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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dec '88 to March '92 enroute.

We’re kind of almost getting there. I guess 2020-2021 interrupted the below normal streak here but other than that year, it’s been pretty shitty since 2017-18. I guess 2018-19 wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t good either. Esp with Dec 2018 being an epic turd for snowfall. 

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Since I like to see records broken any possibility this winter ends up in the top 5 for snow futility anywhere in the region?

It’s possible but unlikely imho. I think out of the major NWS BOX New England sites, PVD would have the best shot at a top 5 futility. They are currently sitting at 4.9 inches and would need to finish under 11.8 to get a top 5 futility badge. 
 

If we go south and include BDR, they would have the best shot. They are sitting at 0.8” and they need to finish below 9.3” for a top 5 futile season. 

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47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Since I like to see records broken any possibility this winter ends up in the top 5 for snow futility anywhere in the region?

BDL and ORH on well on track. Both need 4” or less from here on out to break all time snowless records. The way the pattern looks.. and pattern persistence in terms of how we’ve missed snowstorms this winter ..a betting man would place a lot of money on futility 

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m sure it’s happened before but off the top of my head I can’t remember the first week in February ever not having at least one snow threat in the long range 

Can't say what happened there, but 1st half Feb 2009 had nada here, except for a thaw.  Then 19-23 had 2 storms totaling 33".  We can dream.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clown range EPS has potential for one of those February 60+ or even 70+ torches on that look. Let’s get that in here if it’s not gonna snow….then get a big dog as we go into march and then call it a winter. 

Just an op ed on that... It seems to me that if the synoptics cross that threshold, the result won't stop at 60 or even 70+.  Get the 576 isohypses N of ALB-BOS, with a deep layer WSW laminar flow out of west TX ... yeah

I realize I've labored the aspect as of late, but the eye-popping 80 F has proven doable, in mid or latter February, three times in the past 5 years.   Which lol, I realize 70+ counts.. .but you know what I mean.

I think it goes full raging summer vibe, in winter, should the synoptic dam break and it warm bursts...  

I don't hold back, though.  ha.  I just call the f*n cigar a cigar, but if it's lazy flag waving 81F at Hanscom Field in Bedford on say .., it is what it is.    Oh, it'd "only" 73 at ORH.  And the DPs would be like 9F ... RF warning..all that, but  ( and this will roll Scott's eyes - so much fun!) after about February 10 we've cross out of the solar minimum span - which begins on Nov 10 and ends on that Feb date.  That's just environmentally/celestial mechanically unavoidable ...and the right feed-backs from the right sort of synopsis will make use of that solar input. 

I just wonder why that synoptic aspect is repeating. It doesn't seem to be tied to ENSO this or polar field that.  Is it dumb luck..?  I don't believe CC is why - don't bother... I mean, there could be some help there because launch pads are higher... maybe.  I don't know.  But in the here and now, we are crossing up Nina climo, with statically positive AO, a strengthening MJO wave between 3-6, and a recent decadal repeating signal for warm bursts... 

Do we need Rain- Man to predict the next card in the dealer's deck?    We'll see -

 

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Oh... and if that is not enough...the event out there 11 ..13th of the month is still a valid signal. Not sure what for it may take.  Could be icing... I think there is reasonable shot that would be wintry in profile, given the ballast of guidance sources still think there's cold within reach N of the border... 

After mid month though... I wouldn't be surprised if we see that big warm up start to materialize more obviously...

Things seldom work out according to organized vision ...but this month may be diametric in appeal between the  first and last chunks.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s going to be funny if next season is even average snow…a lot of people are going to feel like it’s an abnormally snowy winter if that happens. Same with temps. 

Ha true, Maybe this season will be better for us in the long run.. As long as you give me a month long stretch of cold snow threats and decent pack for down here I'm content. 

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8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ha true, Maybe this season will be better for us in the long run.. As long as you give me a month long stretch of cold snow threats and decent pack for down here I'm content. 

I think there's probably plenty of people (not even just weather enthusiasts) that became used to the higher snow winters of the 2000s/2010s not realizing that those are somewhat anomalous in the longer record. There's other periods that are fairly prolific, but once again, they aren't the norm, they are outlier periods and they are often preceded or followed by some crappy stretches (think 1940s/early 1950s or 1980s/early 1990s)

Like I often have to tell people that BOS 48.2" snowfall average is not totally representative of the longer climate record. Snowfall isn't quite like temps....we get a monster sample of temperatures every year, but we do not get a big sample of snowfalls, so 30 years is pretty precarious to base a snowfall climo on.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there's probably plenty of people (not even just weather enthusiasts) that became used to the higher snow winters of the 2000s/2010s not realizing that those are somewhat anomalous in the longer record. There's other periods that are fairly prolific, but once again, they aren't the norm, they are outlier periods and they are often preceded or followed by some crappy stretches (think 1940s/early 1950s or 1980s/early 1990s)

Like I often have to tell people that BOS 48.2" snowfall average is not totally representative of the longer climate record. Snowfall isn't quite like temps....we get a monster sample of temperatures every year, but we do not get a big sample of snowfalls, so 30 years is pretty precarious to base a snowfall climo on.

True.. Side note .. When did the GEFS turn to trough in east day 10+

 

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