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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

True.. Side note .. When did the GEFS turn to trough in east day 10+

 

image.thumb.png.52e4312162d43088b361e408b47a79ff.png

I think it's just more ensemble members "Seeing" the 2/10-12 signal....the trough doesn't last though as SE ridge builds back quickly after that. But you can see that EPO ridge north of AK and it stays there....so that's one reason that February might have a sporadic cold shot or two mixed in with the mildness....we didn't have that look in January.

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it's just more ensemble members "Seeing" the 2/10-12 signal....the trough doesn't last though as SE ridge builds back quickly after that. But you can see that EPO ridge north of AK and it stays there....so that's one reason that February might have a sporadic cold shot or two mixed in with the mildness....we didn't have that look in January.

 

63dab56485d0f.png

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re kind of almost getting there. I guess 2020-2021 interrupted the below normal streak here but other than that year, it’s been pretty shitty since 2017-18. I guess 2018-19 wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t good either. Esp with Dec 2018 being an epic turd for snowfall. 

This is what I have been saying...I didn't have that one good year, though 19-20 wasn't as awful here as it was for most of SNE. 5 consecutive shitty seasons, barring an epic rebound this year.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like those looks. Hopefully something to the 10th give or take.

Yeah there's been some scooter high looks on various runs on that system....hopefully we can cash that one in. Not a ton of antecedent cold though (what else is new this winter)....but it's more than enough if you get the high in a decent spot.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least in these recent seasons we had some biggies. We got absolutely nothing in those years for larger events. What a disaster.

It is still mind-blowing to me (I wouldn't believe it if I didn't personally experience every minute of it) that ORH went 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snow event from '88-'89 through '91-'92....I wonder what the return rate on that one is. :lol:

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is still mind-blowing to me (I wouldn't believe it if I didn't personally experience every minute of it) that ORH went 4 consecutive winters without a double digit snow event from '88-'89 through '91-'92....I wonder what the return rate on that one is. :lol:

At least back then we really didn't know any better. It helped being a little naive. I just remember being constantly triggered when my family would always say "we don't get snow like we used to."  I literally had to walk away in anger.  

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

How much accretion is that?

They had 0.8” or so liquid fall as ZR at the airport overnight. It fell at 30-31 degrees so a fair amount ran off but that area is unused to any type of winter weather besides some brief sleet or ice. Pretty much like any other southern city. I used to live there and it would be a disaster even for a brief glaze that would be gone after the stronger sun down there rises. For entire trees like that to come down I’d think it has to be a half inch accretion or greater though. Domain is the north side of the city and a little away from downtown so maybe it was a degree or two colder there. There were 150k outages in the city alone (Austin is a million people and about 2M or so metro area) last I checked so this was a widespread damaging event. And this isn’t an area that has widespread gas usage for heat so many are also shivering right now. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least back then we really didn't know any better. It helped being a little naive. I just remember being constantly triggered when my family would always say "we don't get snow like we used to."  I literally had to walk away in anger.  

Yep....that's all we heard as kids. "we don't get the big ones like when I was younger....we used to get blizzards where the piles would be over your head in the driveway, not just the supermarket parking lots!". After a while, I assumed they were exaggerating....like I figured they were snowier than the dogshit winters we were getting at the time, but not to the degree they were telling us.

Then finally '92-'93 happened to end the streak and I also started reading more about local weather history as I got into middle school/high school and finally realized just how horrific those late '80s/early 90s winters were relative to all the other years.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know we keep saying this...but you younger kidz have no idea how awful many of those winters were. Sure it's a little warmer nowadays, but imagine a map showing 3-6" making you literally stay up all night to observe it. This was our youth for many of us.

Also being subjected to that crap for years in a row at that age made it even worse....4 or 5 years now doesn't seem that long, but it is an ETERNITY for a kid.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still can recall the feelings I would get being in a 4-8" zone or the coveted 6"+ zone that was shown in bright white. :lol: 

3-6" was "exciting" but anything over 6" was like how we would react to 15"+ nowadays. If 6" was your lower range back then, you were literally doing backflips off the couch.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also being subjected to that crap for years in a row at that age made it even worse....4 or 5 years now doesn't seem that long, but it is an ETERNITY for a kid.

So much time wasted in a classroom doing long division that could have been profitably used sledding or storming snow forts. Sad days those were.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL and ORH on well on track. Both need 4” or less from here on out to break all time snowless records. The way the pattern looks.. and pattern persistence in terms of how we’ve missed snowstorms this winter ..a betting man would place a lot of money on futility 

I will take that bet for both. How much beer?

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

So much time wasted in a classroom doing long division that could have been profitably used sledding or storming snow forts. Sad days those were.

We got back to back snow events in January 1991 I remember....the first one was 2" and the second was like 7 or 8 inches.....and the snow stuck around for about 2 weeks before melting. We were literally outside sledding, doing snowball fights, etc for those 2 weeks. I remember thinking "This is what winter is supposed to be like"....just seeing snow fall onto top of existing snowpack was alien to me. It was like I discovered fire for the first time.

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Been crazy warm… only 1 day with sub-zero in January (this will actually count as #2 before midnight).

33/20 is the monthly Max/Min here, for +11.2 :lol:… but still averages solidly below freezing for the most part.

Honestly, many up here think it’s been a good month for outdoor recreation after the first week. Heating bills are low, good snowfall, snow cover, and no truly cold days keeping folks inside.  Rotting in the 20s for like a week straight at times.

Can’t pull off winter at +11 in any other month than January.

 

Cannot beat warm and snowy.  I know the frigidaires love it but I remember some brutally cold days in the 80's and especially 90's at Cannon or Wildcat, when the summit is like -10 and the wind is 40mph (or higher), lifts shut down, etc.  it's not really fun at that point (jmo)

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The "We don't have winters like we used to" thing has been around a long, long time. My grandfather who was born 1909 would tell me as a kid in the 70's that same thing. Made me furious. Until that time in February 1978... it actually pained him that I was around to see the greatest storm in New England's history.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also being subjected to that crap for years in a row at that age made it even worse....4 or 5 years now doesn't seem that long, but it is an ETERNITY for a kid.

Agreed.  After we moved west to the Jersey Highlands in 1950, we went 5 winters with no 10" storms and only one over 6".  Then March 1956 happened.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We got back to back snow events in January 1991 I remember....the first one was 2" and the second was like 7 or 8 inches.....and the snow stuck around for about 2 weeks before melting. We were literally outside sledding, doing snowball fights, etc for those 2 weeks. I remember thinking "This is what winter is supposed to be like"....just seeing snow fall onto top of existing snowpack was alien to me. It was like I discovered fire for the first time.

Yes 7/8 top low snows at ORH were during your grandparents time. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also being subjected to that crap for years in a row at that age made it even worse....4 or 5 years now doesn't seem that long, but it is an ETERNITY for a kid.

I do have that nostalgia from the 90's of seeing Mark Rosenthals' 6-12"+ shade of purple on the south coast and thinking it was a going to be a biggie..which would sometimes get updated to the white shade of 12"+, with the 6-12" moving further inland. Good times. 

I know I'm talking about a bit later (like mid 90s)..but those numbers still felt like a lot then, compared to what we've gotten used to over the past 20. 

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