Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What was the set up last January? I don’t remember all the details. 1/29/22 got me for 16 inches at 22f at the time of snowfall. I’m about 15 miles inland from the south / central NJ coast at home at about 70 ft asl. 

Last January actually had appreciable cold and I snowed with a few different events culminating in the big show the 29th. Definitely my best storm since Jan 2018. 

The big ACY storm missed to my south or it would’ve been an outstanding Jan, but the theme was available cold and the ability to combine that with waves. It felt very counter to the theme lately and I hold onto it for that reason. 

The Delmarva did pretty well too I thought, yes? What worked last Jan? 

Asking genuinely. 

compday.Knh2O76W28.gif.b9e30e1cc7fe14e4a2a3029919f33fd5.gif

Again rare combo... poleward EPO ridge in combination with a PNA ridge and a displaced TPV.  But even with all that...it was not a snowy winter.  Look at a snowfall anomaly map for last winter, it was below avg snowfall over 75% of the east and mid atlantic.  A few locations got lucky with some of the progressive waves but the majority had a below avg snowfall year.  And yea the pattern only lasted one month but part of that is because its a rare pattern, and part is our snow comes in chunks...sometimes one month has to be it and be epic and get it done.  But that pattern while better than this winter of course...is not usually how we are going to get a big snow season.  Its a rare combo AND its not even usually a good way to get systems to amplify along the east coast.  Basically we got about as lucky as we ever will in that type pattern and it still was only good enough to give us a below avg snowfall year in most places.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You still like something around the 20th or are we done here until our mid-April headfake?

I like just before and after that date.  The timing of the waves is coming into better clarity.  There will be a wave around the 17th that I think has a chance regardless of what the op runs are showing right now.  And I think there might be a wave after the 20th but we are getting really late by then.  I am not overly influenced by op runs beyond 150 hours.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/8/2023 at 3:37 PM, paulythegun said:

Next winter, there should be a standing, pinned thread titled "Days 15-20 Look Like the Best Window for DC Snow." 

I think part of what's going on is this idea that we can outforecast the models.  Looking for potential is one thing...wishcasting (which was prevalent for several days in this thread) is...well, it's wishcasting lol.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I keep warning people that a nino alone might not alleviate that problem 

That's why despite that I'm still rooting for a legit niño next season...For me, getting one is gonna determine everything for years to come. If what has been our best enso state can't do it, nothing can, unfortunately. And in that case I'm gonna step back from this a bit. I mean it makes me sad it may be our future, but as I said in the other thread, gotta believe that we'll get used to it eventually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's why despite that I'm still rooting for a legit niño next season...For me, getting one is gonna determine everything for years to come. If what has been our best enso state can't do it, nothing can, unfortunately. And in that case I'm gonna step back from this a bit. I mean it makes me sad it may be our future, but as I said in the other thread, gotta believe that we'll get used to it eventually.

Hadley Cell's are just really expanding north right now. I'd expect an active Atlantic Hurricane season if El Nino conditions don't develop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
  • 2 weeks later...

Just a monster -PNA on 12z GFS ensembles right now through Easter and beyond. 

Next Winter El Nino and -QBO likely gives us some Stratosphere warmings(high correlations), but I wonder if the -NAO will kryptonite again like this Winter. It may do good with a El Nino-connected+PNA temporarily, but I think in the bigger picture it is going to even out as a generally unfavorable pattern (I'm talking about Hadley Cell expansion). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...