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Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday


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10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I’m right up the road from Woodford in the Stratton area at about 1,800 feet. Hoping for a good dump. Will what are your thoughts for this area?

You might be in one of the best spots for this storm. I’d expect a foot minimum there. 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think the Hail Mary play is for the 925 low to elongate Eastward in early afternoon and tuck 850/925 0c line SE . If the eastern end could become strong enough maybe that can happen . Either way looks like It sort of consolidates again overnite and just slowly moves NE from MVY to Outer cape (925 low)

I'd draw a line from 91 just interior away from shoreline and areas west up to Hartford, then Northeast to Putnam... Up to Worcester/Fitchburg. If you're south and east of that line, forget about it for sure. 

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52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But not that good most times…beat to crap, way too crowded and very tight.  But when you’re young and broke and stupid…it was fun. 

When you are 2 hours from Albany, Hartford and Springfield it just gets pounded. The club does have 4 or 5 groomers and goes out every day when conditions warrant. Because their trail system is so limited by what the National Forest Service allows, they can’t really build trails to relieve some of the traffic. 

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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, downtown Gardener is close to 1000’ I think. Fitchburg and Leominster only around 500’?  
I guess we could see some huge gradients with this depending on how it plays out.  

I work in West Fitchburg @700 ft and live in Gardner @1020 ft.  The drive home on rt 2 can be wild sometimes with the elevation dependent systems.  I remember driving from pouring rain into a wall of snow a couple times. 

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

what would be your gut call for here?

It’s funny, I just said I’m glad I don’t operationally forecast up there these days. I’ve been waiting for the BL to keep cooling but it seemed to reverse slightly and start warming a tad since the 18z runs. Yet, every other aspect of the storm seems to be trending toward a big snowstorm there. Everything in my gut and past forecasting experience and instinct says go gung ho there…but do you go against the raw temp data on some of these runs? That’s the part you always have to wrestle with as a forecaster. You can’t ignore data without a very strong empirical reason. You pick and choose very carefully when it is appropriate to make the human adjustment and always make a note of what the outcome was in your forecast. 

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1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Yes it does. Up off Todd Hill and Benson Fuller. 

There was also one that was over 2500’. The environmental court ordered it torn dow because it violated the State’s rule on building at elevation. Not sure if that actuall got torn down or if it’s still in litigation. 

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

There was also one that was over 2500’. The environmental court ordered it torn dow because it violated the State’s rule on building at elevation. Not sure if that actuall got torn down or if it’s still in litigation. 

I remember talking about that in some thread last year, curious what the outcome was.

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I drive so little now living so close to work. I've got an AWD sedan so it should be fine. 

Snow tires 

AWD and I was all over the place last year too many times on any hills that had turning  with  snow cover  (had regular tires )and I had “snow mode “ it was spooky enough to say “what am I doing “ 

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I think Scott's earlier point is a good one... deep easterly flow with warm SSTs off Massachusetts do a number on the boundary layer EOR. Still around -1C at 925 which is good but low level warm advection in the boundary layer off the Atlantic PLUS dynamics that are OK but not extreme (as Scott said) probably is the difference for places like Kevin and Winter Hill?

Seems like that longitude assist (plus some nice upslope diabatic cooling) will help out Litchfield Hills and Berks. 

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16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I drive so little now living so close to work. I've got an AWD sedan so it should be fine. 

I literally drive one mile to work, so I hear ya, but when you love winter sports as you and I do, the truck is indispensable.  The all wheel drive sedans are good, but what stops them is ground clearance. Once the snow gets too deep…it lifts them up from the underneath, and no more traction and it’s game over.  With a 4 wheel drive full size pick up(and they’re gorgeous now), that becomes almost a non issue for the most part.  You wouldn’t be worried about getting up to the slopes Saturday that’s for sure. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I literally drive one mile to work, so I hear ya, but when you love winter sports as you and I do, the truck is indispensable.  The all wheel drive sedans are good, but what stops them is ground clearance. Once the snow gets too deep…it lifts them up from the underneath, and no more traction and it’s game over.  With a 4 wheel drive full size pick up(and they’re gorgeous now), that becomes almost a non issue for the most part.  You wouldn’t be worried about getting up to the slopes that’s for sure Saturday. 

The low mileage and cost of filling tank…too rich for my blood. My outback is just fine, except I never/hate to drive in snows. Too stressful. I like hot cocoa, edibles, and being on my property with the kids. 

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