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January 2023


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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom_1day-3654400.thumb.png.c7f79cfbd7cd388e79059f518a181fd0.pngecmwf-deterministic-ne-t2m_f-3697600.thumb.png.6edd46f05acb55764f79938d7718777b.png

Gfs shows something similar.  We might be in business here if it holds .

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2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

So basically and unprecedented El Nino storm or a gutter ball!

 

I’ll go with the gutter ball at this point. The question is how low will the snowfall total be?

The most common ranges 10"-20" seasonal snowfall might be feasible. I suspect the worst case scenario would be one where the City receives less than 1" snowfall (1997-98 came close only to be bailed out by a 5" snowfall in March).

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12 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Would love to read Bluewave’s take soon as well. 

I’m returning home from work early today with 68 on the Tempest and lots of darker cloud cover. No doubt that’s stopping me from the 70 mark right now. 

Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. 

Excellent 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement. 

Only thing I’m counting on is continued learning and hopefully, eventually a surprise or two. 

Thanks for weighing in. 

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3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ever go to musconetcong?

No I've never been to Musconetcong. I know it's beautiful though so I'll check it out soon. Today I did some hiking in Readington. I also like to go to Great Swamp,  Round Valley Recreation Area and Swartswood State Park. Swartswood State Park up in Sussex County is my favorite hiking area. 

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36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I've been saying this since before Christmas. The pattern breakdown is temporary. The 12z GEFS actually reloads the pattern by early next week and it gets progressively warmer towards the third week of January. If true, we're looking at +5-7C or average daytime highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I've been saying this since before Christmas. The pattern breakdown is temporary. The 12z GEFS actually reloads the pattern by early next week and it gets progressively warmer towards the third week of January. If true, we're looking at +5-7C or average daytime highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's.

We need to be going for all time monthly record if that happens right?

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