BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Ji said: so between Thursday event and something maybe on Dec 23? We are going go 8 days without precip in a good pattern? Yes and then a very strong cold front. Very strong. It’s strong I just saw it on the GFS. Thumbs up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is one hellacious Arctic cold front on HH GFS. ya that dosent work for me. 2 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is one hellacious Arctic cold front on HH GFS. GFS drinking vodka cold for HH today??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s wild. And that snow along the arctic front on the GFS is “real” and not an illusion like sometimes happens on the backside of storms on certain plots. Perhaps something like Feb. 14, 2015...or even more so?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Might not drop a lot of snow, but this would be fun AF. Oy Gevalt! A 20 degree difference between PG and MoCo in that 1st panel! Now...if we can get a nice little wave to propagate up the front...well...hmmmm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Perhaps something like Feb. 14, 2015...or even more so?? That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically. That's what it looked like to me. I know, parsing details of a model some 10 days out, but still. That's one hella dynamic system there and if it happens that way I could see a burst of heavy snow right as temps crash. Not like a huge amount, but still. In that Feb. 2014 event, I got about 2" in less than 2 hours as that Arctic front breezed through. This looks more intense than that. If something like that happened, probably nearly all of us would be pitching tent...so to speak! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Avocado cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Love me some avocado. On/with anything, anytime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown. can you imagine all the hours spent on this app this month for 1 inch of snow 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown. Someone engaging in a meltdown over an ops run 10+ days out? Say it ain't so! That person you infer probably has 2 letters in their name, involving the 9th and 10th letters of the alphabet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Someone engaging in a meltdown over an ops run 10+ days out? Say it ain't so! That person you infer probably has 2 letters in their name, involving the 9th and 10th letters of the alphabet? sorry---i dont see where i melted down. I posted a pic of the D10 euro and said Hi lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry---i dont see where i melted down. I posted a pic of the D10 euro and said Hi lol. Well to be fair, those Europeans like keeping things too warm over in these parts! (ETA: And I was referring to the current run of the GFS and to @CAPE's comment, not to the 12Z ops Euro that was posted before). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well to be fair, those Europeans like keeping things too warm over in these parts! well whats crazy is if things are going this well in an amazing pattern....imagine how things will turn when we hit the typical Nina +AO,+NAO, +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 ^^^ Its over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Its one OP run of one model and the arctic front would be cool, but I will say that I'll be a bit disappointed if this hyped period doesn't lead to something substantial before Christmas. Doesn't need to be a HECS. I know December 2009 doesn't happen often, but when we have a nice pattern to set up for snow right before or, even better, on Christmas, it would be really nice to cash in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Ji said: well whats crazy is if things are going this well in an amazing pattern....imagine how things will turn when we hit the typical Nina +AO,+NAO, +EPO I won't worry about whatever "typical Nina" indices may or may not occur. It's now December 13, we are looking at some unreal cold (compared to much of the past decade of Decembers!), and quite possibly some snow that's more than a dusting. If we urp up a hairball and don't get anything other than chapped skin from cold and dry, will I be disappointed? Yeah, of course, as will everyone here! I personally don't think that will occur (and I don't have a cat, but people in my family do, and an urped up hairball is disgusting!). But all the same...we have Jan-Feb-Mar left after this and I don't see us getting only diddly squat that whole time. Last year, we had the one early January event that mostly affected DC southward, and a nifty final event in mid-March. But last February sucked as did December. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z . That’s probably not good . But we could do a lot worse than that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z . And an interesting broad, sort of squashed, trough underneath the block and downstream of that ridge. Whether that's necessarily good, I'm not sure, but I like that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Quickly scrolls thru happy hour runs. Craving avocado toast and a beer. Be right back. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say. Imo what’s “winning” is complicated and depends. I think from a distance without knowing the synoptic details I would be happy with a 4” snow event as a general rule. But again, if 24 hours out were looking at a HECS and it falls apart to just 4” we all know none of us is feeling great from that. Then there is the macro v micro. In the micro I’ll be happy with a 4” snow on Dec 23. But at the end of the winter if all I got for the whole season was say 17” (which is a bottom 10% winter here) because we had a couple great patterns and all I got out of them was a few minor snowfalls…it’s a fail for the season. Getting a small snowfall is fine but at some point we need to cash in big and max out a good pattern if we want to have a good season. To make a baseball analogy…going into a good pattern like this is kinda like having the bases loaded with nobody out and you’re 4-5 hitters coming up. Let’s say they hit a sac fly and an infield single that gets in 2 runs. In the micro that’s fine. They did ok. Then your bottom of the lineup strikes out. Later the heart of the lineup comes up with 2 on and again they manage to get one run in. In the micro fine. But at the end of the game when you lose 5-3 you look back on that and realize you needed a 3 run homerun or a base clearing double somewhere in there. I’m fine with singles as long as once in a while we get that home run. Or at least a double! 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically. There was an arctic front in the 80s that dropped 7” in an hour some places in northeast MD with thunderstorms. So anything is possible. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z Improvements in both the PNA region and in blocking over Baffin Island as per the last 2 GEFS runs. If we are to believe that the GEFS has been handling the pacific domain better than the EPS during this blocking regime, this would be an ample test for that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was an arctic front in the 80s that dropped 7” in an hour some places in northeast MD with thunderstorms. So anything is possible. Yeap. January 25, 1985... The year that you're not too fond of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ji said: well whats crazy is if things are going this well in an amazing pattern....imagine how things will turn when we hit the typical Nina +AO,+NAO, +EPO Thats probably when we cash in with a fluke event. You know how it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z Are we still closing the blinds? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Tomer Burg feels the period near December 23 rd will have downstream cyclogensis, but feels currently the data favors inland locations. He did stress though this is based on the "current" data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Are we still closing the blinds? Still very much like the period from 12/20 to 1/10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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