March 2023

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Typical 18z GFS shenanigans or something more because that was a pretty substantial move aloft. 

Not taking GFS seriously although it's funny that it is now the coldest model after being the furthest north before. I don't take anything seriously unless the RGEM is on board. 

[snowman19]

Typical 18z GFS shenanigans or something more because that was a pretty substantial move aloft. 

If that’s really a trend and not more than noise from the 18z GFS, other models need to follow suit at 0z tonight

[Winterweatherlover]

I could see Friday-Saturday being a sleet/zr situation I84 corridor into SNE. Snow will be hard to come by except an inch or so on the front end.  

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I could see Friday-Saturday being a sleet/zr situation I84 corridor into SNE. Snow will be hard to come by except an inch or so on the front end.  

Agreed but only 0.7 needed to avoid futility. 

[Winterweatherlover]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Typical 18z GFS shenanigans or something more because that was a pretty substantial move aloft. 

Maybe a naive question but what is the big difference? 

[forkyfork]

if the western trough ejects like on the eps we'd likely get a high end ku

[forkyfork]

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the GEPS is in agreement for the most part but the GEFS is stubborn. it's been coming around, tho. looks a lot better than it did yesterday

that is a classic pattern evolution. look how similar it is to the pattern progression for NYC's 18"+ storms

they both have the anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait, the deep 50/50 ULL, a -EPO that promotes cross-polar flow, and a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Pacific NW

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

That does look nice if it were to verify. Someone on the NE forum mentioned a pattern similar to March 1960

[Roger Smith]

I was just looking at the evolution of the 1914 blizzard (March 1-2) which was a late-developing coastal storm spawned in a trough that moved to the east coast with a fairly sizeable system in central Canada; when that reached Michigan, pressures began to fall on Feb 28 over the southeast coast, but the major low did not bomb out until it had almost reached Long Island. Record low pressure of 962 mb for NYC and 14" to 18" local snowfalls resulted, parts of NJ were very badly hit by drifting snow. The blizzard of 1888 was roughly similar although the coastal developed more gradually and the antecedent inland low was weaker than 1914. 

Another very large March snowfall was 8th-9th 1941. That one was a straight nor'easter, inland low pressure did not phase with it. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS can south a tad. A little front end snow (this is snow depth map).

Can CPK get 0.7 inches to avoid the snowfall futility record?

At least here that would definitely be a couple hours of snow/sleet before cold rain. Unfortunately the thrust of the WAA is largely west of here so the front end thump part would go through upstate NY, and by the time substantial precip gets here it would be too warm. We’ll see if we can get a last minute nudge south but SWFEs almost always go the other direction. We probably just had our one good one for the season. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That does look nice if it were to verify. Someone on the NE forum mentioned a pattern similar to March 1960

I hope it leads to something but I do have trouble taking anything seriously beyond 5 days. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least here that would definitely be a couple hours of snow/sleet before cold rain. Unfortunately the thrust of the WAA is largely west of here so the front end thump part would go through upstate NY, and by the time substantial precip gets here it would be too warm. We’ll see if we can get a last minute nudge south but SWFEs almost always go the other direction. We probably just had our one good one for the season. 

Good pattern setting up in March.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought you were Nosnow this year lol

I’m allsnow this spring 

[Nibor]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m allsnow this spring 

[Winterweatherlover]

RGEM is actually pretty close for the northern suburbs late week storm, might be a red flag to the extremely warm models. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Secondary way south on 0Z gfs.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEPS is in agreement for the most part but the GEFS is stubborn. it's been coming around, tho. looks a lot better than it did yesterday

that is a classic pattern evolution. look how similar it is to the pattern progression for NYC's 18"+ storms

they both have the anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait, the deep 50/50 ULL, a -EPO that promotes cross-polar flow, and a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Pacific NW

 
 Today's NAO of -0.9 was the most negative day in February since February 28th of 2018, which was 16 days after the 2/12/2018 major SSW. As recently as just 11 days ago, the GEFS mean had today's NAO only down to zero with runs a couple of days earlier than that still positive for the last days of Feb.

 Also, it wasn't but 4 days ago that the GEFS had the AO stay positive through the entire run. The point is that the models were slow to see this blocking, which illustrates well the difficulty the models have with the troposphere starting by week 2 after an SSW vs the much easier to forecast strat out several weeks.

 Looking ahead: with today's renewed plunge of the 60N winds at 10 mb (to -18 or -19 m/s, which is significantly lower than the -13 m/s of the mid Feb major SSW) and thus a weak and extremely displaced SPV, folks shouldn't assume that the NAO, AO or anything else is anywhere near set in stone once looking ahead to week two, especially after day 10. Currently, the GEFS has on day 10 the NAO rise back to -0.4 and the AO rise back to 0.  Will these actually verify?

[jm1220]

GFS is a 4-5 hour pounding of sleet for NYC/LI and maybe some good snow well north. Has the warm layer way high, around 700mb actually.

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Secondary way south on 0Z gfs.

Noteworthy trends for sure that introduces some frozen into the forum. 

[snowman19]

Happy Met Spring everyone!

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Happy Met Spring everyone!

Horrible

[CIK62]

February ended at      41.1[+5.2].       3rd. Place.         D,J,F   >>>    41.0[+4.7]   

 

The first 8 days of March are averaging     40degs.(34/46) or just Normal.

Reached 39 here yesterday at 1:30pm.

Today:      44-46, wind n. to se., p. sunny, cloudy  late, rain overnight, 44 tomorrow AM.

36*(77%RH) here at 6am.      40* at 9am.       42* at 10am.       44* at Noon.

 

[EastonSN+]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
 Today's NAO of -0.9 was the most negative day in February since February 28th of 2018, which was 16 days after the 2/12/2018 major SSW. As recently as just 11 days ago, the GEFS mean had today's NAO only down to zero with runs a couple of days earlier than that still positive for the last days of Feb.

 Also, it wasn't but 4 days ago that the GEFS had the AO stay positive through the entire run. The point is that the models were slow to see this blocking, which illustrates well the difficulty the models have with the troposphere starting by week 2 after an SSW vs the much easier to forecast strat out several weeks.

 Looking ahead: with today's renewed plunge of the 60N winds at 10 mb (to -18 or -19 m/s, which is significantly lower than the -13 m/s of the mid Feb major SSW) and thus a weak and extremely displaced SPV, folks shouldn't assume that the NAO, AO or anything else is anywhere near set in stone once looking ahead to week two, especially after day 10. Currently, the GEFS has on day 10 the NAO rise back to -0.4 and the AO rise back to 0.  Will these actually verify?

Apologies if I am being obtuse, however it looks like the entire pattern shifts from an RNA/blocking pattern to a -EPO, +PNA pattern with an east coast trough. Do you see the same?

[EastonSN+]

IF the GFS has the correct idea on the next storm, CPK rises out of futility. 0.7 for CPK. Obviously we need another small tick SW to create a buffer.

[EastonSN+]

The ensembles show two distinct snowfall patterns coming up.

Approx the 7th we have the NAO keeping heights lowered in our area with a ridge JUST to our west. Think their past storm (mixing in buffalo snow in CPK).

Then just 3 to 4 days later we get a spike in PNA resulting in an east coast trough. How long this lasts I do not know but this timeframe has MAJOR potential. Our risk will be suppression.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

IF the GFS has the correct idea on the next storm, CPK rises out of futility. 0.7 for CPK. Obviously we need another small tick SW to create a buffer.

Eps shifting south 

Maybe more snow for the interior 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps shifting south 

Maybe more snow for the interior 

Need to see more south trends today otherwise this is a non event for us

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps shifting south 

Maybe more snow for the interior 

Yeah I mean 0.7 inches is very doable in CPK. Would not take much at all to accomplish. 

However WOW on the pattern coming up. Now we have to be cautious as we know a good pattern does not guarantee that success is realized, however we can't strike out twice in one season can we?

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I mean 0.7 inches is very doable in CPK. Would not take much at all to accomplish. 

However WOW on the pattern coming up. Now we have to be cautious as we know a good pattern does not guarantee that success is realized, however we can't strike out twice in one season can we?

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