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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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28 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I start thinking like the rest of you, I won't be able to forecast. 

@brooklynwx99--a 24 yr old amateur flexin' his new red tag with model graphics we all can see--has been leading you all off a bridge. But like minded as you are, happily off you go.

Aren't you like more than twice his age?

 

How's you SE ridge doing? 

 

500h_anom.conus.png

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The same issues remain though, I think people are whistling past the graveyard yet again. The antecedent airmass is garbage and a lot of solutions, even ones that are well offshore, are showing a warm solution.

 

Marine puke is once again going to be a huge problem; regardless of track.

I would definitely cancel your trip to NNE. What days are you going?

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can see why no one mentioned the models...everything for the 14th looks worse, which is all I, and most, care about.

Not that it matters right now, but outta work with covid and was hoping for late night model cinema. 

Hope it’s a quick and easy covid course for you, Ray!   

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So is the elephant in the room the airmass Just  sucks Even for mid January due to the pacific pattern unrelenting Cali trough Or nah . I.E are we threading the needle in SNE with temps again for 14’th or not really as I haven’t paid much attention to this as it’s been 10+ days out  
 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The same issues remain though, I think people are whistling past the graveyard yet again. The antecedent airmass is garbage and a lot of solutions, even ones that are well offshore, are showing a warm solution.

 

Marine puke is once again going to be a huge problem; regardless of track.

Cancel your trip..it’s over. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Speaking of Canada…the cmc would probably just end winter. All hope down dee fukin drain.

Whiff whiff, massive cutter with rains to Canada. Not sure you could end a winter that never got going though.

 

Not even kidding, I’m not sure what some people are seeing in the long range. This has the classic feel of something that’s constantly 2-3 weeks away.

No cold air to be found

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Ya'll are gonna drive yourself nuts looking at OP runs 200 hours out....Euro has like -20C 850 temps over SNE at 200 hours last night and the entire system gets shoved out to sea.

If the storm gets completely cut off from the rest of the polar jet, then yeah, you're gonna have a springtime look to it but I'd probably wait until we're a little closer to start your whine and cheese party all over again

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The same issues remain though, I think people are whistling past the graveyard yet again. The antecedent airmass is garbage and a lot of solutions, even ones that are well offshore, are showing a warm solution.

 

Marine puke is once again going to be a huge problem; regardless of track.

It’s January in New England, we don’t need frigid temps to snow. OP runs are useless this far out, the important thing is the ensembles have a signal.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Whiff whiff, massive cutter with rains to Canada. Not sure you could end a winter that never got going though.

 

Not even kidding, I’m not sure what some people are seeing in the long range. This has the classic feel of something that’s constantly 2-3 weeks away.

No cold air to be found

You’re F’n neurotic…wow. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ya'll are gonna drive yourself nuts looking at OP runs 200 hours out....Euro has like -20C 850 temps over SNE at 200 hours last night and the entire system gets shoved out to sea.

If the storm gets completely cut off from the rest of the polar jet, then yeah, you're gonna have a springtime look to it but I'd probably wait until we're a little closer to start your whine and cheese party all over again

Ya yesterday it was 1888 style. Last night cold confluence drove it out to sea. Today it’s a warm Rainer.  But we’re whistling past the graveyard when we say it’s an OP run 8 days out. Sad. 

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Don't have ENS out that far yet but this look verbatim...given where we are in time frame...I'll take this all day.

Favorable position of the ridge axis, trough digging into the southeast with shortwave energy about to round the base and go negatively tilted towards the Southeast coast. Can't ask for more than that. Who gives a **** what the SLP maps or snowfall maps show

image.png.abc4922cb380e0006e1fbeeebffbc8e0.png

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