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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yes that would be great. Better than writing off anything 15 miles north and west of the city. 

If you’re in the valley locations near the Tappan Zee etc you probably want the more NAM like outcome with the earlier phase and consolidated low because the other models that develop the low later don’t get the dynamics going, and it may snow moderately but be hard to stick especially during the day.  But there’ll probably be several inches in Rockland, Westchester etc. If you’re elevated more than a few hundred feet or so 6” is much more likely. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If you’re in the valley locations near the Tappan Zee etc you probably want the more NAM like outcome with the earlier phase and consolidated low because the other models that develop the low later don’t get the dynamics going, and it may snow moderately but be hard to stick especially during the day.  But there’ll probably be several inches in Rockland, Westchester etc. If you’re elevated more than a few hundred feet or so 6” is much more likely. 

I’m in Highland Mills in Orange County. 600 feet elevation, about 8 miles northwest of the Bear mountain bridge.

I’ve seen every accumulation possible on maps the last 2 days from 4 inches to 34. I take nothing for granted for this storm. Still keeping my mind open to any outcome. Probably 8-12 is a reasonable expectation atm. 

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The fact that Rockland county has no advisory or watch up is insane to me. I get that the forecast there is very much up in the air… but the GFS has a solid 6”+ event, and the EURO / NAM both dump over a foot… no watch to warn people!? That’s ridiculous.


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Fair warning, I am flying into NJ and staying in Northern NJ tomorrow.  I am sure to make the snow not show up, so when it doesn't, it's my fault.  I will take the blame for this one.  That said, comparing the GFS to the EURO (just ignoring the NAM) I think a 50/50 blend of the GFS and EURO is probably safe and that essentially ends up being the EPS.  Honestly I am pulling for the NAM but it's like the drunk Uncle at Thanksgiving.  Fun to listen to but what he's saying is complete garbage.

NJ_EPS1.png

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1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

so basically the nam vs the world.  yikes i would of liked the rgem/icon and or gfs to show something, even if the slightest “trend” towards a nam solution. Lets be realistic though the nam was insane.

The GFS has shown some ticks in the right direction. NAM is just crazy but the UKMET and EURO do still show some good totals. 

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17 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The fact that Rockland county has no advisory or watch up is insane to me. I get that the forecast there is very much up in the air… but the GFS has a solid 6”+ event, and the EURO / NAM both dump over a foot… no watch to warn people!? That’s ridiculous.


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There will very likely be advisories or watches in the afternoon package.

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Yeah, I wouldn't bet on NAM but would I bet on any of the others? Not really. There's still lots of uncertainty. These models are not as good as they should be. If I were at this point with the NGM and ETA  I'd feel better.

WX/PT

The only consistent model to a degree has been the rgem. And I've noticed that model doesn't cave often 

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours.

I don't even think it is going to have to wait until tomorrow morning.  More like 18Z. 

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This may be another case of "careful what we wish for".  If the best (worst?) case plays out, with heavy rains early, high winds, and marginal temps, isn't the potential there for significant damage and power loss, from the weight of wet snow on trees, power lines, roofs, etc?  Especially in the northern part of the subforum.  Even 8-10" could be consequential.

giphy.gif


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34 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Fair warning, I am flying into NJ and staying in Northern NJ tomorrow.  I am sure to make the snow not show up, so when it doesn't, it's my fault.  I will take the blame for this one.  That said, comparing the GFS to the EURO (just ignoring the NAM) I think a 50/50 blend of the GFS and EURO is probably safe and that essentially ends up being the EPS.  Honestly I am pulling for the NAM but it's like the drunk Uncle at Thanksgiving.  Fun to listen to but what he's saying is complete garbage.

NJ_EPS1.png

I like this solution too and it goes along with my thinking of 3-5 for NYC and Long Island and up to a foot inland (including my place in the Poconos.)

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Not quite as good as last night. It cut back on snow amounts quite a bit.  But it's still decent. 

The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there
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41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours.

The NAM doesn't have a wheelhouse.

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of there

Yeah we all know your thoughts and at this point it’s quite nauseating because your focus is so driven on the same models for every storm. Have you used your 5 posts for the day yet. The only thing your right on is major 12+ north of 84. However between 287 and 84 there most certainly could be at least a 3-6+ storm!

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