Allsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models usually have a hard time with blocking Finally a week of tracking 2 storms. Been a while. Models trending weaker with the block and 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 This storm is gravy. Our window is the 10th onwards. I still am leaning a couple inches to rain for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Models trending weaker with the block and 50/50 I think what the EURO shows now can happen quick thump to rain. Our window doesn't start to the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The 12Z Euro did bump north quite a lot, but verbatim, it's still a decent snow for NYC and north. Of course things could keep moving north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models usually have a hard time with blocking Finally a week of tracking 2 storms. Been a while. We get lucky tomorrow with the -PNA and a solid 50/50 low. But we lose the 50/50 later in the week and get a stronger Miller A. Nothing to hold back an amped up Miller A when we have a strong -PNA no matter how strong the -NAO is. So you want a weaker sheared out system to make the late week work. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We get lucky tomorrow with the -PNA and a solid 50/50 low. But we lose the 50/50 later in the week and get a stronger Miller A. Nothing to hold back an amped up Miller A when we have a strong -PNA no matter how strong the -NAO is. So you want a weaker sheared out system to make the late week work. whats so special about the post March 10 period where we are supposed to get very cold and possibly snowy? Does the -PNA finally go away? Does the -NAO block get stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: The 12Z Euro did bump north quite a lot, but verbatim, it's still a decent snow for NYC and north. Of course things could keep moving north... Listening to people's reactions as the Euro was running, it sounded like the storm went up the St Lawrence Seaway...granted we weren't Jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEFS still a couple days behind the EPS. The good look starts the 12 here is the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 We will WANT a weak RNA with the -AO. Will be our best period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think this looks good. 50/50 low backbuilds. Timing is right as that piece of energy in the west moves to the east coast as the -NAO lifts out. Remember, -PNA by itself is more wetter than warmer(net temps/precip in March favors -PNA vs +PNA). So a north-oriented -PNA veering into -EPO does good. We just don't need that Aleutian high to completely trend south, which happens sometimes after you mix warmer air in the northern latitude levels (trend). Courtesy of Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Models trending weaker with the block and 50/50 Yep They can change right back after the 1st storm departs. Let's see what happens . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Models trending weaker with the block and 50/50 Yes that's no good. If that continues then everyone will rain even into NNE The 3/4 is the last system I'm invested in. If that one cuts then I'm done with this winter. I don't care how favorable March 10-12+ looks with spring firmly in control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 March 10-12 plus looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We will WANT a weak RNA with the -AO. Will be our best period. why not just want a +PNA lol that would be the best outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why not just want a +PNA lol that would be the best outcome Can lead to suppression congrats M.A. RNA -1SD or weaker. A weak PNA also works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why not just want a +PNA lol that would be the best outcome Also check the Chuck posts I brought in here he knows his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: March 10-12 plus looks good. You can't ignore climo even with a favorable pattern. Our averages are climbing near 50 by then. Not many snowstorms after March 12 looking at history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: You can't ignore climo even with a favorable pattern. Our averages are climbing near 50 by then. Not many snowstorms after March 12 looking at history Big forum so half here can still snow well into March CPK can and has snowed into April multiple times. The 10th through 20th is not too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Also check the Chuck posts I brought in here he knows his stuff. Sometimes he says really STRANGE things, I guess you caught him on a good day. It's interesting about the weak -PNA, we do know that PNA matters much less in March, but a strong -PNA will be bad regardless of the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Sometimes he says really STRANGE things, I guess you caught him on a good day. It's interesting about the weak -PNA, we do know that PNA matters much less in March, but a strong -PNA will be bad regardless of the time of year. Oh yeah I agree the PNA has to be -1SD or weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Big forum so half here can still snow well into March CPK can and has snowed into April multiple times. The 10th through 20th is not too late. Yup I don't care about double digit snowstorms this time of year but if we can get multiple 4-6 or even 4-8 inchers that would be awesome, that's what 1996 and 2018 were all about. One 8 incher and two 4 inchers would be just about perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Can lead to suppression congrats M.A. RNA -1SD or weaker. A weak PNA also works. so basically a PNA plus or minus 0.5 would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You can't ignore climo even with a favorable pattern. Our averages are climbing near 50 by then. Not many snowstorms after March 12 looking at history 4 inch snowstorms can and have occured right through the first third of April. Check out March-April 1996 and March-April 2018 3 4 inchers in March 1996 and 1 4 incher in April 1996 (JFK) and we had multiple 4 inchers in March 2018 including one 8 incher and 1 in April 2018 that was a 6 incher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: so basically a PNA plus or minus 0.5 would be perfect Yup. The MA wants a higher PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Big forum so half here can still snow well into March CPK can and has snowed into April multiple times. The 10th through 20th is not too late. Sure but it has almost zero staying power. I personally hate late winter snows. Anything outside of a 1956 or 1888 or 2018 to some extent after March 10 is meh to me. But because I've had nothing this winter I'll settle for anything just once. Hopefully Monday night delivers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 EPO being negative not positive helps.. If the Pacific ridge is also through Alaska, pattern is fine. (It's more applicable further south v latitude probably evens this out with snowfall) wet jet going into big 500mb 50/50 low in -EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The bleeding stopped this run of the GFS. This time we have a 1 to 3 thump of snow before the flip. Low is a little SE of 12z. This run is close to what I am thinking. Time will tell how much of a thump before the changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS has been trending stronger with the confluence. Not sure it'll be enough but still a lot of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS has been trending stronger with the confluence. Not sure it'll be enough but still a lot of time. Just like the storm tommor/Tuesday. Block trending stronger stronger leading up to showtime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: The bleeding stopped this run of the GFS. This time we have a 1 to 3 thump of snow before the flip. Low is a little SE of 12z. This run is close to what I am thinking. Time will tell how much of a thump before the changeover. Better well defined secondary this run it looks like. Would be kind of frustrating to waste this with cold air at the start of the storm but I can see your snow to rain scenario being a possible outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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