Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

8 or 9 to 1 sugar there. 

Next time stamp is much better and then it's all hell after that

[Chris12WX]

NWS had me for 10”. Put me firmly in the “I’ll believe it when I see it camp.”

not saying its wrong, just saying it based on this winter.

[CoastalWx]

NAM looks like it cooled a bit from 18z.

[powderfreak]

18z HRRR had MVL ASOS with 0.53" QPF in 2-hours around 5-6am (0.27" and 0.26" hourly).  I'll believe that when I see it.

[wx2fish]

Nam juiced up the thump a bit in SNH 

[klw]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

18z HRRR had MVL ASOS with 0.53" QPF in 2-hours around 5-6am (0.27" and 0.26" hourly).  I'll believe that when I see it.

Do you plan on driving out to the airport at sunrise to see it verify?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z HRRR had MVL ASOS with 0.53" QPF in 2-hours around 5-6am (0.27" and 0.26" hourly).  I'll believe that when I see it.

Mid levels go wild. 

[weathafella]

NAM h7 is just a bit too far north for a really good show here-wouldn’t take much of a shift.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, klw said:

Do you plan on driving out to the airport at sunrise to see it verify?

I'll be making a right out of the driveway and heading to the mountain around that time, ha.  Not turning left, that's for sure

[CoastalWx]

Pope crushed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM h7 is just a bit too far north for a really good show here-wouldn’t take much of a shift.

That is the conclusion I ultimately came too.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is trending quite a bit better with the thump. Esp pike region into NH border area. 

[wx2fish]

12km went pretty wild for SNH, 3km more tame though 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

12km went pretty wild for SNH, 3km more tame though 

Both were trying to hit your area down to metrowest harder with CCB tomorrow. I’m Still not biting on that but it’s gotten more interesting today. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would love to know what model the Wunderground app is mostly based on for their app snowfall algorithm.  Has me at 8-12 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow.    GFS ?

[BostonWX]

Pivotal NAM clown with 6-6.5 at BOS

[tavwtby]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

8 or 9 to 1 sugar there. 

I've always struggled trying to decipher soundings, don't we want the dgz to be around the 700mb level for best snow growth? and does the temp line go up to the right or left? tia for the lesson

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would love to know what model the Wunderground app is mostly based on for their app snowfall algorithm.  Has me at 8-12 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow.    GFS ?

I've been wondering same... had me with about 10" leading up to yesterday where it began dropping now at 5".

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would love to know what model the Wunderground app is mostly based on for their app snowfall algorithm.  Has me at 8-12 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow.    GFS ?

KFS with nested grid...malt and barely initialization scheme upgrade.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I've always struggled trying to decipher soundings, don't we want the dgz to be around the 700mb level for best snow growth? and does the temp line go up to the right or left? tia for the lesson

You want the best lift to line up with the snow growth zone (and be saturated). So on Paul’s sounding you see these bars sticking out horizontally from the left, those are omega bar which denote lift in the atmosphere….we want those to be at the same level as the SGZ but they were below the SGZ which means you’ll get crappier flakes. It does improve the next hour (as he showed in a later post). 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You want the best lift to line up with the snow growth zone (and be saturated). So on Paul’s sounding you see these bars sticking out horizontally from the left, those are omega bar which denote lift in the atmosphere….we want those to be at the same level as the SGZ but they were below the SGZ which means you’ll get crappier flakes. It does improve the next hour (as he showed in a later post). 

No bueno with it being at 500mb

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You want the best lift to line up with the snow growth zone (and be saturated). So on Paul’s sounding you see these bars sticking out horizontally from the left, those are omega bar which denote lift in the atmosphere….we want those to be at the same level as the SGZ but they were below the SGZ which means you’ll get crappier flakes. It does improve the next hour (as he showed in a later post). 

As an addendum, we usually assume that max lift occurs at 700 mb, which is why we suggest we want the DGZ around that level. 

Of course max lift can occur at many levels, so as long as it bisects the DGZ it can snow heavily. There is just a lot more that can happen to a flake the longer it falls (evaporation, fracturing, riming, etc).

[moneypitmike]

Happy to be in box’s 6-8 range.  

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No bueno with it being at 500mb

Par for the course with these thumps except sometimes on the leading edge or if it’s an exceptionally cold SWFE.

[subdude]

Looks like things are starting to ramp up for some folks with these initial thumps. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Par for the course with these thumps except sometimes on the leading edge or if it’s an exceptionally cold SWFE.

puking sand

[40/70 Benchmark]

What a gradient on BOX map lol

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What a gradient on BOX map lol

No kidding. Congrats on your 8+

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

BOS wetbulb is 36

Any idea what BDL is?

[ineedsnow]

still worried about a mix with sleet here