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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They only need 3.8” to beat it (and 1.8 inches if we use Kevin’s criteria of excluding snowfall past 3/31). One run-of-the-mill forgettable front ender would do it. 
 

We used to always sled down the street when I was younger. Plows would get it down to packed snow but they didn’t use as much salt back then so you would have this 1-2” layer of hard packed snow to sled on in the middle of the street (our neighborhood was a giant hill with 2 or 3 streets running down it). 
 

We used to hate it when the sanders came through because it would temporarily screw up the sledding but after a little more snow, the sand disappeared. It didn’t melt the snow like salt does. They were obsessed with using sand back then for traction. 

Yep exactly my memories. School St hill in Westerly is almost a mile long. Helluva walk back up. The town actually shut it down for us for a day one year might have been Feb 69 if my memoryis right, older kids and parents were shuttling kids using the next street over. Good times

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Generally any middle to high end brewery you’re paying $20-$23 per 4 pack . If they’re pale ale IPA’s closer to $15.. if double IPA over $20

So you need what 3 beers for a buzz. So 3 buzzes for 40 bucks. You can buy me 40 5 mg gummies for 40 bucks and I can get 20 buzzes. Lol

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7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

What would you make odds for ORH going 3.7" or less?

They’ve never done it in the record so I’d prob put the odds under 1% without looking at anything. If we assume they don’t see anything in the next 7 days which seems reasonable, then maybe the odds rise to a little better than 100 to 1. I’d have to run the numbers from like 2/10-onward to see if they have ever done less than 4” from there. 1995 may have done it…we had hardly anything after the 2/4 storm. We did get a couple inches on the front end of the 2/27-28 ice storm but very little outside of that…there was one other event of less than an inch before the ice storm…and I know we got skunked in March ‘95. 

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Ya, Kevin gonna lose that bet with Ginx. Way to much time left in this winter season to think BDL or Worcester can’t get 3-4” the rest of the winter season on Feb 1st. It has been abysmal for sure, but to think everybody is done on Feb 1st, is folly. If it was a month from now, you’d still be gambling, but on Feb 1st, to say/bet that 3-4” can’t fall the rest of the winter, that’s unrealistic.  It can happen, but incredibly low odds. 

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12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

much worse than I thought, ~1%.  Kev should get 400 beers?

I don’t think this pattern holds much chance of a 4” snowfall or combined. There’s nothing thru week 3 so the window  is really late month into early Morch . That Feb 11 threat looks just like all the other fails this winter. Little to no cold and thread a needle. 

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10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

much worse than I thought, ~1%.  Kev should get 400 beers?

If we start with a date of 2/10, then the odds increase a little bit....I was correct about 1995....also 1954 and 1901 failed to reach 4" after 2/10 but both were close (over 3 inches).

So we're up to 3 out of 130 years versus 0 out of 130.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take everything down 

Pants and undies?

Obviously I would not wish for anyone’s homes or vehicles being totaled but I wonder what your response would really be if a big oak was in your living room while your truck was pancaked on your driveway.

I can’t imagine you’d pound another IPA in excitement while the wife and kids cry out the shock…but I could be wrong.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think this pattern holds much chsnce of a 4” snowfall or combined. There’s nothing thru week 3 so the wind is really is late month into early Morch . That Feb 11 threat looks just like all the other fails this winter. Little to no cold and thread a needle. 

ORH just had 12.2" in a month that was literally +10 on temps. They only need one third of that total for you to lose your bet. You need to understand climo a little better I think before wagering.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH just had 12.2" in a month that was literally +10 on temps. They only need one third of that total for you to lose your bet. You need to understand climo a little better I think before wagering.

I understand Climo perfectly fine . Both sites have to get 4” to lose the bet. Climo doesn’t give a FOC this winter about snowfall 

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pants and undies?

Obviously I would not wish for anyone’s homes or vehicles being totaled but I wonder what your response would really be if a big oak was in your living room while your truck was pancaked on your driveway.

I can’t imagine you’d pound another IPA in excitement while the wife and kids cry out the shock…but I could be wrong.

As long as nobody were hurt, he’d have excitement, even if he couldn’t say it out loud. 

Excitement is the operative word. If a 2” hail storm wiped out my car, I’d hate it, but without question would be in awe of the event as it happened and the damage afterward. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

As long as nobody were hurt, he’d have excitement, even if he couldn’t say it out loud. 

Excitement is the operative word. If a 2” hail storm wiped out my car, I’d hate it, but without question would be in awe of the event as it happened and the damage afterward. 

My truck meh my house oh hell no

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