tavwtby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 actually rippin pretty good here now, good growth, closing in on .5" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 9 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Martha's Vineyard will have close to 3 x's my snow for the season if that verifies, and I hope it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, tavwtby said: actually rippin pretty good here now, good growth, closing in on .5" Sloppy analysis ... I have not honesty been paying much attention to today's affairs. But just cursory eval against synoptic awareness, a nice little warm advection snow burst. Radar filling in rather quickly over CT and western MA over the last hour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I’m starting to get interested in the Sunday system again. Probably not anything big due to how progressive the pattern is, but maybe an outside shot at a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Changes, indeed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can’t until I see others move west. But I had to LOL when I saw this. Man, your area has been the luckiest over the past 10 years! Hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sloppy analysis ... I have not honesty been paying much attention to today's affairs. But just cursory eval against synoptic awareness, a nice little warm advection snow burst. Radar filling in rather quickly over CT and western MA over the last hour.. hey, I'll take what I can... I'll be on the road this time tomorrow headed to Soflo for like a month, so it'll be the last white I see, outside some crazy chance it snows in south Florida... official, .5" and I'm now at 8" on the season, woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US so, even though the GEFS has some initial weak SE ridging as the pattern establishes itself, which often happens, the pattern quickly becomes very cold and pretty damn favorable north of Philly. I like seeing the signals that the TPV will get displaced and elongated, as we'd have no source region issues at all and HPs will pack a bigger punch... antecedent airmasses are more likely to be favorable as well, and there's semi-permanent confluence where the TPV locates itself: the EPS and GEPS look favorable due to a farther E ridge into the PNA domain. they both manage to keep the SE ridge offshore and the baroclinic zone S. these patterns would provide numerous chances: I do understand the hesitation and even the pessimism given how this winter has gone, believe me. it's been really frustrating. but looking in a vacuum, this has the potential to become a legitimately good pattern with a bit of luck. there is a risk of cutters, but there's a risk in pretty much every pattern outside of Feb 2010. we're likely going to see one around the 22nd or so that establishes the cold airmass, but that's how these types of patterns go moving forward, I want to see the -NAO trend a bit more cohesive. this has been happening, but this would change the pattern into something decent to good into a potentially great one. I also want to see the +PNA ridge tick east or for the cross polar flow to strengthen via the potential cutoff high N of AK. this would "force" cold air east regardless of the PNA, similar to what the GEFS has overall, I still want to wait a bit to see which ensemble suite has the correct evolution, but I'm honestly kind of excited to see where this will go. if the boundary is far enough south, which is certainly possible even without -NAO help (which may show up), then these types of patterns can provide events quickly. regardless, there will be tons of cold air on our side of the globe, and it's a thousand times better than what we've been seeing for the last couple weeks 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Getting some legit cold airmasses in here would certainly help.....you can have imperfect storm tracks and do well when you have a good antecedent airmass. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Nothing at my place, then about 1/2" once I hit the Dascomb Rd exit inside of 495. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Anytime models hint at SE ridging it's a major concern. It just has to verify stronger than forecast, very easy to do, and welcome to cutter land. Occasionally you can get multiple cutters that force the boundary east and then eventually the last shortwave in the series can be a coastal that brings snow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I can’t until I see others move west. But I had to LOL when I saw this. I have that on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Anytime models hint at SE ridging it's a major concern. It just has to verify stronger than forecast, very easy to do, and welcome to cutter land. Occasionally you can get multiple cutters that force the boundary east and then eventually the last shortwave in the series can be a coastal that brings snow. it's not always a death sentence. the WAR is the main reason why 2013-14 and 2014-15 were so snowy. numerous waves that were OTS 3-5 days out were brought back to the coast and delivered snow because of it if the TPV is sitting overhead, you'll just be cold and dry while the Carolinas get slammed, which is what happened in March 2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That has been winter so far. Just a massive bowel movement after about 4IPAs and a Pu-Pu platter the night before. We talk about man snow often but this is a man winter. It’s putting a strand of chest hair on those who need to man up. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 We've had a nice moderate band move through Simsbury the last hour. Half inch down now. The roads are pretty slick due to lack of treatment... I love it! 29 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We talk about man snow often but this is a man winter. It’s putting a strand of chest hair on those who need to man up. My chest hair is so thick at this point I could braid it like a Dothraki warrior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's not always a death sentence. the WAR is the main reason why 2013-14 and 2014-15 were so snowy. numerous waves that were OTS 3-5 days out were brought back to the coast and delivered snow because of it Thanks so much for clarifying, really appreciate your take. Ya he’s all worried(might need a break)…I don’t know why, it can’t get any worse for him, or us in SNE for that matter. I realize he’s further south and it becomes harder there, with a SE ridge. We’ve been snowing here for about 90 plus minutes. Everything white and 30 degrees…including the pavement for those who thought the ground was too warm. About .5”. 4.3” on the season. Creeping up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, tavwtby said: hey, I'll take what I can... I'll be on the road this time tomorrow headed to Soflo for like a month, so it'll be the last white I see, outside some crazy chance it snows in south Florida... official, .5" and I'm now at 8" on the season, woohoo Nice. I'm surprised I have more in Westfield this year than you have in Winsted. This half inch will put me at 11.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: My chest hair is so thick at this point I could braid it like a Dothraki warrior. You can always wax it as you tan on the back deck in Tanuary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Snowing in Danielson at work and at home on my web cam. Hey any snow is good when it's falling. Reminder that it's still winter. I am tingly over long term. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thanks so much for clarifying, really appreciate your take. Ya he’s all worried(might need a break)…I don’t know why, it can’t get any worse for him, or us in SNE for that matter. I realize he’s further south and it becomes harder there, with a SE ridge. We’ve been snowing here for about 90 plus minutes. Everything white and 30 degrees…including the pavement for those who thought the ground was too warm. About .5”. 4.3” on the season. Creeping up lol. .2” on the season here lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I am getting goosey about a complete flip to this winter. Will take the heat if it fails but man that's one sweet ass Hemispheric look. Kill me if you want part 2 I have a warm and fuzzy feeling when she flips over, we bang and bang hard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have a warm and fuzzy feeling when she flips over, we bang and bang hard. Nice to see you optimistic Luke. I hope so too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I have a warm and fuzzy feeling when she flips over, we bang and bang hard. Bawitdaba-da bang-da-bang-diggy-diggy-diggy Bawitdaba-da bang-da-bang-diggy-diggy-diggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Early on but NAM looks improved for weekend event. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nice to see you optimistic Luke. I hope so too. I just think this season has behaved strangely so far and with persistency. If it snaps back, as it always does, then we can rock to close out the season. Hopefully it snaps back in time though and not in April-May lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I just think this season has behaved strangely so far and with persistency. If it snaps back, as it always does, then we can rock to close out the season. Hopefully it snaps back in time though and not in April-May lol. Oh ya…completely understood where you’re coming from. It’s still January…that’s the very good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Early on but NAM looks improved for weekend event. . Tell us more… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bawitdaba-da bang-da-bang-diggy-diggy-diggy Bawitdaba-da bang-da-bang-diggy-diggy-diggy Light one up chilled and relaxed, laughing, while the snow piles up. Kids happy and online weenies shocked in excitement. Papa knows… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 31/29. -SN .25” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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