EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Good news for those that were fearing "getting pushed back". The good look on the GEFs and GEPS have moved UP. Looks good starting March 8. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Good news for those that were fearing "getting pushed back". The good look on the GEFs and GEPS have moved UP. Looks good starting March 8. Let’s go!!! I’m all in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Let’s go!!! I’m all in Prepare to be disappointed 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Prepare to be disappointed Ideally I would want 70 degree weather but that isn’t happening this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ideally I would want 70 degree weather but that isn’t happening this March. Same here. Instead I think it'll be annoyingly chilly and dry. Luckily the sun is getting higher and higher but I see a lot of murky, colder days with possibly more below freezing mornings than most of Jan & Feb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Let’s go!!! I’m all in Yeah last night was nice, but we need a REAL snowstorm. I like the look for the 2nd week of March. Hopefully it will deliver. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ideally I would want 70 degree weather but that isn’t happening this March. I doubt it, but we can hope for beautiful 70 degree weather late in the month. But give me snow in early to mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah last night was nice, but we need a REAL snowstorm. I like the look for the 2nd week of March. Hopefully it will deliver. Hard to get a real snowstorm (all snow, temps below freezing) in the immediate metro in March but hopefully we can get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Best to keep expectations tempered for this reason 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The 12Z EPS is by a good margin the coldest run yet for much of the E US! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Best to keep expectations tempered for this reason Ensemble runs are smoothed out so there's likely to be colder days mixed in. So I think there's enough cold around but I don't see favorable storm tracks with the widespread CONUS cold. You need gradients for storms. This screams cold/dry to me. I assume most don't just want a cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Ensemble runs are smoothed out so there's likely to be colder days mixed in. So I think there's enough cold around but I don't see favorable storm tracks with the widespread CONUS cold. You need gradients for storms. This screams cold/dry to me. I assume most don't just want a cold March.The thing is, people are looking at those maps and saying “oh my God it’s going to be -8 below normal!” But that’s -8 below normal for a normal high on March 12th, which is cold by 3/12 standards but we’re not talking 20’s for highs lol You have to temper expectations based on climo, we will be approaching mid-March at that point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The thing is, people are looking at those maps and saying “oh my God it’s going to be -8 below normal!” But that’s -8 below normal for a normal high on March 12th, which is cold by 3/12 standards but we’re not talking 20’s for highs lol You have to temper expectations based on climo, we will be approaching mid-March at that point When an ensemble run's mean of dozens of members shows 8 BN for a period of a week or so, that implies that individual members for their respective coldest individual days will be much colder than 8 BN. There'd likely to be many cases of 20 or more BN on certain days for certain members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The thing is, people are looking at those maps and saying “oh my God it’s going to be -8 below normal!” But that’s -8 below normal for a normal high on March 12th, which is cold by 3/12 standards but we’re not talking 20’s for highs lol You have to temper expectations based on climo, we will be approaching mid-March at that point Yes but we're also in that weird transitional phase where it can be in the 40s to 50 during the day and in the 20s with snow the next. If there's cold air to tap into then it will snow and based on those charts there will be a lot of cold around. My problem is there won't be storms around that can tap into the cold. But yes climo matters especially after mid March. You need anomalous cold + favorable storm track to get a significant snow event by then. There's only a handful of storms in our history that managed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 54 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Best to keep expectations tempered for this reason What reason ? Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 No snow during the hourly readings at the warmest time of the day 200 miles south of here, check. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Best to keep expectations tempered for this reason Yeah not good for DC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 my local forecast calling for sleet sleet and more sleet on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah not good for DC. A map that averages 51 members with 8 BN way out at hour 300 is a very strong BN signal and means a lot more than merely taking a day's climo average and subtracting 8 degrees. Thus, I think Michael Muccilli is looking at this the wrong way. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Very noteworthy signal on the EPS for next weekend: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It can definitely snow here if we get into a good pattern that can produce storms on a good track and we have cold air (even March standard) in place. We don’t have to look back far to see some prolific ones. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Let’s go!!! I’m all in I thought you were Nosnow this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It can definitely snow here if we get into a good pattern that can produce storms on a good track and we have cold air (even March standard) in place. We don’t have to look back far to see some prolific ones. I would bet against anything historic though 6-8 inch storms are just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes but we're also in that weird transitional phase where it can be in the 40s to 50 during the day and in the 20s with snow the next. If there's cold air to tap into then it will snow and based on those charts there will be a lot of cold around. My problem is there won't be storms around that can tap into the cold. But yes climo matters especially after mid March. You need anomalous cold + favorable storm track to get a significant snow event by then. There's only a handful of storms in our history that managed that. If you lower your expectations to 4 inch to 6 inch storms there's plenty of examples between mid March and mid April 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Same here. Instead I think it'll be annoyingly chilly and dry. Luckily the sun is getting higher and higher but I see a lot of murky, colder days with possibly more below freezing mornings than most of Jan & Feb. Because it's March it won't be extremely cold. Probably highs in the 30s/lows in the 20s. Yes colder than all winter. Also we can't know for sure they'll be no storms. Even weaker systems could produce some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 GFS can south a tad. A little front end snow (this is snow depth map). Can CPK get 0.7 inches to avoid the snowfall futility record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 What reason ? SmhRight, because you know there’s definitely going to be a massive, historic KU climbing the coast with 24”+ and -30F below normal highs. There are no definites in weather and for the most part, in life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Definitely a small tick south on the GEFS. Maybe following the op at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Right, because you know there’s definitely going to be a massive, historic KU climbing the coast with 24”+ and -30F below normal highs. There are no definites in weather and for the most part, in life No one is saying that. You always go with extremes. Either it’s “warm, nothing, zip, nada, no snow for you!” Or you freak out on an imaginary person calling for a blizzard. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Typical 18z GFS shenanigans or something more because that was a pretty substantial move aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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