CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Is it me, or have the models been absolute trash this year? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: Seriously would be less embarrassing getting busted surfing midget porn verses having to explain 10,000 weather board posts. Weather models, torture for those to poor to hire a dominatrix. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 58 minutes ago, Cary67 said: I think Alek is right. We may be transitioning to more of a central IL/St. Louis winter climo. The events become more marginal temp wise in nature,with more thread the needle set ups, and increasingly narrow windows of winter like weather. Over the last few years what's amazing is DTW's knack to cash in on whatever meager opportunities present themselves. The UP and MSP benefit in not on increasing temps but increasing moisture as winter retreats northward DTW may suck when it comes to reeling in the big dogs, but it always manages to score somehow with the mediocre / run-of-the-mill snow events better than most in the midwest. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: Where’s the Russian model when we need it Sanctioned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: I think Alek is right. We may be transitioning to more of a central IL/St. Louis winter climo. The events become more marginal temp wise in nature,with more thread the needle set ups, and increasingly narrow windows of winter like weather. Over the last few years what's amazing is DTW's knack to cash in on whatever meager opportunities present themselves. The UP and MSP benefit in not on increasing temps but increasing moisture as winter retreats northward The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Since we're all a bit jaded with the models... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, buckeye said: It's gonna be hell for @michsnowfreak as they transition to CMH climo OTOH I'm looking forward to Nashville climo setting in here . Btw, I admit I'm jel over whomever gets the 6 hr thumping the models seem to be throwing out there, strictly because I like extreme snowfall rates. But I'm only jel of that window of time. Other than that you can keep the 40s and slop fest following the thump. No worries. Because because I'm not transitioning to a CMH climate. Lmao Detroit literally just had their snowiest decade on record in the 2010s. I do not go off the deep end because of one lousy Winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just sent an AFD update. Basically, it's hard to say we'll be 80% confident in warning snow amounts/impacts anywhere in the CWA. Assuming the NAMs are too far NW, general idea is southeast of I-55, *if* the banding is intense enough for dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal BL. Throw convection into the mix and the fact that we're basically trying to precisely place a mesoscale feature (response to f-gen circulation) and say we're confident the dynamic cooling will be enough, it's a tough call. Even with the GFS, we're talking pretty high end impacts for the populous south suburbs, Kankakee county, and NW Indiana corridor. But the Canadians (not that they're great models) have me concerned and getting vibes of the Christmas Eve 2014 bust. If the GFS is right, that's a similar look to what happened on 2/24/16. And again, there's error bars on the exact placement of banding northwest of the compact vertically stacked low. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. Feb 14-16, 2021 had the storm start off snowing with temps below zero. Marginal my ass. But recency bias always prevails around here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Just sent an AFD update. Basically, it's hard to say we'll be 80% confident in warning snow amounts/impacts anywhere in the CWA. Assuming the NAMs are too far NW, general idea is southeast of I-55, *if* the banding is intense enough for dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal BL. Throw convection into the mix and the fact that we're basically trying to precisely place a mesoscale feature (response to f-gen circulation) and say we're confident the dynamic cooling will be enough, it's a tough call. Even with the GFS, we're talking pretty high end impacts for the populous south suburbs, Kankakee county, and NW Indiana corridor. But the Canadians (not that they're great models) have me concerned and getting vibes of the Christmas Eve 2014 bust. If the GFS is right, that's a similar look to what happened on 2/24/16. And again, there's error bars on the exact placement of banding northwest of the compact vertically stacked low. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Good luck. We’re all counting on you. Still no idea what to expect here. Truly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Just sent an AFD update. Basically, it's hard to say we'll be 80% confident in warning snow amounts/impacts anywhere in the CWA. Assuming the NAMs are too far NW, general idea is southeast of I-55, *if* the banding is intense enough for dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal BL. Throw convection into the mix and the fact that we're basically trying to precisely place a mesoscale feature (response to f-gen circulation) and say we're confident the dynamic cooling will be enough, it's a tough call. Even with the GFS, we're talking pretty high end impacts for the populous south suburbs, Kankakee county, and NW Indiana corridor. But the Canadians (not that they're great models) have me concerned and getting vibes of the Christmas Eve 2014 bust. If the GFS is right, that's a similar look to what happened on 2/24/16. And again, there's error bars on the exact placement of banding northwest of the compact vertically stacked low. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk "We`ll see if the ECMWF suite rolling out around the top of the hour can help bring some clarity" Narrator Voice: "It did not." 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Baum said: memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. Those are the best busts!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: Those are the best busts!! Which is why the Lions/Eagles Snow Bowl in 2013 is perhaps my favorite Football game ever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 good luck to folks south and east of here enjoy !!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. I think what he's saying is that; lately it feels a lot of the storms we've been seeing are marginal, at best. Yes sure Feb 2021 had impressive snow depths and a 2-week cold shot, but it was an incredibly warm winter outside of those few weeks. Ironically it came after another warm winter (19-20). And now obviously 2022-23 is warm too. Thats 3 in the last 4 years. If this trend continues towards a shift of warmer winters, we may start seeing more marginal scenarios or even worse (rain). And that's what we seem to be seeing with this storm and many others this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Baum said: memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. March 8th 1998? One of my favorite storms of all time. Went to bed with no snow, woke up with cement plastered everywhere. Was quite a sight and a lot of fun to play in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 post 12Z model update: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Could this finally be the one where DTW sees over 12" its been a minute... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Whoever is underneath that heaviest banding is going to see wild conditions for a couple hours. Too bad this storm is moving so quickly. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Baum said: post 12Z model update: Glad you're still with me <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I was hoping for a 977 low to cut a little more than this does. Oh well, looks like congrats Ann Arbor and Detroit is in order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: I was hoping for a 977 low to cut a little more than this does. Oh well, looks like congrats Ann Arbor and Detroit is in order. The nao block is saving us from another Rainer. This will be the second 6+ storm winter, and both look to have some of the best rates this area will ever see. Odd winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, Baum said: memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. 10 minutes ago, King James said: March 8th 1998? One of my favorite storms of all time. Went to bed with no snow, woke up with cement plastered everywhere. Was quite a sight and a lot of fun to play in Yeah. March 1998. Lightning and thunder and all of it with that storm. You can read the AFD and forecast on the Iowa State site from that storm. Positive bust indeed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. Definitely not arguing that it was a prolific Feb. in that ORD to DTW corridor. Again that corridor benefitted from some systems(one in particular) whose track not too dissimilar to the current one. Those snow amts and depths in the loop were aided by LES and pts just NW up through Madison were way below normal last year. I guess unless Decembers make a come back I think you've been fortunate to rely on February or March's to make up the gap. It's happened in your area but as this year showed Feb didn't bail you out. Just wonder in the long run if Decembers stay in the crapper and if the durations of cold air are less frequent how long does that run for DTW hold on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I think what he's saying is that; lately it feels a lot of the storms we've been seeing are marginal, at best. Yes sure Feb 2021 had impressive snow depths and a 2-week cold shot, but it was an incredibly warm winter outside of those few weeks. Ironically it came after another warm winter (19-20). And now obviously 2022-23 is warm too. Thats 3 in the last 4 years. If this trend continues towards a shift of warmer winters, we may start seeing more marginal scenarios or even worse (rain). And that's what we seem to be seeing with this storm and many others this winter. 2020-21 was not a very mild Winter here at all. Even in the mild Winters the past decade we've had some good cold storms. There's just been a lot of bad luck this year. Hell, even we all had an extremely cold snow fall in December this year. But sorry, it's absolutely ridiculous to say DTW will become the new CMH. Even if our Winters magically warmed 4 degrees, We are surrounded by the Great Lakes which Columbus is not. I mean climate change is real but the way one mild Winter with subpar snow jades people is really over the top. Dtw temp departures last 10 winters 2022-23: +5.0 2021-22: -0.4 2020-21: +0.3 2019-20: +4.2 2018-19: +0.5 2017-18: -1.1 2016-17: +4.5 2015-16: +5.1 2014-15: -5.1 2013-14: -7.5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Definitely not arguing that it was a prolific Feb. in that ORD to DTW corridor. Again that corridor benefitted from some systems(one in particular) whose track not too dissimilar to the current one. Those snow amts and depths in the loop were aided by LES and pts just NW up through Madison were way below normal last year. I guess unless Decembers make a come back I think you've been fortunate to rely on February or March's to make up the gap. It's happened in your area but as this year showed Feb didn't bail you out. Just wonder in the long run if Decembers stay in the crapper and if the durations of cold air are less frequent how long does that run for DTW hold on? I'm telling you, don't let a mild Winter jade you so much. The stretch of sub par Decembers and Snowy Februaries are more than likely an unusual coincidence. After all, the region has seen an unusual number of early and late snowfalls in recent years as well. Chicago had a white Halloween a few years ago and Detroit had a white Mother's Day a few years ago. Also, days with snow on the ground has shown no longterm decrease. We can continue the conversation in PM if you'd like, but i don't want to derail this storm thread 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Glad you're still with me <3 As long as that band is modeled within 50-100 miles,esp SE, I refuse to bail. Way too many times seen those LP's coming up like that pull NW or throw moisture further back than modeled. Prepared to go down with the ship, as they say. It's not all models, to me. Climo and history play a part as well. Suspect the NAM will cave southeast as well here soon. But until I see the whites of it's eyes on radar presentation tommorow morning going to have stay the course. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Baum said: As long as that band is modeled within 50-100 miles,esp SE, I refuse to bail. Way too many times seen those LP's coming up like that pull NW or throw moisture further back than modeled. Prepared to go down with the ship, as they say. It's not all models, to me. Climo and history play a part as well. Suspect the NAM will cave southeast as well here soon. But until I see the whites of it's eyes on radar presentation tommorow morning going to have stay the course. That's where I am too, albeit off of much less experience. The models aren't even weakening the low, it's just moving farther SE anyway. IIRC RC explained days ago how aspects of this setup could lend themselves to that occuring but the wiener in me won't back off. Odds are this really will be the last shot of the year that gets to this range at all so might as well give it the old college try. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Sorry to say for the Chicago crew, but I'm stealing this one. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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