when it doesn't, it's my fault. I will take the blame for this one. That said, comparing the GFS to the EURO (just ignoring the NAM) I think a 50/50 blend of the GFS and EURO is probably safe and that essentially ends up being the EPS. Honestly I am pulling for the NAM but it's like the drunk Uncle at Thanksgiving. Fun to listen to but what he's saying is complete garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 so basically the nam vs the world. yikes i would of liked the rgem/icon and or gfs to show something, even if the slightest “trend” towards a nam solution. Lets be realistic though the nam was insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: so basically the nam vs the world. yikes i would of liked the rgem/icon and or gfs to show something, even if the slightest “trend” towards a nam solution. Lets be realistic though the nam was insane. The GFS has shown some ticks in the right direction. NAM is just crazy but the UKMET and EURO do still show some good totals. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: The GFS has shown some ticks in the right direction. NAM is just crazy but the UKMET and EURO do still show some good totals. They did. Let's see what 12z shows. If they back off we know the nam is definitely wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours. Noone will be shocked by that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, jayyy said: The fact that Rockland county has no advisory or watch up is insane to me. I get that the forecast there is very much up in the air… but the GFS has a solid 6”+ event, and the EURO / NAM both dump over a foot… no watch to warn people!? That’s ridiculous. . There will very likely be advisories or watches in the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Noone will be shocked by that Until the GFS and Euro show a consensus on something even remotely similar it’s just model porn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GEFS looks pretty good 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: There will very likely be advisories or watches in the afternoon package. The window for a watch is closing and confidence of greater than 6” is less than 60% required South of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Yeah, I wouldn't bet on NAM but would I bet on any of the others? Not really. There's still lots of uncertainty. These models are not as good as they should be. If I were at this point with the NGM and ETA I'd feel better. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Yeah, I wouldn't bet on NAM but would I bet on any of the others? Not really. There's still lots of uncertainty. These models are not as good as they should be. If I were at this point with the NGM and ETA I'd feel better. WX/PT The only consistent model to a degree has been the rgem. And I've noticed that model doesn't cave often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 UKMET looked pretty good, about the same as last night. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours. I don't even think it is going to have to wait until tomorrow morning. More like 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 This may be another case of "careful what we wish for". If the best (worst?) case plays out, with heavy rains early, high winds, and marginal temps, isn't the potential there for significant damage and power loss, from the weight of wet snow on trees, power lines, roofs, etc? Especially in the northern part of the subforum. Even 8-10" could be consequential.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: Fair warning, I am flying into NJ and staying in Northern NJ tomorrow. I am sure to make the snow not show up, so when it doesn't, it's my fault. I will take the blame for this one. That said, comparing the GFS to the EURO (just ignoring the NAM) I think a 50/50 blend of the GFS and EURO is probably safe and that essentially ends up being the EPS. Honestly I am pulling for the NAM but it's like the drunk Uncle at Thanksgiving. Fun to listen to but what he's saying is complete garbage. I like this solution too and it goes along with my thinking of 3-5 for NYC and Long Island and up to a foot inland (including my place in the Poconos.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Correct Jean-Luc. Love your wine. Sorry Shaw didn't take to it. Happy to hear about your son Jack. I am worried about outages too and wary of too much cement snow . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The window for a watch is closing and confidence of greater than 6” is less than 60% required South of 84. That’s why I mentioned advisories. There’s still uncertainty where the 6” line will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: UKMET looked pretty good, about the same as last night. Not quite as good as last night. It cut back on snow amounts quite a bit. But it's still decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: From the looks of that the biggest area of uncertainty is south of 287…. North of 287 looks like maybe where the 6” line resides. Just my thoughts anybody can rely their thoughts as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I hope no one in NYC is expecting 10:1 snowfall amounts because you will be lucky to get 7:1 if it even snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not quite as good as last night. It cut back on snow amounts quite a bit. But it's still decent. The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours. The NAM doesn't have a wheelhouse. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there Yeah we all know your thoughts and at this point it’s quite nauseating because your focus is so driven on the same models for every storm. Have you used your 5 posts for the day yet. The only thing your right on is major 12+ north of 84. However between 287 and 84 there most certainly could be at least a 3-6+ storm! 2 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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